Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
World No.1 Scottie Scheffler is tied for the lead with 18 to play at Bay Hill but Dave Tindall is looking elsewhere in Sunday’s final round.
Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational final round
1pt e.w. Rory McIlroy at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Harris English at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
When Will Zalatoris walked off the 11th green at Bay Hill on Saturday with a five-stroke lead, there seemed a possibility that this preview could have to go down the route of betting without him. But there are certainly no ‘Without Zalatoris’ markets now.
A pair of double bogeys in his final four holes means the American will start his closing lap in tied fourth, two behind the lead.
It’s been a common refrain this week to hear conditions described as ‘Major-like’. With no-one at double digits under par that has merit. And to further cement the idea, the top three on the leaderboard after close of play on Saturday were all major champions. Scottie Scheffler and Shane Lowry share the lead at 9-under after both shot third-round 70s while Wyndham Clark is a further stroke in arrears after a 71.
The rest of the top 10 are no worse than five off the pace. Zalatoris (71) shares fourth with Russell Henley (72) and another Major winner, Hideki Matusyama (72), on 7-under, Harris English is solo seventh at 6-under while Rory McIlroy (68), Sam Burns (71) and Max Homa (71) are all still in the hunt at 5-under.
Perhaps we could look further down still for the champion but no Bay Hill winner this century has come from more than five back with 18 to play. That’s a lot of history to overcome and there just seem to be too many elite players at the top end of the leaderboard for it to change this week.
Scheffler has reached the top with positive Strokes Gained: Putting figures and is literally getting better by the day with his new mallet putter. Ranked 55th for SGP on day one, he was 28th in round two and 10th in round three. If the putter is working, it’s very easy to think that Scheffler will score his second win here in three years but is anyone leaping out of their seats to back him at 6/4 when you could find the same price and suffer much less stress in a two-ball? A 3-for-8 conversion rate with 54-hole leads on the PGA Tour is also not compelling.
Lowry made a couple of daft mistakes in round three but birdies at 16 and 17 secured a tie for the lead and a place in the final pairing (5.35pm GMT). With so many Open champions finding exposed Florida courses to their liking, it does seem a little odd that Lowry hasn’t won in the Sunshine State yet. It may just be a matter of time and after starting last week’s Cognizant Classic tied for the 54-hole lead but slipping to fourth, this could be an ideal chance to make amends. It often helps when the first chance to right the wrong follows quickly.
The Irishman is strong across the board so far this week: 4th Tee To Green, 7th for both Off The Tee and Approach, 13th Around The Green and 15th for Putting. He gained strokes in all those categories on Saturday and certainly won’t mind a Sunday weather forecast that shows winds around 15mph in the afternoon.
I’m close to putting him up at 4/1 but there are a couple of negatives. He’s 1-for-3 on the PGA Tour with a 54-hole lead and the one time he converted was on the other side of the Atlantic: his famous Open win at Royal Portrush. Perhaps I shouldn’t be but I’m also put off by his Bay Hill record before this week of 67-MC-MC-MC-MC.
RORY McILROY is a fascinating prospect at 18/1 having touched 400/1 (yes, you read that right) at one stage when falling over-par for the tournament after back-to-back bogeys at the 7th and 8th on Saturday. Rory’s round then became hallucinatory stuff as he became the first man in Bay Hill history, well ShotLink era Bay Hill history, to drive the 10th green by launching his ball over some houses. He followed birdie there with five more to come home in an astonishing 28 and then sat back and watched others falter.
Does this now have echoes of his 2010 Quail Hollow win (made the cut on the line and won by four) or those fast finishes to win Tour Championships? Rory comebacks aren’t just from the archives either. Let’s not forget that less than two months ago he was 10 shots in arrears after 36 holes of the Dubai Desert Classic before storming through to win.
Indeed, Rory referred back to that event when speaking later: “It doesn't feel too dissimilar to the Dubai Desert Classic at the start of the year. I feel like I won that golf tournament in 27 holes. I shot 9-under on Saturday and 3-under on the front nine on Sunday, and sort of cruised, I didn't really do much else. When the golf course is playing as tough as this, you sort of only need like two really good nine-hole stretches, and then you can sort of play conservative and make a lot of pars the rest of the way.”
Well, he’s seduced me and I’m happy to roll the dice at 16s or bigger.
US Open champion Wyndham Clark, declared the winner after 54 holes at Pebble Beach just three starts ago, could certainly be seen as a spot of value at 7/1. He’s the third best putter so far and is also in the top three for Off The Tee. Zalatoris is also capable of coming back from his Saturday wobble and 10/1 is perfectly fine on a player whose next win looks imminent.
But whereas there’s an element of emotion with McIlroy’s pick, I’m going to take a more clinical approach with my second choice. Like many Major tests, it often comes down to who makes the fewest mistakes. That was the case here 12 months ago when the first two home - Kurt Kitayama and Harris English - were 2nd and 1st for Bogey Avoidance. For all his theatre when winning in 2021, Bryson DeChambeau ended that week joint 1st for BA.
Another key stat is SG: Approach (Scheffler ranked 1st in his 2021 win, Tyrrell Hatton 2nd when lifting the trophy in 2021). So of those in my search parameters (anyone within five of the lead i.e. the current top 10), I’m looking for a player high in the Bogey Avoidance and SG: Approach charts.
There’s no absolute perfect fit but HARRIS ENGLISH’s bad stuff (the combined over par tally of bogeys and worse) is fourth best of the top 10. As he showed last year, the American is able to plot his way around this course and keep the squares/double squares off his scorecard. Adding to that he ranks 4th for SG: Approach so far.
English’s 4-under 68 was the joint-low round of the day (with McIlroy) on Saturday and he said later: “I really enjoy how tough this place plays. Not too far off how a US Open plays. It feels like a Major-type golf course. They got the rough up, got the greens firm and fast, you got to play some chess out here, and it's not about overpowering it.
You can hit driver all you want, but if you're playing out of the rough, you're not going to hit it very close to the hole. I don't know, just something about it fits my eye. I just enjoy playing really tough setups. It plays into my hands. You got to chip it, got to putt it good inside six feet.”
Well, English certainly loves a US Open test after a third, a fourth and an eighth in three of the last four. Sure, there are some outstanding names around him but for a man who finished runner-up last year and ninth two appearances before that, the 25/1 each-way is a bet. He’ll start the final round just three off the lead.
Posted at 0908 GMT on 10/03/24
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