Brighton vs Chelsea betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
- Jake Osgathorpe is +65.51pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brighton or Draw (double chance) at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Moises Caicedo to be carded at 29/10 (Unibet)
BuildABet @ 25/1
- Brighton +1 handicap
- Moises Caicedo to be carded
- Julio Enciso to score from outside the box
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
Home 23/10 | Draw 3/1 | Away 19/20
Brighton haven't quite hit the highs of last season, but 23/24 has been a comfortable campaign for the Seagulls as they continue punch above their weight in the Premier League.
Expectations were high after their Europa League qualification last term, but Roberto De Zerbi has done a decent job given his starting midfield was sold in the summer and he's been without two key attackers pretty much all season (Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March).
Chelsea are finishing with a flourish, and are in with a great chance of securing European football. If Manchester City beat Manchester United in the FA Cup final, then seventh would be enough for a Europa Conference League spot, though the Red Devils spring an upset then only sixth will do.
They enter the final two matches level on points with sixth-placed Newcastle but have an inferior goal difference (by 10), and can't really afford any slip ups.
What are the best bets?
Having said that though, I think they will slip up here, and I think BRIGHTON are a cracking bet to avoid defeat, with the 5/6 on offer in the DOUBLE CHANCE market making great appeal.
The price is huge, simply because the Seagulls have made the Amex a fortress. If we exclude their two hammerings against the two sides clearly streets clear of the rest this season (Arsenal and Manchester City), then their home record reads W8 D6 L1.
That sole 'non-elite-team' loss came against West Ham in their second home game of the season, so since then they have gone unbeaten against everyone bar the title challengers.
Chelsea are nowhere near the levels of Arsenal and City, and while it could be argued that their recent levels have been similar to Aston Villa's and Spurs, it's worth remembering that Brighton beat both of those at the Amex in convincing fashion, especially the former in the most recent home match winning the xG battle 2.53 to 0.05.
Add this to the fact that Chelsea have won just one of their last six away matches, and three of their last 13, conceding 2.27 xGA per game in that time and the Blues are easily opposed at the prices on Wednesday.
I also can't resist a punt on MOISES CAICEDO TO BE CARDED, with the former Brighton man set for a tricky evening back at his old stamping ground.
The Chelsea midfielder has 10 yellows to his name already this season, an average of 0.33 cards per 90, and is set to be up against some tricky and dynamic Seagull attackers, in particular Julio Enciso and Ansu Fati.
In the reverse game he was fortunate to avoid a card, committing three fouls, and he could be in for a somewhat hostile reception given he nearly upset the Brighton applecart in January 2023 after being very unhappy about not being allowed to leave the club. 29/10 looks big, he's 6/4 in placees.
Team news
Joel Veltman came off with a knock at the weekend, as did Julio Enciso, though both are expected to be fit to start here, but Joao Pedro is out after suffering an an ankle injury in training.
Chelsea captain Reece James made a late cameo against Nottingham Forest as he made his comeback from injury, as did Malo Gusto. Gusto should start here as he is seemingly ahead of James in terms of fitness, and while Axel Disasi is fit, Trevoh Chalobah's form could see him keep his place at the back for the Blues.
Predicted line-up
Brighton XI: Verbruggen; Lamptey, Dunk, Webster, Igor; Gilmour, Gross; Adingra, Enciso, Fati; Welbeck
Chelsea XI: Petrovic; Gusto, Chalobah, Badiashile, Cucurella; Caicedo, Gallagher; Sterling, Palmer, Mudryk; Jackson
Match facts
- After a five-game unbeaten run against Chelsea between 2021 and 2023 (W2 D3), Brighton have lost both meetings with the Blues in all competitions this season.
- Chelsea lost this exact fixture 4-1 last season, but have never lost consecutive visits to Brighton in all competitions.
- Chelsea have only won their final away league game in one of the last six seasons (D1 L4), beating Leeds United 3-0 in 2021-22.
- Brighton have failed to score more than once in each of their last 11 Premier League games, their longest such run in the competition. They last had a longer run without scoring at least twice in a league game between March and August 2015 (12), last having a longer such run in a single season in 2004-05 (a run of 15 between September and December 2004).
- Chelsea have won 29 points in the Premier League in 2024 (P16 W8 D5 L3), with only the top three clubs Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool winning more since the turn of the year. Indeed, the Blues have lost just one of their last 13 league games (W7 D5), and will be looking to win four on the bounce for the first time since October 2022.
- Chelsea have lost each of their last six away Premier League games played in midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) since a 0-0 draw with Brentford in October 2022. Their last such win was in May 2022 at Leeds United (3-0) – which was their final away league game of the 2021-22 campaign.
- Brighton have won 16 of their 33 Premier League home games under Roberto De Zerbi (D9 L8). A win over Chelsea will mean the Italian has won more matches with the Seagulls at the Amex Stadium in the competition than any other manager, overtaking Graham Potter’s 16 wins in 60 such games (Chris Hughton won 13 of 38).
- If James Milner features for Brighton in this game, it will be the 38th different time he’s played against Chelsea in the Premier League – the joint-most any player has faced an opponent in the competition’s history (Ryan Giggs also 38 v Liverpool).
- Cole Palmer has had a hand in 31 Premier League goals this season (21 goals, 10 assists), with only three Chelsea players contributing more goal involvements in a single season in the competition; Didier Drogba in 2009-10 (39 – 29G, 10A), Frank Lampard in 2009-10 (36 – 22G, 14A), and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink in 2000-01 (32 – 23G, 9A).
- Nicolas Jackson has been directly involved in five goals in his last three Premier League games for Chelsea (4 goals, 1 assist), as many as in his previous 11 such games (3 goals, 2 assists). Indeed, with 14 league goals already this term, none of which have been penalties, he could be the first player for the Blues to score 15 non-penalty goals in a Premier League season since Tammy Abraham in 2019-20.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (14/05/24)
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