View from Sha Tin: Werther a bet; Talismanic fancied
Mark Popham previews Sunday's action at Sha Tin, including the Hong Kong Cup and Highland Reel's rematch with Talismanic in the Vase.
6.00 - G1 Longines Hong Kong Vase (3y+) 1m 4f
Godolphin’s Talismanic, the Andre Fabre-trained horse who likes to stick his tongue out, and European record prize money earner Highland Reel are the two horses who stand out on ratings for the 12-furlong G1 Longines Hong Kong Vase, the first of four international races at Sha Tin Racecourse on Sunday, December 10.
They finished first and a close third in last month’s Breeders’ Cup Turf over the same distance at the tight Del Mar track, left-handed like all American courses, with both suited by the fast ground conditions that day.
Sha Tin is a more galloping track, plus being right-handed, but it would be no surprise if they dominate again as the ground, though likely to be called good, is set to be between firm and good to firm.
Highland Reel, who has an official rating of 123, has already proved his liking for the course, winning this race as a three-year-old in 2015 and arguably being unlucky last year after being taken on for the lead a long way out and then kicking for home at the start of the straight but only beaten half a length, with the others well in arrears.
Ryan Moore, usually a master at riding this track, might have chosen to do things slightly differently in hindsight. He is on board again and will be keen to see Highland Reel end a very distinguished racing career on a high. But the five-year-old Galileo horse has had tough races this year, often on unsuitably soft ground, and may find the up-and-coming TALISMANIC too strong again.
The key to Talismanic, by Medaglia d’Oro, is fast going and the 122-rated performer showed a potent turn of foot in America. He is without his regular rider Mickael Barzalona through suspension but stand-in Maxime Guyon was successful on the Fabre-trained Flintshire in the 2014 Hong Kong Vase.
The distinctive colt, with a white face and mostly white legs, has looked particularly relaxed in the mornings here in Hong Kong and been purposefully kept off the turf while training. His price is 4/1 against 5/2 for Highland Reel and he has to be the value of the two.
The Japanese have a couple of well-thought-of challengers: three-year-old Kiseki, who had ringworm on arriving in Hong Kong but has been passed fit to race, and five-year-old Tosen Basil. The latter, ridden by Hong Kong’s best jockey Joao Moreira, is the more likely prospect at the odds available.
Irish raider Max Dynamite and another French challenger Tiberian both ran well in the Melbourne Cup, but it is asking a lot of them to be effective over this four-furlong shorter trip.
British hopes Chemical Charge (trained by Ralph Beckett), Danehill Kodiac (Richard Hannon) and Smart Call (Sir Michael Stoute) all have something to find on form.
Just in case rational form analysis does not work out, I also consulted a clairvoyant about each of the races and her wand came down on the Willie Mullins-trained Max Dynamite.
6.40 - G1 Longines Hong Kong Sprint (3y+) 6f
Top local trainer John Size runs four, with Mr Stunning the clear favourite, but informed Hong Kong sources suggest there is little between these sprinters, with a slightly slow start or a bump or some interference set to make all the difference.
Mr Stunning won the G2 Jockey Club Sprint over this course and distance last time out, beating stable companions Amazing Kids and D B Pin by a length and a half and a short-head, while Size’s other runner Thewizardofoz finished fifth.
However, Size has a disappointing record in the four Hong Kong International races, gaining one win from 35 starts.
Lucky Bubbles, repeatedly blocked in the Jockey Club Sprint, may have problems getting room again from the inside stall one.
The Japanese-trained four-year-old filly ONCE IN A MOON likes to lead and has the canny Hong Kong regular Zac Purton in the saddle for the first time. She could get clear from stall two and cause a surprise at prices in the region of 20/1.
The clairvoyant’s pick is Amazing Kids.
7.50 - G1 Longines Hong Kong Mile (3y+) 1m
This is potentially another open race, with only 9lb between the top and bottom-rated horses.
Locally-trained runners have done best in recent years, though there was a Japanese-trained winner two years ago in Maurice.
The first three in the betting – Seasons Bloom (11/4), last year’s winner Beauty Only (6/1) and Helene Paragon (7/1) – are all based in Hong Kong.
Joao Moreira partners the Danny Shum-trained Seasons Bloom who is coming off victory in a G2 over the course and distance.
The improving five-year-old is liked by his pilot and they won the G2 Jockey Club Mile last time out, beating most of the opposition in this race, and could justify favouritism.
But much the best value is with French raider KARAR, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard, who broke slowly from the outside draw 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and did remarkably well to finish a running-on seventh.
The five-year-old Invincible Spirit gelding is a perfect each-way shot at as big as 33/1.
The two Aidan O’Brien-trained runners, Lancaster Bomber and Roly Poly, also ran in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, coming home second and 11th respectively, but their odds are not as appealing.
Contentment is the clairvoyant’s choice.
8.30 - G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup (3y+) 1m2f
The richest of the four Hong Kong International races may not produce the best performer of the day, but it should still be a good race.
The Japanese, triumphant for the last two years, have Neorealism, not suited by the soft going and returning from a break last time. The six-year-old entire, partnered by Joao Moreira, has a chance on his G1 Audemars Piguet QEII Cup victory in April over this course and distance. The Japanese are also represented by Staphanos and Smart Layer.
British runners Blond Me – the clairvoyant’s selection – and Robin Of Navan are likely to find the fast ground against them, while the same applies to French challenger Garlingari.
Poet’s Word, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and partnered by Andrea Atzeni, came second to Cracksman in the G1 QIPCO Champion Stakes and occupied the same position in the G1 Irish Champions Stakes. He could appreciate the fast turf and has looked well this week.
The Aidan O’Brien runners, Deauville and War Decree, have both shown some decent form, but would need to be at their very best to triumph.
Local champion WERTHER represents leading Hong Kong trainer John Moore and he considers the six-year-old the best of his day’s runners “by a furlong”.
Stable jockey Tommy Berry is equally upbeat and Werther warmed up for this race by winning the G2 Jockey Club Cup from Time Warp, who re-opposes.
Werther can take advantage of his home status and win at 2/1.
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