Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Leny Yoro to commit 1+ fouls at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Leny Yoro to be shown a card at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Leny Yoro to be sent off at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 33/1
- Leny Yoro to be shown a card
- Manchester United 5+ corners
- Bruno Fernandes to score anytime
We're in relatively unknown territory. Entering April with Manchester United having no involvement in the title race has become common in recent years but the same can't be said for rivals City.
Pep Guardiola's side have failed to mount a serious defence of their Premier League crown. They trail leaders Liverpool by 22 points - the focus is on a spot in next season's Champions League.
United may be lingering down in 13th but recent performances have offered a glimmer of hope for the future. Ruben Amorim has a mammoth task on his hands to return this club towards the top end of the table but in the short-term, there's the potential for a strong end to the campaign.
And City are vulnerable. For once, the great Manchester City are vulnerable.
You could point to this being their last difficult game of the season though. They've maxed out games against those around and above them with Aston Villa (home) the only top-eight side left.
So defeat here may not be fatal in their chances of a top-five finish. That's good news, at least, because defeat could well be the outcome.
What are the best bets?
United weren't bad at all in a loss to Nottingham Forest last time out. It could have been a game where they easily secured at least a point on another day.
One player who did put in a solid performance was LENY YORO. The centre-back returned with three successful tackles and a 93% pass success rate.
He also committed a foul and the even money available for YORO TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS again here delivers appeal based on his showings this season.
It's been a disrupted campaign with injury but he has shown a decent return rate for this bet when involved from the start.
From eight Premier League starts, Yoro's seen at least one foul in five of them. In the Europa League, a foul has come in all three appearances - that includes the one as a second-half sub in the win over FCSB.
The positive of Yoro starting on the right side of the back-three is that he'll have to deal with Jeremy Doku. The pacy City winger can be a real problem for opposition defences.
But even if he's on the left, the tricky Savinho is likely to be there and he'll try to cut inside and get shots away. Whichever role Yoro plays, he should be busy against this talented attack.
And with the centre-back expected to commit a foul or two, I'll also side with the 5s available on YORO TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
Referee John Brooks has dished out at least four yellows in 12 of his 14 Premier League outings this season, with his seasonal average across all competitions standing at 4.85 cards per game.
He may not have shown a red this season but four did come in 22 top-flight outings in 23/24. A smaller stakes play is advised on the 66s for YORO TO BE SENT OFF too.
Yoro has previously seen red when playing for Lille's 'B' side a couple of years ago. I'm not overly fussed by career red rates given he's only 19 though - I'm happy enough with his average of 0.21 cards per 90 in league games across the past two seasons.
Team news
United head into the Manchester derby with a handful of first team players unavailable.
Defenders Jonny Evans, Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw all remain sidelined, with Kobbie Mainoo and Amad Diallo also not available for selection through injury.
The big blow for City is the absence of Erling Haaland for the next few weeks. Omar Marmoush is expected to continue in the striker role in his place.
Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake and John Stones are all still out, as is key midfielder Rodri.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United XI: Onana; Yoro, De Ligt, Mazraoui; Dalot, Casemiro, Ugarte, Dorgu; Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund.
Manchester City XI: Ederson; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O'Reilly; Nico, Kovacic; Savinho, Grealish, Doku; Marmoush.
Match facts
- Manchester United are looking to complete just their first Premier League double over Manchester City since 2019-20, following their 2-1 win at the Etihad Stadium in December.
- Manchester City have won more Premier League away games against Manchester United than any other side (9). Five of their nine wins have come under Pep Guardiola, the most of any visiting manager in the competition.
- Manchester United haven’t lost any of their last three meetings with Man City in all competitions (W2 D1), last having a longer run between January 2010 and February 2011 (4).
- The away team has won 10 of the last 18 Premier League meetings between Manchester United and Manchester City (D2 L6) and since the 2015-16 campaign, the only Premier League fixture with more away wins is Crystal Palace versus Liverpool (12).
- Manchester United have gone eight Premier League matches at Old Trafford without keeping a clean sheet, their longest run since a run of 12 between April and December 2021. They’ve shipped 17 in nine games under Ruben Amorim, with the Portuguese coach having the worst goals conceded per game ratio of any permanent Red Devils manager on home soil in the Premier League (1.89).
- Manchester City have lost six of their last 11 away Premier League matches (W3 D2), as many as they had in their previous 37 away games combined (W26 D5 L6). They’ve only lost more than six away games in one of the last 13 seasons (seven in 2019-20).
- Manchester United have picked up just two points in eight Premier League home games this season against sides starting the day in the top-half (D2 L6), scoring five and conceding 19 times in these matches.
- Ruben Amorim has won both meetings with Manchester City in all competitions this season, beating them in the Champions League with Sporting CP and the Premier League with Man Utd. He could become just the third manager to beat Pep Guardiola in three consecutive meetings, after Jürgen Klopp with Liverpool (twice) and Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in 2020-21.
- Erling Haaland has been directly involved in nine goals in eight appearances against Manchester United for Man City (6 goals, 3 assists), though he hasn’t scored or assisted in any of his last three against them.
- Bruno Fernandes has been involved in 21 goals at Old Trafford for Man Utd this season in all competitions (12 goals, 9 assists). If he assists in this game it’ll be third time he’s got both 10+ goals and 10+ assists in a season at Old Trafford (also 2020-21 and 2022-23), more than all other players combined since 1992-93: Dwight Yorke in 1998-99 (12G, 10A) and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2006-07 (14G, 11A).
Odds correct at 1145 BST (04/04/25)
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