Richard Mann has two strong bets for Sunday's T20 World Cup final, as India and New Zealand renew hostilities in Ahmedabad.
Cricket tips: India v New Zealand T20 World Cup final
2pts Glenn Phillips over 22.5 player performance points at 5/6 (bet365)
2pts Daryl Mitchell over 20.5 player performance points at 10/11 (BetVictor)
India face their date with destiny in Ahmedabad on Sunday (13:30) when meeting New Zealand in the final of the T20 World Cup.
Having started the tournament as hot 11/8 favourites, the market always expected India to dominate a home World Cup, but there have been some bumps along the road, most notably a heavy defeat to South Africa and a big scare against United States Of America.
India batting power comes good
However, the batting has flexed its muscles in the last week, as Sanju Samson powered India to victories over West Indies and then England in a particularly high-scoring semi-final in Mumbai on Thursday.
Their all-out-attack approach can get India in trouble, but there is great depth to the batting, demonstrated by Tilak Varma batting as low as number seven on Thursday. The likes of Ishan Kishan, Shivam Dube and Hardik Pandya have been hitting sixes for fun.
The fact England very nearly pulled off an improbable run chase in that semi-final encounter, scoring 246-7 themselves, highlights India’s issues with the ball, but just as he was in the T20 World Cup of 2024, Jasprit Bumrah was the difference.
His match-up against New Zealand’s ultra-aggressive opening pair of Tim Seifert and Finn Allen will be fascinating, the latter hot from his 33-ball hundred which toppled South Africa in the last four.
New Zealand hitting their straps
The Kiwis certainly appear to be peaking at the right time, having been readily outpointed by South Africa and England earlier in the competition. Wednesday’s demolition of the Proteas was just about the perfect performance from Mitchell Santner’s men.
If that opening pair can fire again, this is clearly a dangerous outfit. The middle order is strong and experienced, Matt Henry a weapon with the new ball, Lockie Ferguson still very sharp, and Santner a canny left-arm spinner.
New Zealand field exceptionally well, something that India haven’t throughout this World Cup, and so often exceed expectations and play above themselves. In order to win on Sunday, they will need that and more again.
Nevertheless, we have seen over the last few weeks just how crucial the toss can prove to be in India, with batting second the preferred option when dew is such a big factor in the second innings, helping the ball slide onto the bat and making it hard to grip for bowlers, especially the spinners.
Were New Zealand to get lucky at the toss, they could be in the business, certainly with a better chance than current match odds of 21/10 would suggest.
India supporters will point to last year’s Champions Trophy final when their team beat New Zealand in convincing fashion, but that was in the 50-over format. Moreover, the Kiwis should take heart from the fact India lost a World Cup final they were widely expected to win against Australia on this very ground in 2023.
I would expect good batting conditions on a surface generally one of the most reliable for runs in India, but odds of 7/2 for both teams to score 200+ make little appeal.
What are the best bets?
Instead, in the belief the Kiwi middle order will need to do plenty of heavy lifting, I’m keen to back GLENN PHILLIPS and DARYL MITCHELL in the PLAYER PERFORMANCE market.
I’ll kick off with Phillips, a dynamite, three-dimensional cricketer who I’ve long viewed as one of the best in the business. Phillips is averaging 44.00 with the bat at this World Cup, and has picked up three wickets with his off-spin which could be useful against so many Indian left-handers.
Crucially, and this also helps form the case for Mitchell, Phillips has taken 11 catches in the outfield in just eight matches, making his current player performance line of 22.5 look very appealing.
It’s only 20.5 for Mitchell, down to the fact he’s had a quiet World Cup so far, though he hasn’t been required with the bat that often in a string of one-sided Kiwi wins against associate sides. Expect that to change on Sunday, and he's on eight catches for the tournament so far.
Prior to this World Cup, New Zealand enjoyed a white-ball tour of India, when Mitchell played well in the T20I leg, that having compiled scores of 84, 131 not out and 137 in the preceding ODI series. And in the aforementioned Champions Trophy final against India last March, Mitchell was New Zealand’s top scorer, again underlining his liking for this opposition.
I did toy with the idea of chancing Mitchell to be top New Zealand batsman at 10/1, but I’m keen to have both him and Phillips on side, so decent wagers on performance points for both make more appeal. As a reminder, we are 20 points per wicket, 10 points per catch, and one point per run in this market.
Both rate solid plays, and they will need to be in order to stop this India train which is fast gathering momentum towards a World Cup victory that bookmakers have long believed is inevitable.
Posted at 14:50 GMT on 06/03/26
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