Football betting tips: Champions League final
Jake Osgathorpe
2.5pts Under 2.5 goals at evens (General)
0.5pt Arsenal to keep a clean sheet at 14/5 (William Hill)
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
1.5pts Under 2.5 goals and under 2.5 cards at 13/2 (bet365)
1pt No first goalscorer at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Under 1.5 cards and team to recieve most cards 'tie' at 51/1 (Betfair)
0.5pt No first goalscorer, under 1.5 cards and team to recieve most cards 'tie' at 271/1 (Betfair)
*All bets in 90 minutes
Arsenal could cap off a coming of age season in the most emphatic way possible by winning the Champions League against the reigning champions PSG.
Both sides will be well rested here after over a week off, meaning there should be no tired legs, with an intense and high-energy game expected in Budapest.
Mikel Arteta's side are priced as outsiders to win the game in 90 minutes (11/5) and lift the trophy (13/10), which is hugely surprising to me, and I make both value for those wanting to get involved with the Gunners in the final, especially as they have got the monkey off their back by winning the Premier League - they'll be full of confidence.
I would argue that, if you'd asked Luis Enrique who we didn't want in the final, it would be Arsenal, with the Gunners undoubtedly the best defensive team in world football and the best out-of-possession side. PSG's free-flowing attack could be stifled.
That was obvious in last season's semi-finals too, where despite missing a number of key players, Arsenal were more than a match for PSG over two legs, creating by far the better chances, winning the two-legged xG battle 4.54 - 2.90.
On that occasion there was no Gabriel, with Jakub Kiwior playing at centre-back, no Thomas Partey for the first leg and no striker available, with both Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus injured, playing Leandro Trossard and Mikel Merino up front instead.
This time around Arsenal are fully fit and have improved their XI and squad, possessing incredible strength in depth to make them a formidable opponent across 120 minutes.
PSG have an abundance of attacking talent and have scored for fun in their last three knockout ties against Chelsea, Liverpool and Bayern Munich - netting 18 in total - but the defensive standards of those three sides aren't anywhere close to Arsenal, and it's worth noting that Les Parisiens racked up that many goals thanks to some eye-wateringly clinical finishing.
Across those six outings, PSG generated just 8.4 xG yet found the net 18 times, averaging 12.3 shots per 90 and 1.40 xG per 90, though their 50% shot on target rate likely has a lot to do with their overperformance.
I don't think they'll get the opportunities they did in those three ties here against a much better defensive side, and while this could come back to bite me, I think there is value in backing ARSENAL TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET at 14/5.
An Arsenal win to nil is 9/2 for those who like me think the Gunners get the job done, but taking just PSG failing to score protects us from a potential 0-0.
Along similar lines, at even money, we'll also back UNDER 2.5 GOALS. I just don't see how a final involving Arsenal will go goal-crazy.
Their defence and midfield will be hell-bent on stopping PSG from creating anything, while they continue to find it hard to create open-play chances, relying on set-pieces to get them over the line. That could well be the case again here.
It's worth noting that six of the last seven Champions League finals have gone under 2.5 goals, with last season's final the only one that has gone over. I'd argue that was more to do with the teams in the final, as a vibrant, youthful and energetic PSG team took on a slow and old Inter team and simply ran rings around them.
This will be much more even, with Arsenal a far more mobile unit to be able to deal with what PSG have to throw at them.
Given we are holding Arsenal to win the Champions League tickets at 8/1, let's hope the Gunners get the job done.
Score prediction: PSG 0-1 Arsenal
Sticking along a similar thread to Jake, I am going to dust off the usual final gambits.
- NO FIRST GOALSCORER
- UNDER 1.5 CARDS AND TEAM TO RECEIVE MOST CARDS ‘TIE’
- UNDER 2.5 GOALS AND UNDER 2.5 CARDS
- NO FIRST GOALSCORER AND UNDER 1.5 CARDS AND TEAM TO RECEIVE MOST CARDS ‘TIE’
Referee Daniel Siebert has had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde campaign in terms of cards, some games he can’t keep them in his pocket and others it looks like he’s left them in the changing room.
In 33 appearances, Siebert has overseen six games to have two cards or fewer and the same total have seven or more.
His average in the Champions League is 4.66 per game and brandished 7-1-3 in his last three appearances.
The high total came in Tottenham’s second leg win over Atletico Madrid and the other two were for the Gunners 1-0 wins against Sporting Lisbon and Atleti.
The last eight Champions League finals have averaged 3.25 cards a game, with highs of eight, and three to have one card or fewer.
Over the same sample, six of the games have seen two goals or fewer with half of the games ending 1-0 with the card and goal unders in two of those.
So, all the usual cliches about finals apply here. Tight, cagey and a game neither wants to lose.
I have no doubt PSG will want to take the game to Arsenal, Mikel Arteta on the other hand will be more than happy to make his side very difficult to beat.
And in a battle between a free-flowing attacking side and stoic defence, it’s usually the latter which prevails, so play the occasion not the game here.
That said, in the knock-out stage of the Champions League, all six of Arsenal’s games have gone under 2.5 goals and four of those games have seen one card or fewer flashed.
Plus, both PSG and Arsenal received the fewest cards in their respective leagues this season.
Score prediction: PSG 0-0 Arsenal
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (29/05/26)
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