Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the weekend’s Premier League and Sky Bet Championship action.
Infogol is a revolutionary football product, which harnesses Opta data to power an expected goals model. Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a scoring opportunity, allocating each chance a probability of it finding the back of the net.
The xG metric can be used to assess teams and their performances, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.
Derby v Blackburn
- Saturday at 15:00 BST
It has been a poor start to the new season for Phillip Cocu’s Derby, who have lost both league games against Reading and Luton.
Those opponents are expected to finish in the bottom half of the Championship based on Infogol’s forecast table, so the defeats - and the manner of them - is hugely concerning.
However, it makes more sense when we analyse how the Rams fared in the 19/20 season. They finished tenth in the league, but Derby ranked as the third-worst team based on xG, and it appears nothing has changed heading into this campaign.
They are defensively vulnerable, conceding 1.5 expected goals against (xGA) per game in 19/20, and allowing 2.0 xGA to Luton and 1.3 to Reading. That is not ideal when facing a Blackburn team who are full of confidence after racking up the chances last time out.
Tony Mowbray’s side suffered a 3-2 opening-day defeat at Bournemouth before bouncing back in emphatic fashion against newly-promoted Wycombe, racking up 3.5 expected goals for (xGF) in a 5-0 win.
Their new attacking set-up seems to be getting the best out of their players and I see no reason why Rovers can’t create opportunities against this Derby team – while also potentially allowing chances.
The Infogol model calculates that Over 2.5 Goals should be priced at odds-on, so the even money available is a value play.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at evens
West Brom v Chelsea
- Saturday at 17:30 BST
Approaching half-time last week, West Brom were well in their game against Everton, but that was despite looking extremely vulnerable defensively and relying on clinical finishing in attack.
Going down to ten men after going behind was a terrible way to end the half, and the result was a mere formality after that as the Baggies crumbled, giving up 3.8 xGA a week after allowing 3.0 xGA to Leicester.
They look well short of the standard required at this level, but they have been dealt a tough opening run of fixtures, playing a Leicester team who finished sixth in our xG table last season followed by Everton who sat seventh. They now they face a Chelsea team who ranked third in our xG table last term.
I was disappointed with Chelsea against Liverpool. They employed a defensively-minded approach, even prior to the red card shortly before half-time, and mustered just one shot equating to 0.05 xG in the first 45 minutes. In total, barring the penalty, Chelsea created a mere 0.2 xGF, while against Brighton they managed just 0.6 non-pen xGF.
Given the firepower at their disposal, Chelsea haven’t been good enough this season but, against a West Brom side with arguably the weakest defence in the league, they have a great opportunity to return to their free-flowing, attacking best.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Baggies nick a goal, either, and Over 2.5 Goals looks a solid play.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 8/13
Sheffield United v Leeds
- Sunday at 12:00 BST
Sheffield United suffered an early red card against Aston Villa on Monday, but they were as spirited as ever and there were plenty of positives to take, especially defensively, despite suffering a 1-0 loss.
Chris Wilder’s side limited Villa to just 1.0 xG and no ‘big chances’ (>35%) despite playing with ten men for nearly 80 minutes. They weren’t terrible against Wolves, they were just slow out of the blocks, so I can’t understand why anyone would be writing them off so early.
Leeds have been the entertainers so far this season, being involved in two 4-3s, winning one and losing the other.
They have been uncharacteristically clinical in front of goal so far. Last season they scored 77 times from chances equating to 87.0 xGF, so were wasteful, but this season they have scored seven times from just 1.8 xGF.
That level of clinical finishing is unsustainable over the course of a season, so don’t expect them to keep hitting the net at the same rate they have done, unless they start creating more and better chances.
I believe Marcelo Bielsa’s side will find it difficult to breach this Sheffield United defence, and so the Under 2.5 Goals appeals.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 8/11
Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday
- Sunday at 13:00 BST
Bristol City have had a dream start under new manager Dean Holden, winning both matches so far, including an impressive victory against a Stoke team many thought would be strong this season.
They have some tremendous attacking talent at their disposal, with the likes of Chris Martin, Famara Diedhiou and Nahki Wells supported by Andreas Weimann, Jamie Paterson and Niclas Eliasson.
Question marks remain defensively, however, as Coventry caused them all sorts of trouble on the opening day.
Sheffield Wednesday started the season on -12 points, pending the result of an appeal, and have looked solid under Garry Monk after a large turnover of players.
Games against Cardiff, who made the play-offs in 19/20, and Watford, who were relegated from the Premier League last season, looked a tough opening, but they have come through those matches with four points and two clean-sheets.
I expect the Owls to concede against an exciting Bristol City team, but I can see the visitors also causing problems. Over 2.5 Goals, at odds against, makes appeal.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 6/5
West Ham v Wolves
- Sunday at 19:00 BST
West Ham looked like a completely different team against Arsenal to the side that suffered a tame defeat at home to Newcastle, and David Moyes’s side were incredibly unfortunate to come away empty handed from their trip to the Emirates.
The Hammers racked up 2.3 xGF and allowed just 1.3 xGA, and they looked the better team on the eye-test too, showing signs of improvement after that disappointing opening-day defeat.
The question is which side will show up against Wolves this week? I think they might struggle against an impressive Wolves defence that could stifle Michail Antonio and co.
Wolves made a good fist of things against Manchester City on Monday. A City win was a fair result but Wolves had Pep Guardiola’s side on the ropes for 20 minutes in that second half.
Nuno’s side allowed just 1.2 non-pen xGA to a City team who averaged 2.4 non-pen xGF per game last season, which shows they are a solid defensive unit that will be tough to breach this season.
The last time these two sides met, Wolves won 2-0 in very convincing fashion at the London Stadium, limiting the Hammers to very little in the way of chances, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see history repeat itself. Under 2.5 Goals looks a solid bet.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13
Odds correct at 2100 BST (23/09/20)
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