Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews and best bets

Tennis betting tips: Geneva Open & Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon

2pts win Casper Ruud in the Gonet Geneva Open at 5/2 (General)

1pt e.w. Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Gonet Geneva Open at 18/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, William Hill)

1pt win Sebastian Baez in the Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon at 8/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Federico Coria in the Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Gonet Geneva Open

• Geneva, Switzerland (outdoor clay)

It’s the return of Daniil Medvedev which will make the headlines in Geneva this week.

Having recovered from surgery to repair a hernia, the world number two will be back in action for the first time since Miami.

The decision to make his comeback on the clay surprised some, the reason being it’s clearly his worst surface.

The Russian has lost in his first match at six of his last eight claycourt tournaments. Throw in a lengthy period away from the match court and he has to be taken on this week.

The other top-10 player in the Swiss field is CASPER RUUD and he is the favourite. Rightly so.

After a poor start to the European clay season, Ruud appears to have found form at just the right time, enjoying a semi-final run in Rome last week, one only halted by world number one and eventual champion Novak Djokovic.

Usually I’d be wary of backing a top-10er in this week – the next Grand Slam of the season, Roland Garros, is looming large, starting next Sunday.

However, having suffered some surprise losses since returning to Europe, I believe Ruud will be keen to get more matches under his belt this week.

With a first-round bye, he can only play four so the workload hardly looks the toughest. The Norwegian has also been placed in what looks the weaker half of the draw having avoided Medvedev and third seed Denis Shapovalov.

Ruud won four claycourt titles in 2021 – all at this 250 level – and added another in Buenos Aires in February.

One of his victories last year came in this very tournament which is another reason to expect him to go full pelt this week – those who have done it before the week prior to a Slam also pique my interest in such events.

While I won’t be going mad with stakes – as I’ve said many times before, a slight niggle can lead to anyone withdrawing in weeks like this – I am happy to side with Ruud here.

• Click here to back Ruud with Sky Bet

Having backed Djokovic at just the right time last week, hopefully we can repeat the trick with a player who is very strong on this surface at his best.

For an outsider in the opposite half of the draw, I like the 18/1 being offered about NIKOLOZ BASILASHVILI.

Yes, I know he’s struggled for large parts of 2022, suffering a string of early exits, but he’s always been a player who is capable of producing a big week after a losing run – something he did in Doha earlier this season where he made the final.

There have also been some recent signs that he could be about to click.

The Georgian has notched wins over Ilya Ivashka, Fabio Fognini and Dan Evans in the past few weeks with some tough draws then contributing to his exit – he’s been beaten (but from far disgraced) by Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov in the past fortnight.

Shapovalov is arguably the problem for potential backers this week with the pair due to meet again in the quarter-finals.

Still, there was just one break of serve in last week’s encounter in Rome and with ‘Basil’ almost five times the price of Shapovalov, I’m prepared to take a long shot with the fifth seed.

• Click here to back Basilashvili with Sky Bet

Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon

• Lyon, France (outdoor clay)

Things look pretty open in Lyon this week with no fewer than seven players on offer at less than 10/1.

Pablo Carreno Busta is the shortest of them but his price of 5/1 only goes to show how the layers are struggling to find a favourite.

PCB was runner-up in Barcelona last month so has decent form but he’s also lost a lot of tight matches this season which should be a concern for potential backers.

Perhaps Alex de Minaur can take advantage.

The Australian is enjoying the best claycourt season of his career, recently making the semis in Barcelona.

However, I’m struggling to get too enthused by odds of 13/2 given this is a player who is yet to play in an ATP final on clay, never mind win one.

At longer odds, FEDERICO CORIA is a clay specialist who may be worth a punt in a week when you can never really be truly confident about those towards the top end of the market (see above).

The Argentine made two quarter-finals during February’s Golden Swing on the South American clay and after heading across the Atlantic, he duly made the last four in Marrakech.

The Moroccan venue is notable for its altitude. Lyon isn’t so high but at 250m above sea level, there should be still be something for those who like the balls to fly a bit.

After some admittedly-poor results in the last few weeks, Coria should welcome that and he could be an awkward opening opponent for Carreno Busta, who has gone 1-2 since losing that Barcelona final. The pair have yet to meet.

Coria should certainly be giving his all this week – he’s one who can’t afford to be holding back for the looming French Open – and it’s worth noting that a good run here could take him into the world’s top 50 for the first time in his career.

A small each-way play at 33s looks the call.

Last year’s runner-up Cam Norrie is the man whose odds suggest he’ll reach the final from the top half.

However, he was nursing an ankle injury in Rome and looks a prime candidate for a withdrawal at some point this week if that’s still an issue.

Instead, it’s another Argentine I prefer to side with.

SEBASTIAN BAEZ beat Marin Cilic, Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Frances Tiafoe en route to the title in Estoril a few weeks ago.

His winning run had reached eight by the time he ran into world number three Alex Zverev in Rome last week and even that was a very close match, one which featured just a single break point.

Baez is another who has shown he likes a bit of altitude, having reached the Santiago final earlier this season, as well as the quarter-finals of Cordoba.

As many expected, Baez has started to convert his superb Challenger Tour form of 2021 to the main tour and this looks another decent opportunity at this level.

Odds of 8/1 look fair.

Published at 2150 BST on 15/05/22

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