Football betting tips: Europa League
0.5pt AZ Alkmaar to win at 12/5 (bet365, William Hill)
BuildABet @ 9/1
- AZ Alkmaar to win
- Both teams to score
- James Maddison to win 3+ fouls
- Seiya Maikuma 1+ total shot
Tottenham's entire season hinges on the Europa League.
Ange Postecoglou's side sit 13th in the Premier League, some 13 points behind fifth-placed Chelsea and 10 behind seventh-placed Bournemouth with just 11 games to go, and having been knocked out of both domestic cup competitions, their chances of winning a trophy and qualifying for Europe next season lie solely in this competition.
That's some pressure isn't it, especially for a club with a history of choking under such pressure. It would be peak-Spursy-ness were Tottenham eliminated at this stage of the competition wouldn't it... Though I don't think any of us would be majorly shocked, even if they are the bookies favourites to win the whole thing (9/2).
In the last 16, they take on an AZ Alkmaar team they have already beaten this season in the league phase, but one who look extremely dangerous, especially at home.
What are the best bets?
The Dutch side boast a W14, D2, L4 record at home this season, with three of their defeats coming after a midweek Europa League match, and remain unbeaten in front of their own fans in this competition (W4, D1).
They've beaten some solid teams too, dispatching Jose Mourinho's Fenerbache, Claudio Ranieri's Roma and a star-studded Galatasaray. It's not too much of a stretch to think they can beat Spurs, and at the prices, I'll have a small bet on them to do so, with AZ ALKMAAR TO WIN worth a go.
The Dutch side were only narrowly beaten 1-0 by Spurs in London during the league phase, with that Spurs XI not a million miles away from the one that will play on Thursday, so will take confidence from that display that saw them lose to a penalty.
Manager Maarten Martens will have been pleased with what he has seen in this competition so far, with AZ's underlying performance (+0.15 xGD per game) slightly better than Spurs' (+0.11) across the league phase despite a slightly tougher schedule.
AZ faced four sides still in the competition and two who made it to the play-off round, Spurs faced three who are still in the competition and two who made it to the play-off round.
In the play-off round the Dutch side dismantled a Galatasaray team who beat Spurs in the league phase, winning 4-1 in Alkmaar after a dominant display (xG: AZ 3.65 - 0.52 GAL) before drawing 2-2 in Turkey, highlighting their attacking firepower which can definitely hurt Spurs.
The visitors are slowly reaching full strength but are still missing their starting centre-backs Micky van de Ven and Christian Romero, meaning Archie Gray and Kevin Danso will again be partnered, providing the hosts with real belief.
Postecoglou's men have been really poor travellers of late too. Across their last 16 away matches in all competitions, they've lost nine times, winning only five. Those five came against Manchester City at the start of their drop-off, bottom side Southampton, Bundesliga strugglers Hoffenheim, Brentford in a game they conceded nearly 2.0 xG and third-bottom Ipswich.
While not at all on Ange, Spurs' recent history when travelling in European knockout games is terrible too, winning just three of 18, losing 10. Classic Spurs.
At the prices, chancing the hosts to take a first leg lead to London appeals.
Team news
AZ Alkmaar are missing midfielder Sven Mijnans and Jayden Addai, while Ruben van Bommel and Mexx Meerdink are unlikely to play.
Zico Buurmeester should again start in front of Jordy Clasie and Peer Koopmeiners, with former Tottenham striker Troy Parrott expected to lead the line.
Tottenham are likely to be without Dejan Kulusevski for this game, with Dominic Solanke and Richarlison also out. Antonin Kinsky, Fraser Forster, Timo Werner and Sergio Reguilon are all ineligible after being left out of Spurs' Europa League squad.
Both Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero could feature here with both taking part in training, while Ben Davies will be touch and go. Kevin Danso and Mathys Tel should both make their first European starts for the club.
Predicted line-ups
AZ Alkmaar: Owusu-Oduro; Maikuma, Goes, Penetra, De Wit; Clasie, Koopmeiners; Poku, Buurmeester, Lahdo; Parrott
Tottenham: Vicario; Spence, Gray, Danso, Udogie; Maddison, Bissouma, Sarr; Johnson, Tel, Son
Match facts
- This is the second European meeting between AZ and Tottenham Hotspur, with Spurs winning the first game 1-0 on MD3 of this season’s UEFA Europa League group stage.
- Spurs have won seven of their last 11 major European matches against Dutch sides (D2 L2), with this their first knockout meeting since beating Ajax 3-2 in May 2019 in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-final to reach the final.
- AZ have scored 19 UEFA Europa League goals this season, with only three teams netting more. They haven’t scored 20+ goals in a major European season since 2006-07 (26).
- Spurs have won three of their last 18 away legs in major European ties (D5 L10), losing their last two without scoring since a 4-1 win at RZ Pellets WAC in February 2021.
- Son Heung-Min has scored seven major European knockout goals for Tottenham Hotspur – this century, the only player with more is Dimitar Berbatov (12).
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (05/03/25)
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