Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 37
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ assist in Villa vs Liverpool (20:00) at 3/1 (bet365)
Last week we got off to the best possible starts thanks to Dominic Calvert-Lewin finding the net again for Everton, but it was frustration afterwards. Saturday could have been better, with only the Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest bet of Over 3.0 Goals landing.
The two Bournemouth foul plays finished on one, Alex Scott booked for his only foul of the game in the first half, while Sunday was poor. Crystal Palace hammered Manchester United on Monday to salvage us some points back, beating the required shot line, but we ended with a -1.69pt loss.
- Jake Osgathorpe is +61.66pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
That ended a run of three straight profitable weeks for this column, but we'll hopefully bounce back this weekend with some tasty looking bets as the Premier League enters its penultimate gameweek.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 16/5 | Draw 7/2 | Away 4/6
We should see chances and goals galore here. Not only do we have two porous and vulnerable defences, but we have two high-octane attacks. I do side with a Liverpool win, as after all, Aston Villa did have a huge game on Thursday and ultimately huge disappointment by exiting the Europa Conference League.
The Reds looked back to their rampant selves last weekend, and their attack should put a floundering Villa defence to the sword. Since the turn of the year, Unai Emery's side rank fifth worst for xGA per game (2.01).
How do we profit? Well, despite the same bet losing last weekend, I am going to wade in again on TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD 1+ ASSIST, this time at 3/1. Since returning from injury he is yet to register an assist, despite racking up the chances for his teammates.
He has generated 0.57, 0.21, 0.41, 0.43 and 0.22 expected assists (xA) across his last five, with a per 90 average of 0.41. Trent will be licking his lips at the thought of playing killer passes over the top of a high and dysfunctional Villa defence in this game, with that looking like a great opportunity for him to pick up an assist.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Already advised
2pts Under 3.5 cards in Everton vs Sheff Utd (15:00) at 4/5 (William Hill)
0.5pt No cards in Everton vs Sheff Utd (15:00) at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
2pts Newcastle -1.0 Asian handicap vs Brighton (15:00) at 20/21 (bet365)
1pt Burnley to score 1+ first half goal vs Spurs (15:00) at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Burnley to score first vs Spurs (15:00) at 5/2 (bet365)
1pt Elijah Adebayo to score anytime in West Ham vs Luton (15:00) at 5/2 (Betfair, Paddys)
1pt Michail Antonio to score anytime in West Ham vs Luton (15:00) at 21/10 (bet365)
2pts Callum Hudson-Odoi 1+ shot on target in Forest vs Chelsea (17:30) at evens (Betfair, Paddys)
1.5pts Arsenal to win to nil vs Man Utd (16:30) at 2/1 (Betfair, bet365)
0.5pt e.w. Gabriel Magalhaes to score first vs Man Utd (16:30) at 20/1 (bet365 1/3 1-98)
Everton vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 4/1 | Away 6/1
This is a proverbial dead rubber with Everton safe and Sheffield United relegated. We can expect less bite in the tackles and referees to be more hesitant to flash cards in such matches, so backing UNDER 3.5 CARDS appeals greatly at 4/5, while NO CARDS looks a live runner immediately at 12/1 - it's 4/1 in places!
When we dig deeper, Stuart Attwell is the man in charge, and he dished out only two cards in a dead rubber last weekend, one in the Blades' recent trip to Anfield and has had three no-card games this season. Last season he finished the campaign with two no-carders in his final six outings.
Chris Wilder's side were involved in a no-carder in their last away game when getting hammered by Newcastle, while just one card was flashed in the prior away game at Old Trafford. All in all, the Blades have been handed just three cards in their last four away matches.
On the Everton side of things, they have picked up 1-1-2-4-0-1 cards in their last six home games - the four being in their crunch clash with Nottingham Forest. It wouldn't be a surprise if this one stays fairly tame.
Score prediction: Everton 3-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Newcastle vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 18/5 | Away 19/5
Newcastle still have plenty to play for this season, with European football still very much up for grabs. Their home form all season has been sensational, winning 12 of 18, losing just three, with two of those defeats coming against Liverpool and Manchester City.
They have won four of their last five at St James' Park, scoring 17 in the process, so are really finishing the season with a flourish, but their attack has been purring all season long in front of their own fans. Only Liverpool have averaged more xGF per game than Newcastle, while no side has scored more goals at home.
Brighton put in a good display last weekend at home, but have been a disaster away of late. They have won just one of their last 12 road league games, which came against Sheffield United, and have allowed an average of 1.89 xGA per game, so NEWCASTLE should win comfortably here.
Backing them -1.0 on the ASIAN HANDICAP appeals at near even money, a bet that pays out fully should the Magpies win by two goals or more, and gives us our stake back if they win by just one goal.
Score prediction: Newcastle 4-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Tottenham vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 3/10 | Draw 5/1 | Away 13/2
Burnley need to win here. Anything less than that and they will be relegated on Saturday. That means we should expect an extremely gung-ho performance, with the kitchen sink likely being thrown early on. Spurs have been awful defensively of late, and so should present their visitors with chances.
But how do we profit? Well, if you are brave, the Burnley win at 7/1 could be of interest, though I think if the game gets stretched it will only suit Spurs more. Instead, backing BURNLEY TO SCORE 1+ FIRST HALF GOAL looks a cracking way in.
The Clarets have to go for it here which means a fast start is likely, and Spurs are a slow team out of the blocks. Get this, Ange Postecoglou's side have conceded a first half goal in 13 of their last 15 Premier League matches.
Just incase the Clarets adopt a different approach, keep it tight early on before opening up in the second half, splitting stakes on BURNLEY TO SCORE FIRST looks large at 5/2. Spurs have conceded the first goal in 11 of those last 15 games too, highlighting their issues.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
West Ham vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 29/10
Defeat here likely spells the end of Luton's time in the Premier League. Unfortunately for the Hatters though, this could be a bad time to play West Ham away. This will be David Moyes' final home game as Hammers manager, and you can bet your bottom dollar that the players will give their all to make it a winning send off, while the fans will be in celebratory mood as they show appreciation for one of the clubs most successful managers.
I expect West Ham to win a high-scoring game, and while West Ham to win and BTTS appealed at around 19/10, I couldn't resist a couple of goalscorer plays at bigger prices given I expect plenty of goals.
MICHAIL ANTONIO has been in good form for West Ham since returning from injury, scoring in four of his last seven starts, averaging 0.57 xG per 90 in that time and will relish the space that Luton will leave for the Hammers as they search for goals themselves.
I'll also back Luton striker ELIJAH ADEBAYO, who is crucial to Rob Edwards' side and who has been badly missed due to injury. Adebayo has scored seven times in his last 10 league appearances, including on his return to the starting XI last weekend, averaging 0.61 xG per 90. He'll get a few chances here.
- CLICK HERE to back Mchail Antonio to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Elijah Adebayo to score anytime with Sky Bet
Score prediction: West Ham 4-2 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Bournemouth vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 19/20 | Draw 29/10 | Away 12/5
Bournemouth are closing in on a top half finish, which would be some achievement for Andoni Iraola, especially with how poorly they started the season. They'll fancy rounding off an impressive home season with a win here, especially as they have won four of their last five at the Vitality.
Brentford present an interesting opponent though, a team more than willing to negate Bournemouth's high-pressing tactics. Motivation is the key question for the Bees though, who have disappointed on the road this term (W4 D2 L12).
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 23/10 | Draw 29/10 | Away evs
I was initially all over backing Nottingham Forest to get a result here, but given how I've predicted the 3pm games, they likely won't need one in order to survive this season. There's every chance they are all-but safe as they take to the field here.
Chelsea still have plenty to play for, with European football on the line, and while I don't want to get involved in the main markets, a player prop bet has caught the eye.
CALLUM HUDSON-ODOI has had 1+ SHOT ON TARGET in all of his last 12 starts in the Premier League for Nottingham Forest, making his even money price absurdly big in this game. Not only is he up against his former team, but the trigger-happy winger has been in sensational form of late. The same bet is as short as 4/9 in places.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Manchester United vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 13/2 | Draw 17/4 | Away 4/11
On this weeks episode of 'Let's all laugh at Manchester United', Erik ten Hag's men were pumped 4-0 by Crystal Palace, with Casemiro delivering a performance that will be talked about for years to come. It's been an utterly miserable season for the Red Devils.
They will finish the season with fewer points than David Moyes' 13/14 side (64), and could well fall short of the season that finished with Ralf Rangnick at the helm in 21/22 (58). United are set to go off at the biggest price they have ever been for a Premier League game this weekend, which tells you how far they have fallen.
I want to get title chasing Arsenal on side for obvious reasons, and backing ARSENAL TO WIN TO NIL looks a solid way in at 2/1. The Gunners have the best away record in the league, winning 12 and losing just three of 18, while conceding only a 13 goals and allowing just 0.88 xGA per game - both league lows.
Away against sides in eighth and below Mikel Arteta's side have won 11 of 12, with nine of those coming to nil. United are set to again be without Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes, their main attacking threats, and continue to be missing all centre-backs, so it looks a great opportunity to get the visitors onside.
I'll also have an each-way bigger priced punt on GABRIEL MAGALHAES TO SCORE FIRST at 20/1. He's 6/1 anytime, but taking the 20/1 each-way (1/3 odds) means we are getting a better anytime price and the potential bonus of a 20/1 winner.
The Brazilian is a monster in the air, has scored four times this season and averages 0.13 xG per 90 - the most of any centre-back in the top flight. United represent the worst defensive team from set-pieces in the entire division, allowing 15.9 xG from such situations, while Arsenal's 20 set-play goals leads the league.
With no Harry Maguire in defence, United are missing their own ball magnet so we should see Arsenal have plenty of joy from dead-ball situations. Let's hope Gabriel is the one to punish the hosts.
- CLICK HERE to back Arsenal to win to nil with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Gabriel Magalhaes to score first with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Manchester United 0-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 54
- Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
- Newcastle 4-1 Brighton
- West Ham 4-2 Luton
- Bournemouth 2-1 Brentford
- Nottingham Forest 2-2 Chelsea
- Manchester United 0-3 Arsenal
Odds correct at 1515 BST (10/05/24)
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