Derby and Coventry meet in a Saturday lunchtime Midlands derby both desperate for points for different reasons in the Sky Bet Championship. Michael Beardmore picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pts Callum O’Hare 1+ shots on target at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Callum O’Hare 2+ shots on target at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Few clubs will sympathise as much with Derby’s current plight as Midlands neighbours Coventry ahead of Saturday lunchtime’s meeting between the sides.
The Sky Blues have had their share of off-pitch problems over the past decade – culminating in a unthinkable, if brief, spell in League Two.
Resurgent under Mark Robins, however, they are now eyeing a third promotion in five seasons and an unlikely return to the Premier League after two decades out of the top flight, sitting five points outside the Sky Bet Championship play-off spots.
Derby’s need for points is even more desperate, sitting six points adrift of safety with just eight games to play and staring relegation to the third tier for the first time since 1986 firmly in the face.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Derby 2/1 | Draw 11/5 | Coventry 7/5
Stakes are high then at Pride Park and the bookmakers’ odds show how tough this one is to call, very little separating all three outright outcomes in the market.
Coventry are slight favourites but I feel the bookies have underestimated the Rams a tad here – without their 21-point deduction, they would only be nine points behind the Sky Blues.
Yes, Derby have lost five of their past six but four of those were away – their home record has been excellent, winning six and drawing two of their past 10 in front of their own supporters.
Coventry have blown hot and cold for a while as evidenced by their recent away results – LWLWLW – so the result is best swerved. But, if you must, Derby, at home, would get my vote.
I fully expect a tight game – most Derby matches have been thus this season – but one man I want onside in this one is livewire Coventry playmaker Callum O’Hare.
The former Aston Villa man does not get as many goals as he should given his ability – just six in the past two seasons – but it is not for the want of trying as he gets into good positions and likes a pop.
That has been particularly evident in recent weeks and the stats suggest that Sky Bet’s 6/5 on O’HARE TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET is somewhat on the generous side.
The 23-year-old has tested the keeper in 10 of his past 15 games, registering 17 shots on target in those games – including a whopping five on target as he netted twice in the 4-1 win over Sheffield United. He's in the mood.
O’Hare’s team-mate Gustavo Hamer is of similar ilk but less prolific letting fly and he’s 4/5 for a shot or more on target – that’s what O’Hare should be, tops, so odds-against simply must be snapped up.
It’s also worth a small play on O’HARE TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET – as he has done in four of those aforementioned 15 games, making the 13/2 on offer, again, look a tad on the large side.
Derby concede, on average, 11.4 shots per home game and only Fulham can beat Coventry’s average of 4.5 shots on target per away game.
With Coventry front two Viktor Gyokeres and Matty Godden understandably short in scorer and shots markets, it should pay to back number 10 O’Hare to continue his habit of troubling the keeper.
Derby v Coventry best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Callum O’Hare 1+ shots on target at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts Callum O’Hare 2+ shots on target at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Derby 2-1 Coventry (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1450 GMT (17/03/22)
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