What next for QIPCO 2000 Guineas horses after Notable Speech blooms and City Of Troy flops

The first Saturday in May, a day when dreams are made and bubbles are burst.

Aidan O’Brien has felt emotions on either side of that spectrum several times over on this very day, the good times seeing him win the QIPCO 2000 Guineas on ten occasions between 1998 and 2019, a frequency which saw punters put their faith in his raiders year after year.

The bad times have been few and far between, but there was Air Force Blue and Auguste Rodin, two short-priced favourites spectacularly turned over, and now it’s happened again with City Of Troy, a well-beaten 4/6 favourite who didn’t look like landing the money from any point after the stalls opened.

For O’Brien his chance was compromised even before that, restlessness in the stalls put forward as a possible excuse, but he even failed to convince himself with that line as his horse was put in the starting gates last of all.

The bottom line is he was never travelling, never happy, O’Brien now winless in the first Classic of the season in the last five years.

A genius trainer, responsible for some exceptional horses, he has his work cut out with this City Of Troy now. He didn’t take the eye in the paddock and he certainly didn’t take the eye in the race. Of course, we were here 12 months ago and Auguste Rodin did alright (!) after his Guineas flop, but to do it again? Another unbelievable recovery mission? We can only watch this space.

In the unsaddling enclosure reserved for horses not good enough to get in the first four, tucked away from the crowds on a sunny afternoon, O’Brien was perplexed but unruffled by the whole thing. Relaxed as he held court to a few out of breath journalists, he simply explained he would take it on the chin, exchanged a gentle joke and then said ‘sorry about that, everyone.’

Such perspective is necessary in a sport that rarely follows a well-written script and Newmarket trainer Charlie Appleby knows all about that. After a few golden seasons he had a low-key 2023, all relative of course – his total UK prizemoney dropping from £6.2million in 2022 to £2.8million last year.

His A-listers let him down, though, and he was quiet in the British Group Ones, but victory for Notable Speech is some way to begin the bounce back. The son of Dubawi looked strong beforehand, physically imposing, and he travelled through the Guineas like a top-class miler. He put the race to bed like one, too.

This horse is Notable by name and his Guineas was notable by nature – he’s the first horse to win this Classic having been unraced at two in 86 years, while he’s the first 2000 Guineas winner not to have run on turf beforehand having raced three times on Kempton’s polytrack.

Hands behind his back, as if addressing Sheikh Mohammed himself, Appleby explained why we hadn’t seen this horse at two: “Just weakness,” he said. “Simple as that. He was a shallow horse and we gave him time to fill out. The way he looked in the paddock, I thought he looked a bull of a horse.

“He came out on the all-weather there and we all know what he did – he was three from three – in that last start, I think he put a bit of a ‘wow factor’ into what he achieved, with his acceleration.”

That turn of foot is some weapon. It looks like the St James’s Palace next. It looks like the Sussex Stakes after that and then the QEII. The older milers are a mixed bunch, but a clash with Big Rock at some stage could get some racecourse marketeers licking their lips.

Congratulations came in from all corners of Newmarket for Appleby, even Richard Hannon who gave him a sarcastic slow hand-clap with his racecard just as the winning trainer was posing for photographs with his Guineas trophy.

The smile on Hannon was broad but you could visibly see the gritted teeth given Appleby’s horse denied him a Guineas one-two, Rosallion and Haatem running good races a length and a half and a length and a quarter behind the winner, respectively.

He thought he’d won it when City Of Troy faded, Rosallion in particular travelling with zest, and the pair look likely to stick to a mile. Could Rosallion give Notable Speech a race at Royal Ascot with the bend to help? Will speedy Goodwood help either of the Hannon pair turn the tables?

Hopefully these clashes happen, but one horse who looks destined to skip any future parties over a mile is Clive Cox’s Ghostwriter, outpaced here and now set for a step up in trip, the French Derby mooted as a possible target.

More dreams to be had, more bubbles to burst. And while we came here with the prospect of Triple Crowns and daring raids to America’s top dirt races in mind, we leave with rematches, Derbys and clashes with older horses on the horizon. Most of all, though, we leave having seen a Notable winner.

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