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nuno mendes

Best bets: World Cup Qualifiers tips for 11 October 2025

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sat October 11, 2025 · 2M ago

Football betting tips: World Cup Qualifiers

1pt Alexander Sorloth to score a header in Norway vs Israel (17:00) at 11/2 (bet365)

1pt Nuno Mendes to score anytime in Portugal vs Rep of Ireland (19:45) at 7/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Red card in Serbia vs Albania (19:45) at 7/2 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Red card each team in Serbia vs Albania (19:45) at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Norway vs Israel

Goals should be on the agenda here. Not only do we have two high-scoring teams facing off, but we have a state of play that means Israel really have to go and win in Norway if they are to have any chance of qualifying for the World Cup, while a win for Norway all-but guarantees a top two finish.

The reverse game finished 4-2 to Norway, and we could see a similar scoreline here. Norway racked up nearly 4.0 xGF in that game, with over 1.0 xGF from set-pieces, so I've followed that thread again here for what I think is a cracking bit of value.

Erling Haaland may be the headline name for Norway, but it's ALEXANDER SORLOTH's 11/2 price TO SCORE A HEADER that looks enormous. In the previous meeting with Israel Sorloth had six shots, with four of those coming with his head. Three of those came from corners, including a headed goal.

In fact, he has three goals in WCQ and two have come with his head from set-pieces, while a whopping 59% of his shots and 61% of his xG have come via his head. The Atletico Madrid striker is generally odds-on to score anytime, making the boost to 11/2 for that goal to come via his noggin fantastic.

Even for his club side, Sortloth's head does a lot of heavy lifting. 56% of his shots and half of his goals in all competitions this term have come via his head.

Odds correct at 1250 BST (10/10/25)

Portugal vs Rep of Ireland

It's top versus bottom in Group F of World Cup qualifying, and it's no surprise that Portugal are 1/6 favourites to win against the Republic of Ireland in Lisbon.

Roberto Martinez's men have won both of their games so far, both away from home, scoring eight times and racking up 8.7 xGF, allowing just 0.7 xGA.

They now return to Portugal where their competitive record is incredible over the last few years. Selecao have won 13 of their last 15 competitive home games going back to 2021, scoring 45 times in the process and conceding just nine.

A big home win looks likely, and has been priced accordingly, but with goals on the cards we have to look at the goalscorer markets, where we'll take a big swing at NUNO MENDES TO SCORE ANYTIME.

The PSG left-back has been a huge scoring threat in Portugal's two World Cup qualifiers, taking two shots in both games and being on the end of two 'big chances'. He's averaged 0.65 xG per 90, which would be an incredible figure for a striker never mind a full-back.

With Portugal creating a ridiculous amount of chances, and scoring a hatful of goals when playing on home soil, let's chance a big priced outsider. We'll take the 7/1 at Sky Bet, with that firm offering super sub, and there is a chance that Mendes gets rested should this turn into a rout - he was hooked after 67 minutes in the 5-0 win of Armenia.

Odds correct at 1250 BST (10/10/25)

Serbia vs Albania

This one could get spicy. Not only are the stakes in this game high, but this is also a big rivalry between two - considered to be one of the most bitter in the world. They have only met three times, but one of those had to be an awarded win due to spectator riots - which emphasises the point.

These two sides are in England's World Cup qualifying group, and just a point separates the pair, with it looking increasingly likely that second place will be between the two nations.

Albania are in front with a better goal difference after Serbia were smashed by England, and while they have played a game more, get to host the Three Lions in the final gameday, whereas the Serbians have to play away in England - both have to visit Andorra.

So, this looks a great opportunity for either side to put themselves in pole position to finish second. A win for Serbia moves them two points clear with a game in hand and takes the pressure off them needing a result against England, while a win for Albania would mean a four-point cushion and the Serbians needing to win in England.

That's where we are at, high stakes, high tensions, so it's only right to back A RED CARD IN THE MATCH, especially with the referee appointment of Romanian Istvan Kovacs, who loves a red card.

Since 2022 he's flashed 37 reds cards in 141 games, 0.26 per game, while last season he finished with eight reds in 18 and he comes into this international break having shown two reds in his last three matches. He was also the man in charge of one of the highest card games in international history when showing 17 yellows and two reds at the 2024 Euros.

Given everything discussed it would be rude not to back BOTH TEAMS RED CARD at 50/1 too, just in case.

Odds correct at 1610 BST (10/10/22)

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