Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 495.50pts | Returned 539.16pts | P/L +43.66pts | ROI 9%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Friday 20:00 - Leeds v Burnley
0.5pt Pascal Struijk to score anytime at 9/1 (Betway) - min price 6/1
0.5pt Jaka Bijol to score anytime at 9/1 (Betway) - min price 6/1
****Saturday, Sunday and Monday bets to follow
BBRRRUUUNNNOOOOO!
At this rate we may have to buy a Bruno Fernandes shirt. The Portuguese maestro has assisted nearly every time we've backed him, and the great man delivered again last week to make it a profitable gameweek 34.
It was a +4pt weekend to get us back on track, and there are some cracking matches to get stuck into in gameweek 35.
Leeds vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds' five-game unbeaten run has seen them reach 40 points, and it feels as though one more win will secure their Premier League status given both West Ham and Tottenham have started to pick up points.
Luckily for them, they get to face relegated Burnley at home, a side winless in eight league games and one that has lost 12 of 17 away games, conceding a league-high 42 goals on their travels. It's been another miserable Premier League season so it's no surprise to see Scott Parker being moved on.
A home win is priced accordingly at 4/9, and while Leeds -1 handicap did catch the eye at 6/5, I think this game looks ripe for a centre-back scorer given the set-piece mismatch we should witness.
Leeds have scored the third most set-piece goals in the league this season (15) and racked up the fifth-most xG from dead-balls (15.00), while Burnley have faced the fifth-most set-piece shots and third-most xG (15.78).
First up for us then is PASCAL STRUIJK TO SCORE ANYTIME at 9/1. The Dutchman is yet to score this season but it's not for a lack of trying.
He's taken 29 shots, 0.97 per 90, this term and accumulated 2.89 xG, with his 0.10 xG per 90 a very solid figure for a centre-back. At Elland Road he's had at least on shot in 13 of 16 starts too.
We'll also chance JAKA BIJOL TO SCORE ANYTIME at the same price. He's scored once this season, at home against Chelsea, and is averaging 0.87 shots per 90 too.
Score prediction: Leeds 3-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 11:20 BST (30/04/26)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.