Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Ascot on Saturday
There is a competitive card at Ascot this weekend and Andrew Asquith has found two bets, including a strong fancy in the Victoria Cup.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday May 11
2pts win Pearle d'Or in the 2.40 Ascot at 14/1 (Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Zouzanna in the 2.05 Ascot at 9/1 (General)
There are Derby and Oaks trials at Chester and Lingfield this week and the Derby in particular has a much more open look to it now following City of Troy’s dismal display in the 2000 Guineas last Saturday.
However, it is worth remembering that Auguste Rodin was also well beaten in the 2000 Guineas on his return last season before going on to win the Derby at Epsom, so it would be no surprise were he to bounce back in a few weeks’ time. Aidan O’Brien isn’t short of other candidates, either, and he has two interesting horses in the shape of Illinois and The Euphrates entered in the Lingfield Derby Trial on Saturday.
As you would expect representing such illustrious connections, they haven’t been missed in the market, but both have solid form claims nonetheless having finished second and third, respectively, in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown last month. O’Brien has won the race four times since 2013, notably with Anthony Van Dyck in 2019, who went on to win the Derby.
There are some interesting types in opposition, though, especially Meydaan, who impressed me a fair bit when making a winning debut at Newcastle in November, and wasn’t seen to best effect on his return in what looked a good race on paper at Newmarket’s Craven meeting. It was only run at a steady pace, though, which didn’t help his cause, particularly as he was ridden patiently and it was incredibly hard to make ground up at that meeting on the whole.
I’m convinced he is much better than he was able to show there and he shaped at Newmarket as though he is more than ready for a step up to a mile and a half. The problem is he is only a general 7/1 (one firm standout at 12/1) and that puts me off making him a selection, for all he looks an interesting contender to me.
There are some competitive handicaps at Ascot and I think there is a knocking bet in the Victoria Cup. The one who catches my eye is the David O’Meara-trained PEARLE D’OR, who did well upon joining the yard from Dermot Weld last season, winning a couple of competitive seven furlong handicaps, one over this course and distance and the other where he landed a gamble at Newbury.
There was plenty to like about his success in a course and distance handicap, albeit in a lower grade, but he travelled notably well to win with a bit in hand, and he confirmed his liking for a straight, galloping seven furlongs in a stronger race at Newbury.
Pearle d’Or also went like the best horse at the weights when beaten one and a quarter lengths third in the Challenge Cup on his final start last season, a heritage handicap again over this course and distance. You could make the case that he would have likely won that day, too, had his rider opted to move to the stand-side group from his middle draw rather than the far side.
He travelled into contention like a very well-handicapped horse, the last to come off the bridle and coming home first in the far-side group, whereas the first and second (Popmaster, who may reoppose here) endured a ding-dong battle on the stands’ rail.
Pearle d’Or may have needed the run on his return from six months off at Newmarket last month, but it is also quite easy to discard that run also, given the Rowley Mile isn’t a track which would suit his hold-up style of racing, even more so on good-to-firm ground with a tailwind which as already mentioned gave a big advantage to prominent runners at the Craven meeting.
That will have blown away the cobwebs and the return to Ascot, where he has a record of 213 over, will very much be in his favour. Pearle d’Or will race from the same mark as when shaping so well on his latest start over this course and distance and he is arguably open to further improvement under the conditions he will get on Saturday, a big-field handicap where he will almost certainly get a good pace to aim at.
He is set to carry just 8-7 and it is interesting to see that O’Meara has been quick to acquire the services of Silvestre De Sousa, a jockey who has returned to riding in Britain with a bang this season, highlighted by his win in the 1000 Guineas last Sunday. Pearle d’Or is starting to attract support in the ante-post market, but I expect his price to keep tumbling and can see him starting much shorter on Saturday, so he is definitely a horse to get on side at the standout 14/1.
Another horse who interests me at Ascot is ZOUZANNA in the EBF Fillies’ Handicap which precedes the Victoria Cup. She bumped into a couple of useful types on her two starts as a juvenile and barely had to improve to open her account on her return at Haydock last season, beating a next-time-out winner in the process.
Zouzanna hit a couple of bumps in the road afterwards, but she got right back on track when winning a seven-furlong handicap in September, where she was well suited by a strongly-run race back in trip, coming with a late run to lead in the final 100 yards to beat a thriving filly and a well-treated one back in third.
She started favourite for her next start at Newmarket and ran at least as well in defeat in another well-run race, beaten only narrowly and doing all of her best work at the finish, but similar hold-up tactics kept to seven furlongs were harder to pull off on the Rowley Mile. The return to softer ground was a possible excuse for her below-par effort when last seen again at Newmarket in October, having nothing left to give in the closing stages this time.
Zouzanna remains relatively lightly raced for a four-year-old and she is also a nice type physically, so there is reason to believe she will have even more to give this season. Harry Charlton has made a very positive start to the season and Zouzanna is just 3 lb higher than when winning over this course and distance last year. She also won first time up last season, so there is quite a bit to like about her chances, especially as the ground is set to dry out further this week. The general 9/1 available looks appealing taking everything into account.
Preview posted at 1500 BST on 07/05/2024
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