Tom Carnduff's TV tips: Old Firm, Premier League & Sky Bet EFL best bets and predictions
Football betting tips: TV games
1.5pts Bukayo Saka to commit 2+ fouls in Man Utd vs Arsenal (16:30) at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 13/2 | Draw 9/2 | Away 1/3
We’re winding down into an expected summer of change at Manchester United, even with an FA Cup final on the horizon.
Erik ten Hag’s reign of terror is likely to end once the season concludes. To be fair to him, it’s been an entertaining experience for those of us who don’t support the club.
Anything less than a win will surely put an end to Arsenal's hopes of winning the title.
They are a short price to secure maximum points - 2/5 the best on offer - meaning we're forced elsewhere to find value.
Sky Bet offer 2/1 on BUKAYO SAKA TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS which is interesting when you look at some of his away performances this season.
The winger has averaged 1.1 fouls per Premier League game, yet a pattern emerges when he plays those other 'big six teams'.
Saka returned three fouls in Arsenal's draw at Liverpool in December, while he also had the same amount against Chelsea in October.
Trips to Tottenham and Manchester City saw two fouls committed - with another two in their recent 5-0 thrashing of Chelsea at the Emirates.
Most bookmakers go around the 7/4 marker on this bet which is a completely fine price if that 2/1 best isn't accessible.
In a game Arsenal are expected to secure victory in, it's worth siding with Saka to contribute when out of possession.
Already advised
1.5pts Crewe to take the most corners vs Doncaster (20:00) at Evens (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Celtic to beat Rangers (12:30) at 10/11 (General)
2pts MK Dons to beat Crawley in 90 minutes (19:45) at 3/4 (William Hill)
1pt Junior Firpo 1+ assists in Norwich vs Leeds (12:00) at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Michael Johnston 1+ assists in West Brom vs Southampton (14:15) at 8/1 (bet365)
Last weekend's column was RUBBISH, so let's move on quickly.
The Sky Bet Championship play-offs get under way on Sunday, with two intriguing games taking place between those hoping for promotion to the Premier League.
Before that though, the Sky Bet League Two edition will decide who takes their spot at Wembley. Doncaster host Crewe on Friday before Crawley look to defend a commanding lead as they go to MK Dons.
There's also the small matter of Celtic vs Rangers (again), while Manchester United host Arsenal in the Premier League.
Let's get going then...
Doncaster vs Crewe
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 7/10 | Draw 29/10 | Away 16/5
Doncaster are 1/100 to progress to Wembley and with good reason. They hold a 2-0 lead from the first leg and now look to get the job done in front of their own supporters.
Crewe, frankly, were awful. They could barely string two passes together let alone create real chances to get back into the game.
Will I be taking the 16/1 odds available on them overturning the deficit and making the final? No chance.
They have to make it work somehow on Friday night, despite the fact they're playing a better side. Rovers won't sit back and protect what they have but the emphasis is on Crewe to attack.
I'll take the Evens on CREWE TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS in 90 minutes.
Two of three knockout second leg ties that took place on Tuesday/Wednesday saw the trailing team take the most corners in the game.
Peterborough had 14 to Oxford's five, while PSG took 12 to Dortmund's four. The only one who didn't was Barnsley but that was narrow to Bolton, with the hosts edging it 7-6 in this area.
Villa, meanwhile, won the corner count 9-0 in defeat to Olympiacos.
They were absolutely woeful on Monday and couldn't string an attack together. Game state dictates they've gotta go for it though.
BuildABet @ 28/1
- Elliott Nevitt to be carded
- Luke Molyneux 2+ shots on target
- Crewe 5+ corners
Celtic vs Rangers
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 10/11 | Draw 29/10 | Away 13/5
Celtic have an ideal opportunity to virtually wrap up the Scottish Premiership title with victory over their rivals Rangers in Saturday's early kick-off.
Brendan Rodgers' side have been brilliant in front of their own supporters this season, losing just one of their 17 top-flight contests at Celtic Park.
One of those wins came against Rangers at the end of December, while they failed to hold on despite scoring late in the Ibrox meeting a few weeks ago.
Prices of 10/11 are available on a CELTIC WIN here.
A defeat to Ross County and a draw with Dundee seriously damaged Rangers' title hopes in recent away outings, while they just about found a way through St. Mirren thanks to Cyriel Dessers' second-half goal in their last contest on the road.
Celtic's confidence levels should be high following an impressive 3-0 win over Hearts last time out too. It's worth siding with the near even money odds on offer for another victory here.
BuildABet @ 21/1
- Celtic to win
- James Tavernier 4+ tackles
- Callum McGregor 3+ tackles
MK Dons vs Crawley
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 8/11 | Draw 14/5 | Away 16/5
Tie over before a ball is kicked in the second leg? Most likely.
Crawley hold a 3-0 win following a remarkable result in their rescheduled first leg on Tuesday, leaving MK Dons with a mammoth task in front of their own supporters on Saturday evening.
They've largely been good in front of their own fans at least, making the 3/4 best price for MK DONS TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES particularly appealing.
Mansfield are the only side to have beaten MK Dons at Stadium MK across their last ten, with eight of those ending in victory.
The meeting between these two at the end of December ended 2-0 in favour of the home side - a theme throughout the three games so far this season.
Game state benefits this selection but I would have had Mike Williamson's side as winning the second leg anyway. This is still a value selection.
Norwich vs Leeds
- Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 23/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/10
Leeds need a huge reset if they are to enjoy success in the play-offs.
An awful end to the campaign saw them fall behind in the race for automatic promotion. A trip to a Norwich side strong at home is hardly ideal when you need a result and a reaction.
Rather than gamble on a result in a game that's tough to call, I'll side with the 11/2 on JUNIOR FIRPO 1+ ASSISTS.
The Leeds left-back missed nearly the entire first-half of the season through injury, but his return in the second has delivered seven assists in league contests.
Two of them came in the recent away win at Middlesbrough, and it's hardly a surprise to see him contribute this many when we consider how advanced he can be.
It helps that he's on the same side of the pitch as Crysencio Summerville, with a pass to the talented winger potentially enough if he cuts inside and finds the far corner as we've seen so many times.
BuildABet @ 23/1
- Junior Firpo 1+ assists
- Crysencio Summerville 2+ shots on target
- Leeds 5+ corners
West Brom vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 14:15 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 7/4 | Draw 23/10 | Away 6/4
West Brom's chances of progression to Wembley will likely depend on a positive outcome in the first leg at the Hawthorns.
They've been a solid side in front of their own supporters all season, although they were beaten by Sunday's opponents Southampton when they visited in mid-February.
The bonus for the Baggies is that they have a manager in Carlos Corberan who has recent play-off experience after guiding Huddersfield to the final in 2022.
Instead of gamble in the outright market given some uncertainty, I'll side with the 8/1 on MICHAEL JOHNSTON 1+ ASSISTS.
It's a surprise to see just the one assist on his tally following his late January switch on loan from Celtic.
He creates a big number of chances for his team mates, both from open play and set-piece situations, with a huge total of eight in his previous two outings.
Don't let the small total put you off in this market - he's more than played his part in this West Brom attack.
BuildABet @ 33/1
- Michael Johnston 1+ assists
- Brandon Thomas-Asante 2+ shots on target
- Adam Armstrong to commit 2+ fouls
Odds correct at 0930 BST (10/05/24)
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