Manchester City travel to Bournemouth for Saturday's evening kick-off and Tom Carnduff is backing two goalscorers at big prices.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Ruben Dias to score anytime at 20/1 (Unibet)
1pt Rodri to score anytime at 10/1 (Unibet)
Manchester City's midweek trip to Germany was a relatively successful one, with Pep Guardiola's side avoiding defeat in a 1-1 draw with RB Leipzig.
They could have easily been well ahead at the break given their dominance on the ball. Riyad Mahrez's goal - which capitalised on a mistake from the opposition - gave them the advantage at the break.
Focus turns back to their pursuit of yet another Premier League crown. Even after last week's disappointing draw at Nottingham Forest, City will be fully confident of a comfortable victory against Bournemouth.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Bournemouth 9/1 | Draw 19/4 | Manchester City 2/7
Predicting England's dominant force to brush aside a team who were only promoted last season is hardly a revolutionary take. City are 2/7 and easily won 4-0 in the reverse fixture at the beginning of the campaign.
While the dropped points in Nottingham last week damaged City's title hopes, they did enough to win and more. They created chances equating to 3.21 xG yet failed to capitalise. Forest, to their credit, made the most of their late opportunity.
It shouldn't be a repeat in Saturday's late-ish kick-off (thanks to Palace and Liverpool for taking the 'late game' tag this week). City could well be trailing Arsenal by five points given the Gunners get underway at 3pm - further slip-ups are no longer an option.
The attacking displays from RODRI in City's last two games makes him an appealing ANYTIME GOALSCORER play at a best price of 10/1.
The midfielder had a huge total of four shots in the Champions League draw in midweek, while there were two last weekend.
That pair of efforts in the draw with Forest extended his run of posting multiple shots in league games to four, with at least one coming in each of the last six.
It's therefore unsurprising to see his 38 Premier League shots have led to a total xG figure of 3.87 for his two goals. A defensive-minded player doing more than enough to contribute in attack.
Add in Champions League games and his xG tally sits at 4.30. His last five games in the Premier League and European competition have returned at least 0.20 xG in each - with a goal in the win over Aston Villa.
It's not exactly like they are all efforts from distance either, which could be the wrong mindset to fall into when we consider he is a defensive midfielder. He poses a huge threat at set-pieces and often gets on the end of opportunities in the penalty area.
The above shot map outlines that, and why it is worth playing it 'safer' on the 10/1 for a goal anytime rather than the 14s for that to come from outside the area.
Set-pieces should be key here given that City will likely be on the front foot throughout, and there's every chance they work up the corner count in their favour.
Only Newcastle (159) have taken more corners than Guardiola's side (157) in the Premier League this season. That high number can be expected given their intent on attack and use of width to drive low crosses into the box.
Rodri will be involved on those corners and attacking free-kicks, as will RUBEN DIAS, making his 20/1 price for a goal pretty generous.
We'll discuss the player shortly, but it's eye-catching how many shots Bournemouth have conceded to defenders from teams who have excelled at set-pieces this season.
Tottenham duo Clement Lenglet and Ben Davies had three, as did Newcastle's Fabian Schär, while both Arsenal centre-backs (William Saliba scored) and Brentford's Ben Mee had one each in their respective games.
Dias managed one in the meeting at the Etihad, while centre-back partner Nathan Ake had two.
His total of eight shots from 16 appearances in the league (four of which came as a substitute) have totalled a significant 1.89 xG. That highlights the quality of chances seen by the defender.
Dias netted twice alongside posting a further four assists in the Premier League last season, and this fixture looks set-up for him to grab his first of the current campaign.
With Erling Haaland an expected odds-on to find the net, despite the fairly quiet few weeks by his usual standards, the appeal comes in backing DIAS and RODRI to strike.
Bournemouth v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Ruben Dias to score anytime at 20/1 (Unibet)
- 1pt Rodri to score anytime at 10/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1410 GMT (23/02/23)
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