Football tips, predictions and best bets: La Liga 28/04/24
Football betting tips: Sunday best bets
1.5pt A red card shown in Real Betis vs Sevilla (20:00) at 5/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Both teams to receive a red card in Real Betis vs Sevilla (20:00) at 28/1 (William Hill)
1pts Elye Wahi to score anytime in Marseille vs Lens (20:00) at 5/2 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Real Betis vs Sevilla
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Premier Sports 1, La Liga TV
- Home 21/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/5
There is the small matter of the Seville derby on Sunday night, where, as ever, pride and motivation will be running extremely high.
Betis currently sit seventh in La Liga, good enough for a Europa Conference League qualifying spot, but they are just one point above Valencia and three back of Real Sociedad who occupy a Europa League spot, making every game crucial.
Sevilla are 12th, well clear of the drop zone but a long way off the European spots. Their main motivation here comes through having a chance to damage their bitter rivals' hopes and silence a loud home crowd in the process.
This is one of Europe's most vicious and card-laden derbies, with the last 30 editions delivering an eye-watering average of 7.16 cards per game. There have been 14 red cards in those matches, an average of 0.46 per game, meaning the 5/2 available for a RED CARD IN THE MATCH looks too big.
Both meetings between the pair last season saw a red card, and with Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez overseeing proceedings, we could again be in for a high card count and possible reds.
He has dished out an average of 5.8 cards per game this season and has flashed three reds in his last six outings, plus, he isn't a stranger to the Seville derby. He oversaw this exact fixture last season, and get this, he handed out not one, not two, but THREE red cards on that occasion - two coming before half-time!
In that game he brandished A RED CARD TO EACH TEAM, and that looks well worth a dabble at a big price here. It wouldn't surprise me if this really did get ugly, and it wasn't long ago that this bet won in a game involving one of Betis and Sevilla.
You only have to go back five games in fact and it was a Betis home match against Villarreal that saw both sides pick up red cards.
Marseille vs Lens
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 29/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/5
We are approaching the business end of the season across the continent and on Sunday we have a big showdown for European places in France. On paper, this is must-win for eighth-placed Marseille, who are five points behind the side they welcome here, Lens, who currently occupy the final qualification spot.
But it has to be noted how OM have clearly been prioritising their Europa League charge. They are winless in five league games, losing three and conceding 11 in that time.
This then could be another they game overlook, with a huge semi-final first leg against Atalanta approaching on Thursday. It seems their eggs are in that basket, as if they win that competition they would not only pick up a trophy, but they would also qualify for the Champions League. Via the league route the best they could probably do would be Europa Conference League.
So how do we profit? Well, Lens' price to win appeals given how badly they need points for their own European chances, but I think backing their striker ELYE WAHI TO SCORE ANYTIME is the way in.
Lens' own form is patchy, just three wins in nine league games, so I don't think I can trust them even against a potentially demotivated Marseille, but we should expect them to score at least once, maybe twice against what has become a leaky backline.
That should mean chances for Wahi, who has scored six times in his last 11 outings. In that time he's averaged 3.04 shots and 0.56 xG per 90 minutes, so has been getting plenty of chances when on the pitch.
At 5/2, his price to find the net looks on the large side.
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