League One play-off final tips: Bolton vs Oxford best bets and preview
Football betting tips: League One play-off final
1pt Eoin Toal to score anytime at 10/1 (Betfair, Paddys, Sky Bet)
0.5pts Ricardo Santos to score anytime at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
* All bets 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 35/1
- Bolton to win
- Eoin Toal to score anytime
- George Thomason to be carded
Bolton are one game away from a return to the Sky Bet Championship.
Ian Evatt’s side were the play-off favourites and finished third 10 points ahead of Oxford.
Wanderers also have had the better of the U’s recently, only losing one of their last eight head-to-heads, they thumped them 5-0 in their last meeting.
Although they only beat Barnsley by a one goal margin across two legs, Bolton dominated for the vast majority of the 180 minutes before a late Sam Cosgrove goal set up a nervy finish.
Oxford were also under the cosh against Peterborough who carved out four ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30) and an xG of 1.46 in the second leg.
Des Buckingham’s side rode their luck and if he is going to guide his side to the Championship for the first time in the clubs history (since the re-brand), another big performance is required.
What are the best bets?
Of the 26 goals scored in the last 10 Sky Bet League One play-off finals, 10 have come from set pieces. That is over a third.
It’s logical thinking dead ball situations win these sort of clashes, derby’s, cup finals, play-offs, but to see it backed up with statistics is very exciting for an opportunistic centre back goalscorer enthusiast.
Better still, Bolton scored 21 goals from set pieces this season, the second most in the third tier and the joint-fifth most in the football league.
Oxford conceded 16 times from them, equating to 28% of their overall goals which is the sixth highest percentage in League One.
EOIN TOAL is the most obvious candidate. The central defender has netted five times this season and averages just under a shot per game.
With a goals per 90 average of 0.11, the 10/1 in places about him TO SCORE ANYTIME is a touch big, the same bet is 6/1 with other firms.
I have to cover his centre back partner RICARDO SANTOS TO SCORE ANYTIME as well. Santos is yet to score this term but has notched up an xG of 1.22 so he is due one.
Team news
Bolton made it through the semi’s relatively unscathed. Evatt named the same 11 in both legs and looks set to do so at Wembley, barring any late injuries.
This will mean a start for George Thomason in central midfield who notched up his 16th and 17th cards of the season against Barnsley.
As for Oxford, Joe Bennett and Tyler Goodrham were forced off with injuries against Peterborough, although both could recover in time for the final.
Predicted line-ups
Bolton: Baxter; Jones, Santos, Toal; Dacres-Cogley, Maghoma, Sheehan, Thomason, Williams; Charles, Collins
Oxford: Cumming; Sevens, Moore, Brown, Bennett; Brannagan; Dale, Goodrham, Roddrigues, Murphey; Harris
Match facts
- Bolton Wanderers have only lost one of their last eight games against Oxford (W5 D2), a 3-1 defeat in October 2022, with all eight games coming in League One.
- Oxford United lost 5-0 to Bolton in March in a League One fixture, their heaviest defeat of the season. It’s only the third time a team will face another in a Football League play-off final after losing by 5+ goals during the regular league season, along with Barnsley vs Ipswich in 1999-00 (lost 6-1 regular season, lost 4-2 in final) and Gillingham vs Shrewsbury in 2008-09 (lost 7-0 regular season, won 1-0 in final).
- This is Bolton’s first appearance in a Football League play-off final since 2001. It’s the fourth longest gap between such appearances after Port Vale (29 years, 1993/2022), Tranmere Rovers (28 years, 1991/2019) and Middlesbrough (27 years 1988/2015).
- Oxford are featuring in a Football League play-off final for just a second time – they were beaten 2-1 by Wycombe Wanderers in the 2019-20 League One final under Karl Robinson. They are looking to reach the second tier of English football for the first time since 1998-99.
- Bolton have alternated between losing (2) and winning (2) their four play-off final matches, beating Preston North End in their last such game in May 2001. Their two losses against Tranmere Rovers in 1990-91 and Watford in 1998-1999 both saw the Trotters fail to score.
- Oxford United won their first two matches at Wembley (1986 vs QPR, 2010 vs York) but have since lost each of their last three trips to the national stadium (2016 vs Barnsley, 2017 vs Coventry, 2020 vs Wycombe).
- This will be Bolton’s third competitive match at the new Wembley Stadium – they lost 5-0 against Stoke City in the 2010-11 FA Cup semi-final, before beating Plymouth Argyle 4-0 in last year’s EFL Trophy final.
- In all competitions this season, Oxford have netted 97 goals, which is 34 more than they managed last season (63). It’s their most in a season since 2016-17 (100).
- Bolton’s 121 goals in all competitions so far this season is their most ever in a single campaign, overtaking the 120 they scored in 1996-97 when they gained promotion to the Premier League.
- Cameron Brannagan has been involved in 24 goals in all competitions for Oxford United this season (13 goals, 11 assists), the joint most of any player at the club, and he’s netted five goals and assisted four more in his last 12 appearances. He also played the full 90 minutes in the U’s last League One play-off final in 2020 against Wycombe.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (16/05/24)
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