Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Abdukodir Khusanov to be carded at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Boylesports)
1pt Rico Lewis to be carded at 8/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Brentford have made a decent fist of the Carabao Cup in recent seasons, more so than the FA Cup.
Since their Championship promotion winning campaign, they have reached at least the quarter finals in four of the last six seasons, a quite impressive feat. They've made it no further than round four of the FA Cup in that time.
But, they face an extremely tough quarter-final with a trip to an in form Manchester City. Pep Guardiola's side haven't won the Carabao Cup since the 2020/21 season, with Pep's 'roulette' seeing them fail to recapture their Carabao magic of his early tenure - when they lifted the trophy in four straight seasons from 2017/18.
The Cityzens are understandably short to win in 90 minutes (2/5) and to qualify (2/9), but they've made hard work of the Bees in recent meetings. City only won 1-0 at the Gtech Community Stadium earlier this season and were held there 2-2 last season, while only edging to a 2-1 win at the Etihad last season.
It won't be easy, especially as Pep will likely rotate in the midst of a heavy schedule. Brentford meanwhile should be full-strength having a light schedule in comparison, and they will fancy their chances.
From a betting perspective, I was initially heading towards the 'no card' angle, but the referee appointment had me pulling a U-turn. Sam Barrott is the man in the middle and he's averaged 4.3 cards per game this season after 4.8 per game last season, and he doesn't shy away in cup games either.
Across his last 23 Carabao or FA Cup matches, Barrott has averaged 3.4 cards per game, but in his last five that ramps up to 5.0 per game.
It could get tasty. There were five cards in the league meeting earlier this season and Brentford's away Carabao game at Bournemouth earlier in the competition saw four yellows and a red. City's cup games do tend to be low-card games but now at the business end of the tournament, with a good ref and a dangerous opponent, we'll take a few chances on player cards at huge prices.
Now, we have to caveat these picks by saying there is a chance they don't start, but I'm leaning towards Pep making a fair few changes and so we'll back RICO LEWIS and ABDUKODIR KHUSANOV TO BE CARDED at 8/1 and 13/2 respectively.
Lewis has played all 180 minutes of City's Carabao campaign so far against Swansea and Huddersfield and while he isn't the best card collector, he does average 0.25 cards per 90 across the last season and a half - picking up two reds in that time.
That makes 8/1 look simply massive, especially as, should he be at right-back as anticipated, he'll be up against the lightening quick Kevin Schade or Dango Oauttara.
Khusanov continues to look like a walking card whenever he gets the nod, and so far in his career, he has been. Since making his debut at Lens in 2023, he's averaged 0.36 cards per 90 which would give us a blanket card price of 9/5.
This is a cup game so that would be extreme, but we are getting 13/2 here which looks massive, especially with him set to be up against Igor Thiago who is an absolute physical handful.
We'll chance both at big prices in the hope that they get the nod, and that Barrott brings his cards.
Odds correct at 15:50 GMT (15/12/25)
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