PSG vs Dortmund betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Vitinha to be carded at 15/2 (bet365)
1pt Julian Ryerson to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Vitinha and Ryerson both to be carded at 35/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 20/1
- 60+ booking points
- Ousmane Dembele 2+ shots on target
- 12+ match corners
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: TNT Sports 1
Home 4/9 | Draw 19/5 | Away 21/4
Agg. score: PSG 0-1 Dortmund
Dortmund hold a slender advantage following last week's first leg, but they face a huge task in protecting that lead as they go to the French capital.
Niclas Füllkrug's goal was the only one of that contest yet PSG had numerous chances to level things up. They can't afford to be that wasteful again in front of their own supporters.
The hosts also got the opportunity to rest everyone with no domestic game at the weekend. Dortmund made wholesale changes as they thrashed Augsburg 5-1 in the Bundesliga.
PSG are a best price of 3/4 to progress to the final and it's hard to disagree with the odds having them as the favourites. Home advantage will be key as they aim to reach Wembley.
What are the best bets?
Typically, the second leg of Champions League semi-finals are very good for card betting.
It seems fairly self-explanatory. One team is chasing, one team is protecting, you get a lot of fouls made where teams don't want to take risks and would rather the 'safety' of a card with no suspension fears.
Excluding the Covid season, the second leg of Champions League semi-finals across the past five years have seen an average of 5.4 cards per game.
Remarkably, of those ten games, nine have seen at least five - with Real Madrid's 2-2 with Bayern Munich in 2018 the only one not to hit the marker (that had four as Real held a 2-1 lead).
It's not necessarily a case of it being the team with the lead either. AC Milan, Real Madrid and Villarreal have been chasing a result in recent seasons - all of those saw four cards each.
So we don't have to ignore half of the market by just looking at one side. Add in a referee in Daniele Orsato who has averaged 5.08 cards per game and the potential is there.
Who do we focus on then? JULIAN RYERSON could be in for a busy night - he completed five successful tackles in the first leg.
A best price of 15/4 is available with 7/2 elsewhere. The right-back committed three fouls in each of their away games at Atletico Madrid and PSV but managed to avoid a card in both.
He does have five bookings across all competitions this season and should come up against Kylian Mbappe a fair few times - he'll drift to the left even if starting as the centre forward.
Ryerson has also returned at least one foul in seven of ten away Bundesliga appearances.
On the PSG side of things, VITINHA TO BE CARDED was an eye-catching selection in the market at 15/2.
The midfielder has committed at least one foul in all nine of his Champions League starts, with two or more coming in five of those.
Home starts against Dortmund and Milan in the group stage, alongside knockout clashes with Barcelona and Sociedad, also delivered a couple in each.
It's a slight surprise to see that only two cards have come across the European campaign but he should be a player that catches Orsato's attention at some stage across the 90 minutes.
Team news
With suspensions resetting before the semi-final stage, neither side have players unavailable because of card-based reasons.
PSG are without Lucas Hernández after he suffered an ACL injury during the first-half of the previous meeting - he is likely to be replaced by Beraldo in the PSG defence.
Dortmund are unlikely to change from their first leg starting XI after making a number of changes for their league game at the weekend.
Ramy Bensebaini is the only player missing through injury, while Sébastien Haller should be fit enough to take his spot on the bench.
Predicted line-ups
PSG XI: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes; Zaïre-Emery, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz; Dembélé, Mbappé, Barcola.
Dortmund XI: Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Can, Sabitzer; Adeyemi, Brandt, Sancho; Füllkrug.
Match facts
- This will be the eighth meeting between Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund in European competition, with both sides winning two games apiece to date (three draws). All four of the victories recorded in this fixture have been by the team playing at home.
- Borussia Dortmund have faced Paris Saint-Germain away from home in Europe on three occasions, but have never won (D1 L2) or scored on any of those trips. They were beaten 2-0 away to the French side in this season’s group stage in September, and only managed one shot on target in that game.
- Paris Saint-Germain are aiming to reach a European Cup/UEFA Champions League final for just the second time (previously in 2019-20), while Borussia Dortmund could do so for the third time in their history, after 1996-97 and 2012-13; the latter being the last time the final of this competition was played at Wembley.
- Following their 6-4 aggregate win over Barcelona in the previous round, Paris Saint-Germain could become the first side to lose the first leg in both the quarter-finals and semi-finals in a UEFA Champions League campaign and still progress to reach the final.
- Paris Saint-Germain have only failed to score in two of their last 38 home games in the UEFA Champions League (93 goals scored in this run), with FC Bayern München being the team to keep a clean sheet on both of those occasions (1-0 in February 2023 and April 2021).
- Borussia Dortmund are the side with the biggest difference between goals conceded and expected goals against in the UEFA Champions League this season (+10.7 – nine conceded from 19.7 xG against). The only two instances of a team hitting the woodwork twice and failing to score in a game in the competition this term were both against Edin Terzic’s side (PSG in the first leg and Newcastle in October 2023).
- Paris Saint-Germain have trailed on the scoreboard (339 minutes) for longer than they’ve been ahead (291 minutes) in the UEFA Champions League this season. They’ve also conceded the opening goal in each of their last three games in the competition, their longest such run since April 2015 (4).
- Paris Saint-Germain’s Kylian Mbappé has been directly involved in 32 goals in 31 home games he’s started in the UEFA Champions League (21 goals, 11 assists). Indeed, only once previously has he failed to score in both legs of a knockout stage tie in the competition when starting in both matches (v Real Madrid in the round of 16 in 2017-18).
- Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho has completed more dribbles (22) than any other player in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League this season. 13 of those came in the first leg against Paris Saint-Germain; the most by a player in a knockout stage game in the competition since Neymar v Atalanta in August 2020 (15 for PSG).
- Kylian Mbappé has created the most chances under pressure (23) of any player in the UEFA Champions League this season, although none of those have been converted by a Paris Saint-Germain teammate. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer is the player with the most assists under pressure (5) in the competition this term.
Odds correct at 1225 BST (06/05/24)
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