Football betting tips: World Cup qualifiers
1pt Andy Robertson 1+ fouls in Denmark vs Scotland (19:45) at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt Dan Ndoye to score anytime in Switzerland vs Kosovo (19:45) at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Oleksandr Zinchenko to score or assist in Ukraine vs France (19:45) at 9/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pt Estonia under 1.5 shots on target vs Italy (19:45) at 5/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Estonia under 0.5 shots on target vs Italy (19:45) at 9/2 (bet365)
Denmark vs Scotland
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
- TV channel: BBC Two
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt'
ANDY ROBERTSON is 11/8 with bet365 to COMMIT 1+ FOULS.
This isn’t a groundbreaking discovery, it has been flagged a couple of times here at Sporting Life (not by me) but it is worth noting it is odds-on everywhere else.
From a statistical view point, this price looks apt. Across his domestic career, Robertson's has averaged 0.58 fouls per 90 and this drops to 0.30 for his nation. His recent appearances suggest otherwise though.
This season, he has committed one foul in 38 minutes of action for Liverpool and this bet clicked in 42% of his starts last season for club and country last campaign, which makes this price value.
Ultimately, I cannot escape the fact this price just looks too big for a full back.
For context, Patrick Dorgu’s best price to commit a foul is 2/5 and Rasmus Kristensen is 4/7, these are the full backs expected to start for Denmark. At right back for Scotland, Anthony Ralston is 4/11.
Odds correct at 1630 BST (04/09/25)
Italy vs Estonia
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
- TV channel: Amazon Prime
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
It's another new dawn for Italy, who parted ways with Luciano Spalletti and have appointed former midfield general Genaro Gattuso. His first game in charge is against European minnows Estonia, and I think we can take advantage of the managerial change in opposing the visitors' shot line.
Estonia, ranked 126th in the world, are what they are - whipping boys. They struggle against the better teams in Europe, and while Italy have struggled themselves of late, they should be much more solid under Gattuso.
The Azzuri are still ranked 11th in the world, but were in disarray during their first round of World Cup qualifying when losing 3-0 at Norway and an unconvincing win over Moldova when they conceded 18 shots at home, and I expect them to be more settled and, ultimately, back to doing what Italy do best - CATENACCIO.
That makes ESTONIA UNDER 1.5 and UNDER 0.5 SHOTS ON TARGET appeal at 5/4 and 9/2 respectively.
Prior to the last break when it was pure chaos, Italy had hosted just four sides ranked above 120th in the world over the past five years, and the under 1.5 bet had won in all four, with the under 0.5 winning in two of those.
Unsurprisingly Estonia have struggled against sides ranked in the top 30 of the world, failing to land a single shot on target in five of seven such contests, with the under 1.5 line landing in six of them.
We are hoping that Gattuso has cracked the whip, and has Italy back where they should be by being hard to beat and well organised, something that had evaded them under Spalletti.
Ukraine vs France
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
- TV channel: Amazon Prime
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt'
OLEKSANDR ZINCHENKO’s a full back by trade but for Ukraine he has been known to frequent the midfield region. Can you see where I am going with this?
For his country, he has scored 10 goals (0.19 goals per 90) and got six assists (0.11 assists per 90). Based on both of these per 90 averages, quotes of 20/1 for him to score anytime (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power) and 14/1 for 1+ assist (William Hill) are definitely worth considering.
I think I'd rather play it slightly safer and take the 9/1 about him TO SCORE OR ASSIST.
Zinchenko has a 0.30 G+A per 90 average for Ukraine which roughly translates to a price of 5/2.
Obviously the opposition needs to be considered and by international standards France are, well, pretty good. But Zinchenko has made 13 starts against the top 10 ranked European nations (FIFA), scoring twice and setting up one.
At the odds, we'll have another please.
Odds correct at 1630 BST (04/09/25)
Switzerland vs Kosovo
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
We all know by now that Switzerland are a pretty decent team. They have reached the quarter-finals of the last two Euros, and in 2024 knocked out the defending champions impressively. They will be aiming to qualify for their fifth straight World Cup and you wouldn't put it past them.
They open up against Kosovo, who will be in the same Nations League (B) as the Swiss the next time that fantastic tournament comes around, so will be a tough opponent.
However, the visitors' defensive shortcomings should see the Swiss edge proceedings, with the underdogs shipping multiple goals the last time they played international football against Comoros (ranked 107 in the world) and Armenia (105), while even Lithuania (143) managed to breach them in the Nations League.
We'll chance Nottingham Forest new boy DAN NDOYE TO SCORE ANYTIME at 2/1 with Sky Bet given the way he's started the season, and his role in this Switzerland side.
He has a goal and an assist to his name for Forest and looks extremely lively, while he scored in both June friendlies against Mexico and USA when playing off the left wing.
As a right-footer, playing off the left is preferred for cutting in and shooting, and I suspect he'll get plenty of chance to do that here. He fired 14 shots at Euro 2024 at an average of 3.06 per game, getting on the scoresheet in Germany too.
I'll happily take the slightly shorter price with Sky Bet compared to the 23/10 with Ladbrokes and Coral as the former are offering Super Sub, which means if Ndoye gets taken off, the bet is still live, with his replacement being the man we need to score.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (05/09/25)
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