Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 534pts | Returned 574.55pts | P/L +40.55pts | ROI 7.6%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Friday 20:00 - Aston Villa vs Liverpool
1pt Ibrahima Konate to be carded at 11/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 2/1
1pt Curtis Jones to be carded at 9/2 (Betway) - min price 2/1
Sunday 12:30 - Man Utd vs N Forest
1.5pts Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 2/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/4
0.5pt Bruno Fernandes 2+ assist at 12/1 (Boylesports) - min price 7/1
***Sunday 15:00, 17:30 and Monday bets to follow
We really are on the home straight now with just two rounds of matches to go in the Premier League, and there is still plenty to play for.
Arsenal and Manchester City are battling for the title, a good five teams are in the race for Europe and Tottenham and West Ham are fighting to avoid relegation.
It's exciting, especially compared to recent seasons which have lacked jeopardy as the season comes to a close.
Last week saw us net over +3pts profit which will do nicely, and with it being FA Cup final weekend, we have only eight games to focus on in this column, starting on Friday as Aston Villa host Liverpool, with six games following on Sunday and Arsenal rounding the weekend off with a home game against Burnley.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
The dynamics of this game are tough to gauge in my opinion. A win for either team guarantees a top five finish and Champions League football, but with the Europa League final just five days after this, Aston Villa could rotate heavily, and then there is a case to be made a draw could suit both.
Bournemouth are the chasers, and draw in this match would mean the Cherries needing maximum points from their last two games at home to Manchester City and away at Nottingham Forest to have any chance of catching either Villa or Liverpool, putting serious pressure on.
A Villa defeat could prove very costly for their top five chances as it would really open the door for Bournemouth, especially with Unai Emery taking his side to the Etihad on the final day. Of course, if they win the UEL, nothing else really matters.
Emery went strong last weekend at Burnley after his side swept Nottingham Forest aside in the second-leg of their semi-final, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go strong from the start again here - before subbing key players off early - in a bid to wrap up UCL football via the league route and ease some pressure on winning the UEL.
After all, this Liverpool team are no great shakes - especially away from home. Across all competitions the Reds have lost six of their last eight away games, with two wins coming at Wolves in the FA Cup and in the Merseyside derby thanks to a 100th minute goal.
Whatever happens I think this game will be competitive, and with a good referee in Chris Kavanagh (4.04 cards per game this season), we'll hit our tried and tested card angle when Villa are involved.
While neither Burnley's right-back or centre-back were carded last weekend, the pair committed three fouls between them, so that result wasn't too discouraging. After all. splitting stakes on the RB and RCB to be carded would have delivered profit in 12 of Villa's last 14 league games.
So, that means IBRAHIMA KONATE and CURTIS JONES are backed TO BE CARDED at 11/4 and 9/2 respectively. Konate has been booked six times in the Premier League this season, nine across all competitions, while Jones has been carded once in his last four starts at right back, committing six fouls, and will be properly tested here.
Keep an eye on team news ahead of kick-off as there is a chance Joe Gomez plays centre-back in place of Konate, with the Frenchman coming off after 77 minutes last weekend with what is thought to be cramp. He should be fine, but if Gomez starts, cash out on Konate and back him instead - he was booked as a sub last week.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 09:20 BST (14/05/26)
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Sunday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
A dead rubber for both teams means this game could be quite fun. Well, I hope so, as I thought the same last week as Manchester United went to Sunderland, only for that game to end goalless...
United have been an excellent home team under Michael Carrick, scoring far more goals in front of their own fans, netting 18 in eight, which makes me believe this could be the game that sees goals and that leads me right back to BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST. Likely for the last time this season.
He is still one assist away from equalling the Premier League record of 20, and two away from breaking it, so in the final home game of the season United as a team will be doing everything in their power to get him at least one, if not two, assists against a Nottingham Forest side who don't have anything left to play for after securing survival last weekend.
It's 2/1 for Bruno to get the one assist, and to say he played with the second-string last week at the Stadium of Light - Joshua Zirkzee in for Benjamin Sesko and Amad Diallo for Bryan Mbeumo - he still created four chances, that after creating six chances against Liverpool.
While not registering an assist in either game, he has racked up 1.04 expected assists, so has been banging on the door, so much so we'll row in again on the 12/1 for 2+ ASSISTS because I would be sick if he did it in this game and we weren't on board.
Please, Bruno, don't let us down.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 12:20 BST (14/05/26)
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