Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Real Madrid host Bayern Munich in their semi-final second leg encounter on Wednesday. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Konrad Laimer to be carded at 13/5 (bet365)
1pt Jamal Musiala to be carded at 17/2 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 22/1
- Jamal Musiala to be carded
- Harry Kane to commit 1+ fouls
- Real Madrid 5+ corners
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: TNT Sports 1
Home 5/6 | Draw 29/10 | Away 29/10
Agg. score: Real Madrid 2-2 Bayern Munich
These two sides played out a highly entertaining first leg in Bavaria last week, and Vinicius Jr.'s equaliser in the latter stages put the ball firmly in Real Madrid's court for progression to the final.
They have home advantage and a level score going into the second meeting - the odds of 2/5 that they reach Wembley a clear indication of how the money thinks this game will play out.
Opta give Real a 67% chance of doing just that with 42% on them winning the whole thing - that lines up with the 6/5 odds in the outright market.
Best prices of 10/11 are out there that they can get the job done here in 90 minutes, with 17/20 and 5/6 also appealing odds.
What are the best bets?
I'd have no issues backing those prices on a home win in normal time, but the appointment of Szymon Marciniak as the referee makes cards an appealing route.
As mentioned in the Tuesday preview of PSG vs Dortmund, you do typically see cards at this stage of the competition.
Excluding the Covid season, the second leg of Champions League semi-finals across the past five years have seen an average of 5.4 cards per game.
Remarkably, of those ten games, nine have seen at least five - with Real Madrid's 2-2 with Bayern Munich in 2018 the only one not to hit the marker (that had four as Real held a 2-1 lead).
Two Bayern Munich players catch the eye and we'll start with the shorter price - KONRAD LAIMER is definitely a name to consider in this market.
The midfielder has averaged 1.9 fouls per Champions League game this season - the highest in the Bayern squad - with a huge total of four fouls despite avoiding a card in the first leg.
Across both legs with Arsenal, he returned five fouls. A trip to Copenhagen in the group stage saw four. He could have easily had more than the two yellows on his European tally this season.
Starting further up the pitch will be JAMAL MUSIALA, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been trying to contribute defensively either.
He's committed at least one foul in nine of his ten European outings this season - that led to a card being shown in the group stage win away at Copenhagen.
It may only require the one to convince the referee to dish out a booking. His statistics this season do give hope to the 'overs' certainly hitting in this area.
Marciniak has averaged 4.83 cards per game across 40 so far, although all five of his Champions League games have seen at least five - there were nine in PSG's 1-1 home draw with Newcastle in November.
Team news
Real Madrid are boosted by the return of Dani Carvajal at right-back after he served his suspension during the first leg.
David Alaba remains unavailable for the home side though with a knee injury.
Bayern have more problems in terms of availability with Kingsley Coman, Raphaël Guerreiro and Bouna Sarr all out through injury.
Matthijs de Ligt may not make it due to a knee injury, while Dayot Upamecano has an ankle issue. Eric Dier will also be assessed after a head injury sustained against Stuttgart last time out.
Predicted line-ups
Real Madrid XI: Lunin; Carvajal, Rüdiger, Tchouaméni, Mendy; Valverde, Kroos, Camavinga, Bellingham; Vinícius, Rodrygo.
Bayern Munich XI: Neuer; Kimmich, De Ligt, Dier, Mazraoui; Goretzka, Laimer; Sané, Müller, Musiala; Kane.
Match facts
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with FC Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League (W6 D2), while they haven’t lost any of their last seven games against them in the competition at the Santiago Bernabeu (W6 D1).
- Across their previous seven semi-final ties in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, FC Bayern München (4) have progressed on more occasions than Real Madrid (3). However, should los Blancos progress here, it would be the first time a team has won three consecutive semi-final ties in this fixture (2013-14 and 2017-18 previously).
- Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti hasn’t lost any of his nine meetings with FC Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League (W6 D3) – following the 2-2 draw in this first leg, this is now the most times a coach has faced an opponent while remaining unbeaten in the history of the competition.
- FC Bayern München’s run of 16 consecutive games without a clean sheet against Real Madrid is their longest against an opponent in their European Cup/UEFA Champions League history. Their last shutout against the Spanish side in the competition was back in May 2001, which also came at this stage of the competition (semi-final, first leg).
- Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti is looking to reach a sixth UEFA Champions League final, with his current total of five already the most of any manager. Meanwhile, FC Bayern München’s Thomas Tuchel could become the first coach to reach the final of the competition with as many as three different sides (previously with Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea).
- FC Bayern München failed to win away from home in the round of 16 (0-1 v Lazio) and quarter-finals (2-2 v Arsenal) in the UEFA Champions League this season. They haven’t gone three consecutive away games without a win in a single campaign since 2015-16 (3); a season in which they were eliminated at the semi-final stage by Atlético de Madrid.
- Real Madrid’s opener in the first leg (scored by Vinícius Júnior) came at the end of a 20-pass sequence; their longest for a goal in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages since May 2018, which came against FC Bayern München at the Santiago Bernabeu (28 passes leading to a Karim Benzema goal).
- After netting in the first leg, FC Bayern München striker Harry Kane (29) is now just one goal away from equalling Wayne Rooney (30) as the all-time top English scorer in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.
- 25% of Toni Kroos’ passes in the UEFA Champions League this season have broken at least one opposition line; the highest percentage of any player (min. 300 minutes played). Indeed, the Real Madrid midfielder’s 23 line-breaking passes in the first leg of this tie were more than twice as many as any other player (Konrad Laimer, 10).
- Since the start of the 2021-22 season, FC Bayern München’s Leroy Sané has been directly involved in more goals following a carry (travelling 5+ metres with the ball) than any other player in the UEFA Champions League (11 – eight goals and three assists).
Odds correct at 1800 BST (06/05/24)
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