Six Nations betting tips: Italy can make fast start

Recommended bets: Six Nations

3pts Ireland (-7) v France at evens - key men back & look capable of winning this comfortably

1pt Italy to win 'race to 10 points' v England at 18/1 - capable of competing over short periods & history suggests price is too big

1pt Italy to score first try v England at 12/1 - see above

Ireland remain a fair price at 11/2 to win the Six Nations and they can underline why by beating France by more than seven points at the Aviva on Saturday.

It's always a bit dangerous playing at and around that handicap line now that a bonus point is awarded for teams staying within seven points - the spectre of that last-minute penalty always seems to loom large - but I think the real Ireland will stand up this weekend and cover it comfortably.

They certainly didn't turn up in the first 30, or the last 10 minutes, in their opening match at Scotland - that could well have ruled out what would have been a mouth-watering (or, probably more accurately, a mouth-splitting) Grand Slam decider in Dublin on March 18 - but they were back on their game against Italy a fortnight ago.

Granted, Ireland's under-21 side could probably have done a job on an Italian outfit that fell off tackles at will, and conceded four converted tries in the last 12 minutes en route to a pitiful 63-10 loss. But it was a good run-out, if nothing else, and I'm confident Ireland are now ready to run hot against a better side.

For starters, they have four influential players fit to play, if selected, with Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray, Rob Kearney and Andrew Trimble all ready to rock and roll.

The first three are key personnel, even if only off the bench in Sexton's case, and I expect to see an All Blacks-type performance.

Okay, everyone rightly points to their 40-29 defeat of New Zealand in Chicago in November as their finest hour, but I was equally impressed by their subsequent 21-9 loss to the same side at home, as no way were they a 12-point worse side that day. In fact, I thought they were pretty unlucky not to do the double.

Those performances showed that, at their best, they can play at a ferocious tempo that no other side in this tournament can match - even England - and that style of play could potentially overwhelm the French.

Now, France actually have a good recent record in Dublin and come here after showing a lot of power, direction and solidity against England and Scotland.

They will look to target the Irish at set-plays, but if the home side can get their fast, off-loading game going then I think they could easily win this by a double-digit margin. And, at this point, I really fancy Ireland to beat England next month, a fixture for which they are one-point underdogs with two firms.

We were against Wales, and with Scotland, in the pre-tournament preview and all was sitting pretty after the first round of fixtures.

Then Scotland's captain and goalkicker Greg Laidlaw went off injured after 25 minutes against France, and has subsequently been ruled out for the rest of the competition.

I can't overestimate what a blow that is to the Scots, and also having one of their main go-forward men in Josh Strauss ruled out compounded the misery.

To be fair, they did remarkably well to hold France to a six-point victory in Paris - particularly as we were on the away side with a seven-point start - and the most pleasing aspect was that they outscored the French by two tries to one and their defense was superb in the face of serial onslaughts.

However, given Laidlaw's injury, and Wales' excellent performance against England, it is no surprise to see Scotland as one-point underdogs on the general handicap line.

Wales really were very good in Cardiff last time, massively improved from their unconvincing Italy win, and they welcome back George North as well as being able to name a very strong bench which includes the likes of Luke Charteris, Taulupe Faletau and Jamie Roberts.

I was also shocked to discover that Wales are going for a 10th straight Six Nations defeat of Scotland - that's a proper 'wow' stat - so all in all I am not surprised that the away side are marginal favourites.

However, if Scotland gain parity up front - a fair if, granted, especially regarding their wobbly scrum in the absence of WP Nel - then I think they have the more incisive back-line.

I've no real betting opinion on the game now but one firm (Betfair Sportsbook) have dangled a carrot in offering 25/1 about the draw and that could be the way to go if you fancy an interest. I've already got an interest with my tournament bets, so I'll sit tight.

It is hard to believe that Italy have gone from being a side capable of leading Wales 7-3 at half-time to a side shipping 28 points in the final 12 minutes against Ireland the following week in an embarrassing 53-point loss.

So what England are expecting to do to them at Twickenham on Sunday afternoon is anyone's guess. Well, it isn't actually, as the majority of bookmakers have come up with a 42-point handicap line, though you can get two points either way if you shop around.

Italy have a history of backing up bad performances with even worse ones - when they fall apart, they really unravel - but they have made four changes from the Ireland match and they all look positives to me, especially the return of Michele Campagnaro at centre. I think most people at the start of the tournament would have named him as their best three-quarter.

I also like the fact that Conor O'Shea has not panicked and made only one change to the pack - hopefully they will replay his faith - and on paper it looks a pretty competitive eight.

So I am going to take a flier and suggest backing Italy at 18/1 with bet365 to win the 'race to 10 points' market.

Italy went 5-0 up at Twickenham in 2015 and had at least two good chances to at least double that lead before England finally took control in a 47-17 win, and in 2012 Italy turned around 12-6 up in this fixture.

And there are numerous examples of O'Shea's men hanging in there for 40 minutes before being blown away in the second half (they went in 14-13 down before losing 61-20 to Wales in 2015).

Indeed, they could have opted for a pot at goal at 7-3 up in the first half against Wales three weeks ago. And there are a few examples of them winning this market in recent years, notably against Scotland in 2014, and France and Ireland in 2013.

The 18/1 instinctively looks far too big - annoyingly we have just missed the 22/1, which went earlier this afternoon (no, it wasn't me) - as is Ladbrokes' 12/1 for Italy to score the first try. Back both, but of course the potential for England to demolish them is there for all see.

I also considered a punt on Italy with a 44-point start (10/11, Stan James) and that could be the way to go to if the unsettled weather forecast gets even more extreme come Sunday afternoon. So keep 'em peeled.

Posted at 1515 GMT on 22/02/17.