Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Both teams to score at 11/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Nathan Ake 1+ total shot at 5/6 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/6
1pt Nico O'Reilly to be carded at 5/1 (bet365) - min price 7/2
Manchester City were incredibly impressive under the gun on Saturday, keeping up their side of the bargain by winning 3-0 at home to a European-challenging Brentford to keep the pressure on Arsenal.
The Gunners responded with an extremely controversial win at West Ham, which leaves City in a bit of a predicament ahead of this game.
That's because their chances of winning the title now feel extremely slim, the Gunners priced at 1/6, with Arsenal hosting Burnley next up before a trip to Selhurst Park in a game that comes literally three days before a European final for Crystal Palace, with Oliver Glasner already setting out his stall that he will rotate in that game.
So that isn't in City's favour, and nor is the fact that they play in the FA Cup final on Saturday, before visiting a red-hot Bournemouth next midweek ahead of the final day. That's a lot of high-intensity football for Pep and his team in just two weeks, but it would have been all the more manageable had West Ham's late equaliser stood.
Glasner's team selection here will be interesting too. He rotated somewhat at the weekend from the Conference League semi-final second leg win, but with a game on Sunday followed by Arsenal at home on the final day and the UECL final three days after, it'll be interesting to see how we approaches things.
I can't help but think the price of a home win is ludicrously short at 2/9, but rather than chance a Palace result - I've done that recently on the weekend the Eagles went to Bournemouth... it didn't go well - I think backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is value at 11/10.
City were imperious against Brentford, conceding just four shots in a comfortable 3-0 win, but the defensive cracks are still there and for whatever reason, Pep just really doesn't enjoy facing Glasner, it's always a tough game.
Pep has won three of the five head-to-head meetings, but the Eagles have scored in four of them, scored multiple times in three of them, and beat City in the biggest of the five meetings in last season's FA Cup final.
Palace have created 1.34 xGF per game against City in that run, so are more than capable of creating chances and getting on the scoresheet against them again, though defensively they themselves are gettable. In that same sample City have averaged 2.33 xGF per game.
We'll also focus on Crystal Palace's weaknesses from set-pieces. We saw it again at the weekend as James Tarkowski scored for Everton, while his centre-back partner also managed a shot, so at 5/6 we should back NATHAN AKE 1+ TOTAL SHOT.
Palace have conceded the fifth-most shots, goals and xG from set-pieces this season, and while City are mid-pack from attacking set-pieces, the fact that they will be the aggressors needing to win this game should mean they get plenty of corners and free-kicks to take advantage of.
Last time out against Brentford, the third best team at defending set-pieces, Ake managed two shots from dead-ball situations, with that the seventh time in his last 11 starts that the Dutchman has managed a shot. He's 10/1 to score anytime for those interested (Coral, Ladbrokes).
The referee appointment here is excellent for card backers, with Stuart Attwell the man in the middle. He's averaged 4.74 cards per game in the Premier League this season, and at the prices it was NICO O'REILLY who stood out TO BE CARDED at 5/1.
We are taking a chance on team news for both teams, that O'Reilly will start at left-back and that he'll be up against Daniel Munoz and Ismaila Sarr in his channel, but I'm willing to take the swing that all three will start.
O'Reilly has eight cards to his name this season across all competitions, including last weekend in the comfortable win over Brentford. We are at the tense part of the season, so it's not a surprise to see a player booked late on for a team in such a commanding position, and a similar occurance wouldn't surprise in midweek.
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (11/05/26)
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