Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament

1pt Andrey Rublev to win the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament at 8/1 (Unibet)

0.5pt e.w. Juan Ignacio Londero in the Argentina Open at 40/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Sebastian Baez in the Argentina Open at 25/1 (BetVictor)

2pts Taylor Fritz to win the Dallas Open at 9/2 (bet365)

1pt Maxime Cressy to win the Dallas Open at 17/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament

• Rotterdam, Netherlands (indoor hard)

Seven of the world’s top 20 will be in Rotterdam for this week’s big event on the ATP Tour.

Five of those are at 6/1 or shorter with Paddy Power and the chances of an outsider winning at a chunky price seem pretty small.

There haven’t been too many surprise winners of this 500-level event in recent years – Martin Klizan’s triumph in 2016 being the notable exception.

In the last three years, Gael Monfils has won twice but he’s withdrawn after last week’s horror show in Montpellier. The 2021 champion ANDREY RUBLEV does return though.

He’s among those at a single-figure price but the market is led by Stefanos Tsitsipas which is probably the right call by the layers.

The Greek once again shone in Australia, making the semi-finals for the third time in four years before losing in four sets to Daniil Medvedev.

Taking that extra step at Grand Slam level has proved a problem for Tsitsipas but at lower-level events such as this, he’s won seven times.

It’s notable that four of those seven titles have come indoors, although maybe not in conditions this slow – two of them were in Marseille where it’s very quick.

There were some player complaints about Rotterdam’s Proflex courts being too slow last year – from Alex Zverev but also semi-finalist Tsitsipas - and tournament director Richard Krajicek admitted at the time that “maybe we should see if we can make the court faster”. That said, he did describe conditions as average – three on the 1-5 court-speed scale.

One factor which probably made a difference in 2021 was the lack of fans, who create heat to increase speed, but there will be spectators in this week.

Qualifying so far suggests that while things maybe a bit faster, it’s certainly still far from quick.

That may help Rublev, another player who has a good record on indoor hard – four of his eight career titles have come in such conditions.

The slow courts didn’t bother him here last year and the other indoor venues where he’s succeeded also tend to play fairly slow – Moscow, St Petersburg and Vienna.

Rublev disappointed Down Under, losing in round three of the Australian Open to Marin Cilic.

That said, Cilic has shown some good form in the past eight months, while Rublev’s preparations were ruined by a COVID infection which meant he came in without any warm-up matches.

Here, the seeds he’s due to face before the final are Aslan Karatsev and Felix Auger-Aliassime.

He’s won both previous matches with FAA and while Karatsev is up 1-0 (winning in Dubai last year) he was poor in Pune last week and doesn’t have anything like the same record indoors as he does without a roof over his head.

Rublev basically looks a bit big to me at a best price of 8/1 and of the big guns, he’s the one I’m prepared to side with.

Both Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov hold claims but I remain worried by their lack of titles – just one between them which is really poor for players who have both been in the top 10.

FAA is 0-8 in finals, while Shapovalov still has only one title to his name (Stockholm 2019). Both played well in Melbourne but I feel they are short enough in a field of this quality.

The last of the five players I began with is Hubert Hurkacz.

He won indoors in the faster conditions of Metz last autumn but most recently flopped at the Australian Open, suffering a shock, straight-sets defeat to Adrian Mannarino.

That’s not the sort of sign I want ahead of backing someone at 15/2, especially when they may have to beat Shapovalov and Tsitsipas just to make the final.

In terms of those at bigger prices, it is possible to make cases for some.

In the top half, Alex de Minaur has started the year well, putting a miserable 2021 behind him and I gave him a good look at 22/1.

The problem is he’s got a 1-8 career record against potential quarter-final foe Tsitsipas so I reckon he’ll need an early favour.

Perhaps Botic van de Zandschulp (50/1) can star on home soil.

He beat Rublev en route to the semis in St Petersburg towards the end of last season but I’m not sure I really see him getting past Shapovalov, Hurkacz and Tsitsipas.

In the third quarter, Alexander Bublik could go well at 33/1 – his serve will cut through sluggish conditions. He served 69 aces as he rediscovered his form in Montpellier with a maiden title run.

He’s probably my best suggestion for those seeking longer odds but you have to wonder if fatigue will play a factor this week. And he’s not a player who’s been the most focused in the past.

Down in the final quarter, Filip Krajinovic (45/1) was another to enjoy better days in Montpellier. He performs best indoors and he made the semis here two years ago.

However, he’d probably want things a bit quicker so perhaps another home hope, Tallon Greikspoor, can step up at the same price.

He faces Karatsev first up before meeting the winner of Krajinovic v last year’s runner-up Marton Fucsovics.

Maybe one of these outsiders could make the final but I return to my original point that this is a strong field and it’s more than likely the winner will come from those at the head of the market.

I’ll take my shot with Rublev.

• CLICK HERE to back Rublev with Sky Bet

Argentina Open

• Buenos Aires, Argentina (outdoor clay)

The return – and potential retirement – of Juan Martin Del Potro is the big story surrounding this year’s Argentina Open.

The local hero hasn’t played since June 2019 at Queen’s Club, his injury-hit career suffering yet more woe.

But having battled back to a stage where he’s now able to compete, at least one more time, he surprised many at his pre-tournament press conference by admitting this could be the last event of his career.

The if, could, maybe aspect was somewhat confusing – all a bit Andy Murray in Australia in 2019 – but what was clear is that Del Potro is still struggling physically as he spoke of wanting the normal life of a 33-year-old.

If would be wonderful to see him go out in a blaze of glory and land the 40/1 on offer this week but it’s hard to make a logical argument about that happening after so long out.

He does crush the ball so can blow opponents away, although you have to remember these will be some of the slowest conditions on this year’s ATP Tour – we’re back down at sea level after last week’s trip to Cordoba and it will be harder to hit winners.

At least he does have experience of coming back from long absences but even when he ended an enforced break last time, returning to action at Delray Beach in 2016 after 11 months on the sidelines, he only made the last four. Other comeback events after months out injured have seen quarter-final and first-round losses.

Another player making a comeback from injury is top seed Casper Ruud, albeit his absence has been somewhat shorter.

The Norwegian missed the Australian Open after twisting his ankle which is the worry for punters here.

If fully fit, he looks a worthy favourite and if I knew for sure, I may well have played at 10/3.

Ruud won four claycourt titles at this 250 level last season, including three in as many weeks in the summer.

He’s a former champion in Buenos Aires, winning in 2020, while he’s also made the final in Santiago during this claycourt ‘Golden Swing’ in the past.

Ruud is a very good player on clay with many expecting him to challenge at the French Open one day.

However, it’s that nagging doubt about his ankle that’s the concern – maybe the best advice is to watch his first match before getting involved.

The player I’m actually going to take a chance on in the top half is JUAN IGNACIO LONDERO.

He caught the eye in Cordoba last week, having arrived there without a tour-level win in more than a year.

But that awful run very much looked a thing of the past as he made it through to the semi-finals before losing to our pick, Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

His serve worked particularly well and while the reduction in altitude will affect that shot, it should be remembered that Londero was a semi-finalist at this event in 2020.

Basically it looks like time away from the match court sorting out his game has gone well for the home hope and given what we saw last week, 40/1 looks to be underestimating his chances.

• CLICK HERE to back Londero with Sky Bet

Down in the bottom half, defending champion Diego Schwartzman is the man the layers expect to reach the final.

However, he’s pretty short at 9/2 here given how often he’s failed to deliver at such prices in his home country.

As mentioned in last week’s preview, he’s struggled as favourite in Argentina and another surprise loss followed in Cordoba with Schwartzman losing in the last four to qualifier Alejandro Tabilo.

He’s now won just one of 12 home events on the ATP Tour and while clearly he wasn’t favourite at many of the early ones, the most recent half would all have seen him go off at short prices.

There are plenty of solid clay sorts in his section this year, including Jaume Munar, Laslo Djere, Lorenzo Sonego and that man Ramos-Vinolas.

Sonego is too short for me at 9/1 after he struggled in Cordoba last week, while Ramos-Vinolas is now 34 and he may well be feeling it if he gets through to the business end here.

In his long career, the Spaniard has only ever reached back-to-back finals once. That was in the Alps in 2019. Many of his best results have come at altitude so conditions aren’t so favourable this week.

Djere, the winner at sea level in Rio in 2019, has potential at 30/1 but the man I’m going to side with is a player who looks to be going places, namely SEBASTIAN BAEZ.

He impressed on the Challenger Tour in 2021, winning no fewer than six claycourt tournaments, including five in South America.

One of those was in the Argentine capital and while it wasn’t at this venue, the Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis Club, it was literally across the road at the Racket Club. It’s fair to say conditions won’t have been dissimilar.

Here, he’s in the same quarter as Sonego and Ramos-Vinolas but this is a man who looks set for a breakthrough at this level soon.

Baez has notched the first top-50 wins of his career in the opening weeks of the season, defeating Ramos-Vinolas at the Australian Open before, more significantly, taking out a classy claycourter in Cristian Garin in Cordoba last week.

His run there ended in the quarter-finals at the hands of the red-hot Tabilo but I would not be surprised to see him go deep this week and will back him at 25/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Baez with Sky Bet

Dallas Open

• Dallas, USA (indoor hard)

We’ve got a new stop on the ATP Tour this week.

The Dallas Open has replaced the New York Open, which struggled to attract decent crowds during its three-year run. The owners have subsequently taken it south to Texas.

It remains an indoor hardcourt event and the court surface remains the same too – the contract with Laykold has continued with the same materials seemingly shipped to Dallas instead of NYC.

The courts played fast in New York and that trend can be expected to continue this week.

Indeed, the early signs from Sunday’s qualifying action suggest that’s the case, with some high numbers produced on serve.

The home players should therefore fancy their chances with top seed TAYLOR FRITZ understandably favourite.

He’s got a strong first delivery which should win him a lot of free points.

The 24-year-old shone during the second half of last season and has already built on that success in the first month of 2022, beating Cam Norrie and Felix Auger-Aliassime at the ATP Cup and then reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open before losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Those results have taken him into the world’s top 20 for the first time.

With a first-round bye and a draw which has kept some of the biggest threats out of his half, Fritz looks a decent price of 9/2.

He’ll open against Oscar Otte or Jack Sock before a potential quarter-final against Marcos Giron.

Jenson Brooksby in the man seeded to face Fritz in the last four but the impressive young talent will be playing his first tour-level match since October after seeing his start to 2022 ruined by COVID-19.

He has played at Challenger level in recent weeks but without great success and I think it’s asking too much of him to win here, especially at 9/1.

Fritz may have yet to win indoors on the ATP Tour but he does have two runner-up efforts and he looks a decent bet this week.

• CLICK HERE to back Fritz with Sky Bet

The bottom half is led by Reilly Opelka, a man who has won the New York Open back in 2019 so he should be happy to be playing on these courts again.

However, that remains Opelka’s only indoor title – he’s won one outdoors since – and I don’t think he’s had the best of the draw here.

I prefer MAXIME CRESSY at a bigger price.

A three-time winner on indoor hard at Challenger level, Cressy was a real breakout star in Australia where he won 11 of his 14 matches.

The French-born American was the runner-up in Melbourne in the opening week of the season as a qualifier, losing only to Rafael Nadal.

A quarter-final run in Sydney followed before a last-16 appearance at the Australian Open.

Notably he beat both John Isner and Reilly Opelka during his time Down Under, two players he could face again this week.

Isner, is a possible quarter-final foe, with Opelka potentially awaiting in the semis.

Like Opelka, Isner has a huge serve but while he’s sure to blast down plenty of aces, he’s long said that truly fast conditions aren’t the best for him in terms of his groundstrokes from the baseline, while despite all his years on tour, the 36-year-old has never won an indoor title. I doubt that will change this week.

Cressy’s propensity to play serve-volley tennis won him plenty of plaudits in Australia but, more importantly, plenty of matches.

These conditions should suit his style down to the ground and if he continues his form of 2022 so far, he should go close at 17/2.

• CLICK HERE to back Cressy with Sky Bet

For those seeking something bigger, Betfred’s 33/1 about Yoshihito Nishioka looks too big.

The Japanese has made the final of the Challenger tournaments in Columbus and Cleveland in the past fortnight, winning the former.

He’s clearly bedded into the indoor conditions and he’s always been a player who has performed at his best when it’s playing quick.

Nishioka’s one ATP crown came in Shenzhen, one of the faster outdoor hardcourt events, while he was a quarter-finalist at the Cincinnati Masters in 2019. Last season his best result was a quarter-final appearance indoors in Singapore.

The problem is he’s got a lot tennis in his legs heading into this week but if fatigue isn’t an issue, he can certainly outperform his odds and would be someone Opelka wouldn’t relish facing in the last eight.

Posted at 1645 GMT on 06/02/22

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