Julianna Pena is big value for her eagerly-anticipated rematch with Amanda Nunes at UFC PPV this weekend, writes Will Dean.
MMA betting tips: UFC PPV
1.5pts Julianna Pena to win at 9/4 (General)
3pts Brandon Moreno to win in Rounds 4, 5 or by Decision at 11/10 (General)
JULIANNA PENA shocked the world last December when she dethroned Women’s Bantamweight Champion Amanda Nunes, who is widely regarded as the greatest Women’s MMA fighter of all time. Nunes had previously been undefeated since 2015, racking up 12 consecutive wins and looking seemingly unstoppable in the eyes of UFC fans, but Pena’s conviction throughout fight week proved wise when she stopped the future Hall-of-Famer via a second-round submission.
Pena’s victory over Nunes ranks as the sixth biggest UFC betting upset of all time, and the now-champion will once again be the underdog on Saturday night. Considering the psychological implications that will have spawned from their first meeting, Pena could be in a position to put on a better performance than before.
The Venezuelan Vixen has dedicated 13 years of her life to pursuing UFC gold as a professional Mixed Martial Artist, only for the fanbase to dismiss her achievements the moment she dethroned Nunes. The motivation for Pena to once again defeat her Brazilian foe could arguably be stronger than in their first fight, as the need to ‘legitimise’ her reign will still burn within her.
Conversely, Nunes’ status as one of the greatest of all time has been firmly solidified for years, and the motivation to reclaim her belt may not be as fierce as when she held it. Furthermore, since the loss in December, she has made the curious decision to leave American Top Team - the gym she had been with since beginning her undefeated run, opting instead to open her own private gym.
Mental warfare aside, Pena proved that she has the tools to implement the perfect gameplan against Nunes. If she can survive the early onslaught from the Brazilian, her high workrate can turn the tide as The Lioness begins to slow down.
It is not often you get such an appealing price on a fighter to win a rematch they were previously victorious in, so backing PENA TO WIN at 9/4 is a gamble worth taking.
More from Moreno
UFC 277 has been shaped around the theme of rematches, as the co-main event also features a sequel between BRANDON MORENO and Kai Kara-France. Their first meeting in 2019 was an entertaining Flyweight affair, with Moreno showing off some serious improvements to his striking as he marched on to a unanimous decision victory.
The stakes are much higher for Saturday night’s rematch though, as the interim Flyweight title is up for grabs. Moreno has just concluded a hotly contested trilogy against current champion Deiveson Figueiredo and will be looking to solidify his position as the division’s clear second best, but Kara-France comes from a camp that knows how to make champions – New Zealand’s City Kickboxing.
With that said, the improvements that Moreno has made in the last few years are impossible to ignore in this fight. The Assassin Baby’s well-roundedness makes him a complicated match-up for any prospect, and his elite durability and cardio requires them to perform at their peak for a full 25 minutes. Kara-France’s rise to title contention was heavily reliant on his knockout power but, having already shared a cage with Moreno for 15 minutes, I do not expect it to come into play.
Kara-France is outgunned in almost every aspect of this fight and, whilst the fight should appear relatively competitive, he is likely to come up short in each round. With The Assassin Baby’s cardio being a key weapon in this five-round fight, backing MORENO TO WIN IN ROUNDS 4,5 OR BY DECISION is the bet to make at 11/10.
Posted at 1410 BST on 29/07/22
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