Will Dean previews UFC Paris, where Robert Whittaker is strongly fancied to get the better of Marvin Vettori.
MMA betting tips: UFC Paris
3pts Robert Whittaker to win by Decision at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ciryl Gane to win in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Mixed Martial Arts has been on a steady rise in France over the last few years, with fighters like Ciryl Gane, Nassourdine Imavov and Manon Fiorot emerging as top prospects in their respective weight classes. The sport only received full legalisation in France in 2020, so the UFC has had to remain patient for its debut in Paris. However, the organisation appears to be making up for lost time – bringing a whole host of European talent to Saturday’s early evening card.
Gane, Set and Match
In the main event, the aforementioned CIRYL GANE will be looking to make a strong statement in his first fight since a disappointing loss to champion Francis N’Gannou. The duo’s superiority over the rest of the division will likely ensure that they lock horns again in the near future, but the Frenchman will still need to impress UFC matchmakers and fans alike if he is to maintain his place as number one contender.
Australia’s Tai Tuivasa is one such man who could pose a threat to Gane’s title aspirations, as Bam Bam is certainly a marketable option in his own right. As a hard-hitting fan favourite with the personality to become a star, a knockout victory over Gane would be more than enough to see Tuivasa face off against N’Gannou next.
Unfortunately for Tuivasa, his French opponent presents somewhat of a stylistic nightmare. Gane is one of the most defensively sound Heavyweights the UFC has ever seen, and his unique blend of physical strength and terrifying speed at 265lbs has meant that opponents need much more than one-dimensional knockout power if they are hoping to best him.
Absolutely anything can happen in MMA, but it is no surprise to see Gane priced up as a 1/6 favourite this weekend. Tuivasa is certainly not a fighter built for a 25-minute performance so the Australian’s window for victory is narrow to begin with, but squaring off against a defensive master like Gane should see him swinging at air for the duration of this fight.
After approximately two or three rounds of managing distance and avoiding Tuivasa’s power, Gane should have a victory comfortably in his sights. However, with the expectations of impressing UFC matchmakers and satisfying his country’s fans, the Frenchman really should capitalise on the chance to register an emphatic win by stoppage. I am expecting Gane to pour on the pressure in the latter half of this fight, leading to a bet on Gane to win in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 at 9/4.
Reap the Rewards
In the co-main event, former Middleweight champion ROBERT WHITTAKER faces off against Italy’s Marvin Vettori in an interesting clash of well-rounded fighters. Both men have suffered two losses at the hands of reigning champion Israel Adesanya and seem to have been discarded from the title picture as a result, but Whittaker specifically has had no issue in focusing his efforts towards the division’s other emerging contenders.
The Reaper is a tremendous counter striker who thrives on using a fighter’s forward pressure against them – something that Vettori will almost certainly oblige him with. The Italian Dream has been known to let his emotions get the better of him and can easily become frustrated when he fails to get his hands on his opponent, which also plays directly into Whittaker’s hands.
Vettori appears slightly outmatched in almost every facet of Mixed Martial Arts here, so the current 2/5 line on Whittaker feels apt. The only area where Vettori impresses more is in durability, as the Italian boasts potentially one of the greatest chins in UFC today. Coupled with the fact that Whittaker is not much of finishing threat himself, with each of his last five wins coming on the judges’ scorecards, a bet on Robert Whittaker to Win by Decision at 4/5 is certainly appealing.
Posted at 1630 BST on 01/09/22
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