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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 19

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Tue December 30, 2025 · 17h ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 221.50pts | Returned 249.05pts | P/L +27.55pts | ROI 12.4%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Tuesday 19:30

1pt Kyle Walker to be carded in Burnley vs Newcastle at 9/2 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Joao Pedro to score anytime in Chelsea vs Bournemouth at 19/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Joao Pedro to score 2+ goals at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Justin Kluivert to be carded in Chelsea vs Bournemouth at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Igor Jesus to win 3+ fouls in Forest vs Everton at 11/4 (bet365)

2pts Yasin Ayari 2+ total shots in West Ham vs Brighton at 11/10 (bet365)

1pt Yasin Ayari 3+ total shots in West Ham vs Brighton at 10/3 (bet365)

0.5pt Yasin Ayari 4+ total shots in West Ham vs Brighton at 9/1 (bet365)

Tuesday 20:15

1.5pts Ian Maatsen to commit 2+ fouls in Arsenal vs Aston Villa at 8/5 (William Hill)

1pt Mateus Mane 1+ shot on target outside the box in Man Utd vs Wolves at 10/3 (bet365)

Thursday 17:30

1pt Justin Devenny to score anytime in C Palace vs Fulham at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)

1.5pts Jaka Bijol 1+ total shot in Liverpool vs Leeds at 6/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Jaka Bijol to score anytime in Liverpool vs Leeds at 20/1 (Betway)

Thursday 20:00

1pt Michael Kayode to win 2+ fouls in Brentford vs Tottenham at 3/1 (bet365)

3pts Josko Gvardiol to commit 1+ foul in Sunderland vs Man City at 8/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

A frustrating round of post-Christmas results. We made a negligible profit (+0.14pts) with a few bad beats.

Kyle Walker fouls and card was beaten before kick-off with the news of Jack Grealish's absence, while somehow Palace vs Spurs went under 2.5 despite two disallowed goals - both for our man Richarlison - and a raft of missed Palace chances.

Hopefully we get the rub of the green for this midweek round of fixtures, split with six games on Tuesday and four on Thursday.

Burnley vs Newcastle

At first glance Newcastle look a big price at 4/6, but the Magpies are poor away from home, winning just one of nine. Instead, with a decent referee appointment (Rob Jones - 5.0 cards per game last eight), we'll wade back in on KYLE WALKER TO BE CARDED.

We are getting 9/2 here as he comes up against Anthony Gordon, with the former City full-back having already accumulated five cards and committed 1.31 fouls per 90.

Gordon is drawing 2.30 fouls per 90 and did draw a card from Walker in the reverse game at the start of December, and I suspect the visitors will go for it more than they have in recent away games just due to the drop in level of opponent.

Even if Walker plays as a right wing back, I suspect he'll face Gordon a few times in the match, and will also have Lewis Hall to deal with who has drawn 1.67 fouls per 90.

Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth are in disarray. They are winless in nine league games, losing five, while away from home they have just one win in nine this season.

The most concerning thing is the amount of goals they are shipping on their travels - a league high 27. Andoni Iraola's side have conceded 2+ goals in eight of nine, 3+ in seven of nine and 4+ in four of nine.

Chelsea should be in for a fair few goals then, making the 19/10 about their starting striker and top scorer, JOAO PEDRO, TO SCORE ANYTIME a cracking bet.

Granted the Blues aren't exactly in great form themselves (one win in six league games), but they do have the capability to create an abundance of chances, and should against this Bournemouth backline.

Joao Pedro scored last time out in defeat to Aston Villa, and while that was fortuitous, he has now scored in three of his last four starts for Chelsea, netting seven in all competitions.

He leads the Blues for goals and xG this season, as well as xG per 90 among players to have played 500 or more minutes, so for him to be the third most likely to score in this game doesn't make sense.

With Bournemouth conceding an average of 3.0 goals per game, we'll also back him TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 12/1 too. He managed a brace in the Club World Cup against Fluminense, and did fire one for Brighton against Leicester last season, three the season before and two in the season before that in the Championship.

We'll also take a CARD punt here given the foul-heavy nature of both teams, and JUSTIN KLUIVERT's price of 4/1 looks big. The Dutchman loves a card, picking up four already this season at an average of 0.48 cards per 90, committing 1.78 fouls per 90.

A decent referee appointment (Sam Barrott has averaged 4.1 cards per game this season) is a boost for this bet, as is the opponents he will be tasked with pressing - Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo.

Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

Nottingham Forest vs Everton

IGOR JESUS is fast becoming one of the league's best foul drawers. The Nottingham Forest frontman has won 16 fouls in his last seven appearances at an average of 2.47 per 90.

He's WON 3+ FOULS in four of those and is worth a small bet to do so again here at 11/4.

Everton have two combative centre-backs and two holding midfielders who aren't afraid to dish it out to the opposing striker, and Jesus is happy to go down at the slightest contact.

Add in the fact Forest will be after revenge after getting thrashed 3-0 at the Hill Dickinson Stadium a few weeks ago, an embarassing result for manager Sean Dyche on his return to Everton, and the hosts should be bang up for this.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

West Ham vs Brighton

With no Carlos Baleba, YASIN AYARI is getting a good run in the Brighton starting XI and he is delivering for shot backers.

In his last two starts he's taken a whopping nine shots, so against a struggling West Ham team who have conceded the most shots in the entire league (276 - 15.3 per game), we'll back him to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at a very appealing 11/10 price with Super Sub. Better prices are available at Coral and Ladbrokes (5/4), with William Hill also a touch bigger (23/20) but none offer super sub on this market.

He's averaging 2.29 shots per 90 in the league this season, so this price looks massive. The Swede has started 13 league games and landed this bet eight times for a healthy 62% strike rate.

At 10/3 and 9/1, we'll also chance 3+ and 4+ TOTAL SHOTS with super sub available on bet365.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

A big game in the title race which means a high intensity and a lot of fouls. Bukayo Saka has been excellent at drawing fouls down Arsenal's right (2.39 per 90), and that means Aston Villa left-back IAN MAATSEN is set for a difficult evening.

The Dutchman is 8/5 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS and that looks a tad big. He's averaged only 1.04 fouls per 90 this season but did foul Saka twice in the reverse and will be under intense pressure at the Emirates as the Gunners look to end 2025 with a bang.

Tom Carnduff has previewed this game in much more detail on site for those who want a better read on the big game.

Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

Manchester United vs Wolves

Winless. Two points from a possible 54. It's been a bad start to the season for Wolves to say the least. Well, it's a record-breakingly bad start to a league season across the top four tiers of English football...

It probably won't get any better either as they head to Old Trafford to face an in-form Manchester United, but my attentions have been drawn to 18-year-old Wolves forward MATEUS MANE.

The youngster was thrust into the starting XI at Anfield last time out and played the full 90 minutes, impressing in the process, enough to likely keep his place for this game.

He had a whopping four shots against Liverpool, with all of those coming from outside the box and two of those hitting the target, so at 10/3, I'm willing to see if he is a shoot-on-sight merchant and back him to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.

In his 181 minutes of Premier League action he has taken five shots in total, all from outside the box with three hitting the target.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

Crystal Palace vs Fulham

It's been a rough few weeks for Crystal Palace and a good few for Fulham, with the pair now separated by only goal difference.

The Eagles have absentee and tiredness issues but we'll hope Oliver Glasner sticks with JUSTIN DEVENNY and he continues to play off the striker, making the 11/2 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME value.

Palace are still creating a load of chances, with finishing a major issue, but Devenny will get chances and he's shown he has a knack of getting into good scoring positions.

Across all competitions he's averaging 3.02 shots and 0.48 xG per 90 with two goals to his name, and he is the designated penalty taker if Jean-Philippe Mateta isn't on the pitch.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

Liverpool vs Leeds

Set. Piece. Mismatch.

Leeds head to Anfield as the league leaders in set-piece goals scored (12) and xG created from set-pieces (9.23 - 0.51 per game).

The Reds conceded again from a dead-ball against Wolves last weekend to join Bournemouth at the top of the goals conceded from set-piece charts with 12, so we have to take a swing here.

Leeds' centre-back JAKA BIJOL looks a massive price to have just 1+ TOTAL SHOT and TO SCORE ANYTIME at 6/4 and 20/1 respectively.

He had two shots on target against Sunderland last time out and scored against Chelsea earlier in December, proving he is a threat to a vulnerable Liverpool team.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

Brentford vs Tottenham

We have El Frankio at the Gtech as Brentford look for revenge having been beaten comfortably by their former manager in the reverse game.

MICHAEL KAYODE has a lethal long throw, but his foul-drawing abilities are going under the radar, and we'll back him TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 3/1.

He's averaged 1.20 fouls per 90 over the season, but across his last 10 league starts that figure has jumped to 1.67, with the 2+ bet landing in half of those.

That alone makes the price available here huge, as does the fact that one of those 10 games was at Spurs where he was fouled four times.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

Sunderland vs Manchester City

Manchester City are rolling right now, but Sunderland remain unbeaten at the Stadium of Light, meaning this could be a tough test for Pep Guardiola's side. I expect them to pass it though.

We can confidently predict that Brian Brobbey will be a handful for City's defenders, winning an average of 2.32 fouls per 90.

He can contribute to JOSKO GVARDIOL COMMITTING 1+ FOUL, with the Croat increasing his propensity to do the dirty in recent months.

Gvardiol has committed at least one foul in 10 of his last 12 starts for City in all competitions, averaging 1.70 fouls per 90.

The price of 8/11 doesn't reflect the likelihood of Gvardiol adding another foul game to his record, with the same bet 4/11 in places. For those wanting a ladder, it's 3/1 (bet365) for 2+ which has landed in four of those last 12.

Score prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 00:00 (30/12/25)

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