Golf betting tips: The Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches final round preview
Matt Cooper looks ahead to the final round of the Cognizant Classic and has a 28/1 each-way fancy to lift the trophy.
Golf betting tips: The Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches final round preview
1pt e.w. Victor Perez at 28/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4)
2pts two-ball double: Jorge Campillo to beat Adam Schenk and Min Woo Lee to beat Martin Laird at 2.9/1 (Ladbrokes)
Is it a case of third time lucky for Shane Lowry in the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches? He’s been mighty close (and close) in the last two years and now he heads into the final round tied for the lead on 13-under 200 with unheralded Englishman David Skinns and youngster Austin Eckroat. The trio are three shots clear of a five-man chasing pack made up of Min Woo Lee, Jacob Bridgeman, Martin Laird, Kevin Yu and Victor Perez.
Two years ago Lowry was piecing together a superb final round on the Champions Course at PGA National and looked set to land the win only for Sepp Straka to hit a hot streak late in the round and catch him through 71 holes whereupon it all went a little bit lop-sided. At the par-5 final hole Straka found the fairway and then hit the green – he’d also two-putt for birdie. But in the seconds after his approach shot landed a storm whipped up, the wind changed and driving rain ensured Lowry’s drive was nearly 100 yards shorter than Straka’s. He had no option but to lay up and could not find the extra holes-forcing birdie. Last year he headed into the final round in fourth ahead of finishing fifth, but this year offers real hope of finally lifting the trophy.
The Irishman is seeking a third PGA Tour title, in contrast to his co-leaders who are yet to taste success at this level and four of the five chasers are in the same situation (Laird is a four-time winner). Lowry’s fondness for the test runs deep, too. He’s made the cut in all his six previous visits, has been top 10 at some point in five of them, he’s sleeping in his own bed this week, is having fun hosting Padraig Harrington and says: “Even though the scoring is pretty good this year, I like playing tough golf. I like when everything is on the line a lot out there. You’re standing there over a lot of shots on this golf course where one bad swing can lead to a big number.”
It’s all a little reminiscent of how he banged on the door at Wentworth time after time before finally registering the win in September 2022 (his last victory as it happens). He’s the 9/5 favourite and with good reason. He leads the field for Strokes Gained Approach but on a course where driving matters – and where he’s driven it well in the past – he is ranked only 38th through 54 holes.
There is also an echo in the back story of Skinns. The 42-year-old is originally from Lincoln and four years ago was earning a crust as a food delivery driver. Sound familiar? Just last week Joe Dean, who plays out of College Pines GC in Worksop and was still driving for a supermarket days before, recorded second place in the Kenya Open. As Colin Welland didn’t quite say in his 1982 Oscars acceptance speech: “The North-east Midlands-based delivery drivers are coming!”
It’s understandably a heady week for Skinns. He’s had only one full crack at the PGA Tour ahead of this season and in 32 starts he has a best of T29th. He did share the halfway lead in the 2022 Byron Nelson Championship but many will expect his response – a 74 to fall out the top 20 – to be good for a repeat.
Against that, he’s a seven-time winner on the Hooters Tour and three-time champion on the Korn Ferry Tour. And might there be something in PGA National being a Tom Fazio original design (before Jack Nicklaus renovated it)? Skinns’ win on last year’s second tier was on a Fazio creation and he was also third on another shortly after. He’s ranking eighth Off the Tee and second for Putting through three rounds. A neat combination but he’s the outsider of the leaders at 8/1.
He said the right things on Saturday evening. “I wouldn’t say I have nerves,” he insisted. “I’ve just been waiting a long time to be in this spot. You want to feel these juices. You want to be there on Sunday.” The juices will no doubt be running a little swifter this Sunday but he has his family on hand and it’s worked the trick in the past: “They actually made it when I won on the Korn Ferry Tour. I love playing in front of them. They’re the reason that I work as hard as I do, and we’ll try to give them a show tomorrow.”
The middle-man Eckroat (available at 15/4) has been second, fifth and seventh on Fazio layouts (and Lowry has never missed a cut on one) so maybe they all cancel one another out on that angle. He is currently fifth Off the Tee and seventh for Putting so attacking the course in much the same way as Skinns. This is his eighth cut made in nine starts and his best of that run was eighth at Sea Island.
“There’s mistakes on every hole out there,” he said after round three. “It’s just a hard golf course. If you’re not keeping it in the fairway, it can definitely go away quickly here.”
History favours the leaders. There have been 17 editions of this tournament at PGA National and 15 of the winners were tied second or better at this stage, although the two exceptions (Ernie Els in 2008 and Sungjae Im in 2020) were three blows back of the lead.
Of the five in that spot currently Lee is the shortest price at 12/1. He’ll need his hot putter of the third round (fourth best in the field) rather than his errant driver of Friday (109th). But there’s no doubt that his A game would give him a shot at a PGA Tour breakthrough.
Could Frenchman PEREZ sneak up on the blind side?
He might (or might not) take inspiration from what his compatriot Matthieu Pavon has achieved this year when getting into contention. The 31-year-old’s best golf is fuelled by his driver and the long game and he has an intriguing record when in this kind of position.
In 17 instances of him being top five with 18 holes to play on the first and second tier they have, a) all been tied fourth (as he is now) or better and b) there is quite a split. Four times he carded 75 or more to fall out the top 15. But 12 times he recorded top four finishes. Nine of those were top three, five of them wins.
His last win came just over a year ago when he actually chased down Lowry (and just pipped Lee). Most books are going each way with three places at the moment but Sky Bet and Betway offer four places and the former are top price 28/1 which earns the selection.
And take JORGE CAMPILLO to win his two-ball against Adam Schenk. He landed a top 20 in Mexico and he was also fifth in Qatar two weeks before that. The pair start the day T61st and Campillo could pick Schenck off at 6/4.
Add LEE (4/7) to win his pairing with Laird who has missed all four cuts at this course previously. The double is close to 3/1 at Ladbrokes.
Posted at 1008 GMT on 03/03/24
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