ATP Finals: Day six preview and tips, inc Dominic Thiem v David Goffin
Dominic Thiem v David Goffin (1400 GMT, Sky Sports Arena, BBC Two)
Head-to-head record – Overall: 3-6; Indoor hard: 1-1 (DT Marseille 15 (inj); DG Basel 14); 2017: 0-2 (Aus Open & Monte Carlo)
A 50-50 match according to the bookmakers with a semi-final spot up for grabs to the winner.
Goffin leads the head to head fairly convincingly – it moves out to 7-3 if you consider Challenger matches, too. On indoor hard, he won their only completed match, withdrawing injured from the other.
The Belgian likes to take the ball early and that should help him on this slick court.
Both have had dodgy patches in matches this week and Goffin will need to put the chastening experience of a heavy loss to Grigor Dimitrov firmly behind him.
However, playing an opponent whose game he knows inside out (the pair are regular practice partners), I’d edge towards Goffin being the man who progresses to a meeting with Roger Federer in the last four.
However, the double faults sub-market is one for punters to head to. The prices suggest there is little to split the pair but Goffin has served more in five of their last six matches (the other saw a draw) and has also served more (12-8) so far this week, particularly at pressure moments.
Verdict: Goffin to win 2-1
Best bet: Goffin to serve the most double faults at 6/5
What the players say
Thiem: “We had some big, important matches in the past. Also in the deep rounds of slams. This one's going to be another one. We know each other very well. He played a very good match here (v Nadal), one very bad match (v Dimitrov).
“He's taking the balls very early. He's giving me not much time. Especially on this little bit faster surface, it's tough for me. Yeah, so I try to be the first to hurt him and not the other way around.”
Goffin: “I know him really well. I practise really often with Dominic. I have already an idea with the tactics against him because I played so many times against him. We played a lot of good matches against each other. It's not going to be easy.”
Pablo Carreno Busta v Grigor Dimitrov (2000 GMT, Sky Sports Arena)
Head-to-head record – Overall: 2-2; Indoor hard: 0-1 (Paris 2015); 2017: 1-0 (French Open)
It’s another dead rubber on Friday night when group winner Dimitrov faces already-eliminated alternate Carreno Busta.
However, the difference with yesterday’s Federer v Cilic clash, which also had very little at stake, is that there will be no day off after it for Dimitrov.
He’ll be back on Saturday evening to play his semi-final against Jack Sock.
Therefore a lengthy match is certainly not in his best interests.
The Bulgarian has caught the eye, although David Goffin did not play well against him on Wednesday, while Dimitrov also made things harder than they needed to be when he met Dominic Thiem earlier in the week.
Carreno Busta did play well in patches against Thiem and if he starts well – and he’s had some success against Dimitrov in the past, albeit on slower surfaces – then an upset could be on the cards with his opponent perhaps not wanting to be drawn into a long contest given what lies ahead.
That makes an upset looks likely than many suggest.
Verdict: Carreno Busta to win 2-0
Best bet: Carreno Busta to win 2-0 at 7/1
What the players say
Dimitrov: “Now you're into the tournament, two matches under your belt. You slowly start to get out there. I'm looking forward.”
Doubles matches
Bob Bryan & Mike Bryan v Oliver Marach & Mate Pavic (1200 GMT, Sky Sports Arena)
Lukasz Kubot & Marcelo Melo v Jamie Murray & Bruno Soares (1745 GMT, Sky Sports Arena)
Briton Jamie Murray and partner Bruno Soares know they must beat the world’s top doubles team if they are to reach the semi-finals. A defeat ends their season.
If you are coming to The O2, it is worth noting the earlier start time to the evening session than the rest of the week – play will begin at 1745 GMT. This is due to TV considerations.
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