A struggling Aston Villa side host red-hot Manchester City on Saturday evening, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Manchester City to win -1 handicap at 10/11 (General)
1pt Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
The last thing a struggling Aston Villa team needs is a visit from the chance creation juggernaut Manchester City, who have a cyborg upfront that is finishing the opportunities at an incredible rate.
Steven Gerrard is under pressure, with results and performances really poor to start the season.
They have collected the fourth fewest expected points (xP) in the league this season, while ranking as the third worst attacking team through five matches after averaging 0.95 xGF per game.
That kind of attacking production really isn't going to cause Manchester City's defence any issues, after all, Pep Guardiola's side are not only the chance creation kings, but they also take the crown as the best defensive team in the top flight.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Aston Villa 8/1 | Draw 9/2 | Man City 3/10
They allowed an average of just 0.72 xGA per game and they have started the new season shipping 0.94 xGA per game, so that combined with Villa's attacking shortcomings means City are unlikely to concede multiple goals.
Now, on the other side of the ball, Pep's squad have averaged a league-leading 2.75 xGF per game this term, netting 19 times from those chances.
Villa's defence is floundering at the minute. It was their strongest asset last term, but the early signs are that they aren't hitting those same levels, allowing 1.78 xGA per game.
They have been carved open by Everton (2.01 xGA), Crystal Palace (2.93 xGA) and Arsenal (2.92 xGA), and you best believe that if those teams can create that many good chances against the Villains that this City team will too.
All of that means that MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN -1 HANDICAP is the selection here at a near even-money price. We need City to win by two clear goals for this bet to land.
Since the start of last season City have won 33 of their 43 Premier League games, and this bet would have landed in 23 of those success, meaning a 54% strike rate across their matches and a 70% strike rate across their victories.
With Pep's side strongly fancied to win this game given the current state of their hosts, that 70% looks appealing, and suggests the general 10/11 price available is too big.
After all, this is not the same City team who used to go in front and cruise, they really are putting teams to the sword this season, going for more and more goals, as shown by their results this term, with this bet landing in all four victories.
Given a comfortable City win is expected, I thought it was worth chancing a bet concentrated on the man of the moment - Erling Haaland.
Some quick calculations. City are averaging 2.75 xGF per game. Haaland is averaging 1.54 xG/95. That means that on average Haaland is on the end of 56% of City's game-to-game xG total.
He has been on the end of 10 non-penalty big chances (0.35 xG+) already, converting eight of them. That's more than Bournemouth (0), Leicester (1), Aston Villa (3) and Nottingham Forest (4) have managed as teams between them.
Now, some fun calculations. If City continue to create at the same rate, they would be expected to rack up a further 90.8 xGF over the remaining 33 games. If Haaland stayed fit and continue to get on the end of chances at the same rate, that would mean he would be on the end of a further 49.9 xGF...
To caveat, we are still working off small samples and City have had a kind schedule to start the season, but at current projections Infogol calculates he has an 91.2% chance of scoring 41+ across the rest of this season. That would take his total to 50 over the full campaign. That would be obscene.
Hopefully that has set the scene for how well he is playing and how well he has adapted to the Premier League and Pep's system/style.
So in this game against a weak backline, with Infogol forecasting City to rack up 2.45 xG, these calculations would suggest HAALAND is on the end of ~1.37 xG, meaning the chance of him SCORING 2+ GOALS are high.
The reason I say they are high is that the average xG per shot Haaland is getting on the end of is 0.30, so effectively every opportunity he is getting is near enough a 'big chance'.
This is a bet that has already landed in three of five games this season, and fresh off back-to-back hat-tricks, the Norwegian will be licking his lips at the prospect of playing a Villa team who look vulnerable.
Aston Villa v Manchester City best bets and preview
- 2.5pts Manchester City to win -1 handicap at 10/11 (General)
- 1pt Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1145 BST (02/09/22)
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