Football betting tips: Conference League
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 19/20 (General)
0.5pt Palace to win and Dean Henderson to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
*All bets settled in 90 mins
Agg: Larnaca 0-0 Crystal Palace
Kick-off: Thursday, 17:45 GMT
TV: TNT Sports 3
Live odds, form and stats
Crystal Palace cannot wait to see the back of AEK Larnaca. The Eagles have hosted the Cypriot minnows twice this season and are yet to score, with Larnaca unbeaten against Oliver Glasner's men, earning a 0-0 draw in the first leg of this tie.
Palace did create enough in both contests to win comfortably, out-creating an incredible 3.74 - 0.43 on xG, yet somehow losing 1-0 over two games. A similar level of performance here would more than likely result in a win at the third time of trying.
We'll get onto the result-based selection shortly, but we simply have to back UNDER 2.5 GOALS here at 19/20.
Larnaca have been the unders kings in the Conference League this season, six of their seven going under 2.5, with the only one to go over their very first outing at home against AZ Alkmaar who had a man sent off after two minutes. Five of seven have gone under 1.5 goals while they've played out three 0-0s.
Across seven matches, the Cypriot side have conceded just one goal and that came in the 94th minute against Swedish side Hacken, highlighting just how solid they are. In their league phase games they conceded just six big chances and have allowed 1.01 xGA per game.
Only Palace have exposed them somewhat, but the Eagles shortcomings in forward areas have been the difference. Going the other way Larnaca have offered little in this competition, averaging just 1.04 xGF per game, so effectively they are a team who are tough to score against but can't score themselves.
In two games against Palace they were completely shut-out, managing just six shots in 180 minutes of action. Palace are defensively sound but continue to struggle to put the ball in the net despite creating the chances. That could change in this second leg, but either way we should be in for another low-scoring contest between these two.
I do think PALACE find a way and WIN the game in Cyprus, but they are short to do so, though I think if they do get in front the chances of DEAN HENDERSON getting CARDED dramatically increase, and the 12/1 for the double is worth a small bet.
Henderson is no stranger to the dark arts and has accumulated a number of cards for time-wasting, most recently against Manchester United, when he was booked for time-wasting in the 49th minute... the 49th minute!
That was his second of the season for such an offence, while last season he received one in the FA Cup final, away at Brighton in the league and away at QPR in the Carabao Cup - all in wins.
Referee Aliyar Aghayev is a card-happy referee (4.33 per game) and has already booked a goalkeeper in European competition this season for time-wasting.
Henderson did miss the weekend's draw with Leeds with an illness but should be good to go for this game.
Odds correct at 17:30 GMT (16/03/26)
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