What Happens Next? Ante-post betting column

Football

The consensus is that this season’s Premier League is a Manchester-based two-horse race. That’s nearly right; unless something goes dramatically wrong at the Etihad, it’s a Manchester-based one-horse race.

And I’m not at all convinced that United are as well-placed to be the team to pounce on any City slip as the odds or, to be fair, the current table suggest.

"The table doesn’t lie," you’ll hear people say. After 38 games, this is true. After eight, it’s nonsense. United have clearly started the season well, as well in fact as anyone could reasonably expect a team to start. They have certainly improved on last season, when their struggles to dispatch weaker teams – especially at home – cost them dear.

But their first real test of the season against quality opposition produced a soporific goalless draw at Liverpool. Whether this was mission accomplished or opportunity missed depends on how you view a Liverpool side shorn of both Sadio Mane and Adam Lallana.

The impression you get is that this is a United side operating at or close to its limit. And yet they are only three points clear of a Spurs side with more scope for improvement.

'The Harry Kane team' are certainly blessed to have the league’s best striker, but as important – perhaps more important – is their magnificent defence. They have allowed only 14 shots on target in eight games. Since the start of the 2015/16 season they have conceded more than twice in a league game only once – the astonishing 5-1 capitulation at Newcastle on the closing day of that campaign.

They have five clean sheets in their eight games this season, and it means that Spurs are always in the game given the attacking talent they possess. They have shown a couple of times already this season how good they be when it clicks, at Everton and Huddersfield.

And in the last two seasons, they have been significantly better in the second half of the season than the first. In 2015/2016, Spurs really hit their straps in December with a run if nine wins in 11 games.

Last season, they hit form earlier and sustained it for longer. Spurs won 21 of their last 27 matches and while they were never able to reel in Chelsea they were miles clear of the rest.

With a Premier League Wembley win – however unconvincing – now under their belts, the 2/1 on offer that they overturn a three-point deficit over 30 games looks a touch generous. (Dave Tickner)

Back Tottenham to finish above Manchester United with Sky Bet

Racing

A perplexed Sir Michael Stoute was left scratching his head after Expert Eye’s Dewhurst Stakes flop on Saturday.

Sent off the 4/7 favourite on the back of two victories from two starts, including a very impressive Vintage Stakes romp, he didn’t beat a rival home at Newmarket at the weekend.

He was restless in the stalls and keen in the early stages, but that wasn’t reason alone for an insipid display that saw him find nothing for pressure and wilt as those ahead of him battled for the line. A clean scope afterwards revealed nothing, but this clearly wasn’t the Expert Eye that dazzled at Goodwood.

The Juddmonte-owned horse was the 7/2 favourite for next year’s 2000 Guineas pre-Dewhurst, but his defeat on Saturday saw him drift out to as big as 12/1, blowing the ante-post betting for the Classic into a state of disarray.

He’s generally 10/1 third-favourite now, with Aidan O’Brien’s top two juvenile colts disputing the position as market leader. Gustav Klimt, who performed an escapist’s act to somehow land the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July, is 6/1 favourite with some bookies and as big as 8s in places.

That horse, though, won’t be seen until next year after tearing a muscle, adding another layer to the idea that the Guineas betting is a bit of a muddy puddle. US Navy Flag, the winner of the Dewhurst, is generally 8/1, but as low as 5s which looks terribly short, even if he has just won back-to-back Group Ones.

The son of War Front only won one of his first seven starts, but a fruitful autumn campaign has seen him win three in a row including the Middle Park and the Dewhurst double on the Rowley Mile. It’s doubtful the Dewhurst form can be trusted, however, considering Expert Eye’s flop and the advantage US Navy Flag gained by racing prominently against the stands’ rail.

Perhaps Jim Bolger’s Verbal Dexterity, a 14/1 chance for the Guineas, will enhance his Classic credentials in the Racing Post Trophy or in France as the Flat season comes to an end. A dirty scope ruled him out of the Dewhurst, but Bolger hopes to run him again this season.

I’m still of the view, though, that Elarqam is underrated in the Guineas market. Flagged up in this column at 20/1 after his Tattersalls Stakes win on September 28, the 16/1 available now after Expert Eye’s disappointing run still looks very fair. There must be bags of improvement to come from him. (Ben Linfoot)

Back Elarqam for the 2000 Guineas with Sky Bet