ATP FInals: Day two preview and tips, including Rafael Nadal v David Goffin

22:21 · MON November 13, 2017

Dominic Thiem v Grigor Dimitrov (1400 GMT, Sky Sports Arena & BBC Two)

Head-to-head record – Overall: 2-1; Indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 1-1 (GD won in Brisbane; DT in Madrid)

Thiem has again tailed off badly in the closing stages of the season and he arrives in London having won just two of his last seven matches.

The Austrian, who struggled here on debut last season, has played more tournaments than any other player in this field but insists he isn’t tired. Results suggest otherwise though and Dimitrov looks to have a good opportunity to get his campaign off to a strong start.

Having hired Andy Murray’s former coach Dani Vallverdu, the Bulgarian has enjoyed the best season of his career to date. He won on a fast court in Cincinnati back in the summer and should like the faster-than-before conditions on offer here.

Grigor Dimitrov: Takes on Thiem in his opening match

He was very relaxed when talking to the media on Friday and although he’s not added to his title tally since Cincy, he has been challenging at the right end of tournaments, unlike Thiem.

Dimitrov can throw down a marker as a possible dark horse in this tournament by winning in straight sets.

An interesting aside is that Thiem has out-aced Dimitrov in all three of their previous meetings, the winning margins being 3-3-2. However, they can’t be split in the market ahead of this match.

Verdict: Dimitrov to win 2-0

Best bet: Thiem to serve the most aces at 11/10

What the players say

Thiem: “He (Dimitrov) had a great season. The World Tour Finals needs him and he deserves it 100 per cent to be here.

“We had two very, very good matches this year and I’m hoping it’s going to be a third one on Monday.”

Dimitrov: “It’s so nice to be at the end of the year and to be able play the final rounds against talented, top players.

“I’m just looking after what’s my side of the net. I want to get out there and just play my game.

“It’s my first time out here. It will feel a lot different.”

Rafael Nadal v David Goffin (2000 GMT, Sky Sports Arena)

Head-to-head record – Overall: 2-0; Indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 2-0 (Monte Carlo & Madrid – both straight sets)

I’ve already written in my tournament preview about Nadal’s chances not being great. The state of his knee is certainly one reason – to be fair one which may turn out to be irrelevant – but his indoor record, even when fully fit, isn’t great for a player who has achieved so much. The faster speed of the court these days won’t help him either.

Whether Goffin can take advantage remains to be seen. He had a knee problem of his own recently, although he says he is ready to go.

He’s lost their two previous meetings, both were on clay and although that is Nadal’s favourite surface, it must be remembered Goffin prefers the red stuff too.

If Nadal is fit, I doubt he’ll have too many problems with Goffin, despite the Belgian having enjoyed a fine run of form during the final couple of months of the season.

He doesn’t have a major weapon with which to hurt the Spaniard, although I’d certainly be wary of Nadal’s fitness when looking at this one.

In the most aces sub-market, Nadal at 5/2 looks a spot of value. Neither man serves too many and the pacy conditions could aid the Spaniard, who will be able to use his lefty delivery well in the ad-court. He may also stand a bit further back on return, giving him more time to get something on the Goffin serve.

Verdict: Nadal to win 2-0

Best bet: Nadal to serve most aces at 5/2

What the players say

Goffin: “The key to playing Rafa is have some good rallies and to be aggressive against him and try to make him run a lot and we will see. I have nothing to lose.

David Goffin: Trying not to think about the Davis Cup final

David Goffin: Man with a plan to beat Nadal

“The rebound is lower on hardcourt indoors. He cannot slide on this surface. He’s more comfortable on clay.

“He can play higher, deeper. He’s really happy when he’s hitting the ball on clay – it’s not easy to take the ball really high.

“Here there’s no bad bounce, you can take the ball easier than on the other surface. You can hit more winners so I that’s what I will try against him.”