Aso: Worth backing
Aso: Worth backing

Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Kempton Newcastle Saturday tips


Ben Linfoot has four Value Bet selections for Saturday's racing, including Aso in the BetBright Chase at Kempton Park.

Recommended bets: Saturday racing


1pt win Aso in 3.35 Kempton at 16/1

1pt win Opening Batsman in 3.35 Kempton at 14/1

1pt win Alto Des Mottes in 2.45 Newcastle at 14/1

1pt win Streets Of Promise in 2.45 Newcastle at 20/1

It’s not a vintage renewal of the BetBright Chase at Kempton but it is competitive with a handful of horses likely to be vying for favouritism when the betting hots up on Saturday afternoon.

Double Shuffle and Irish Saint are currently locked in a battle for the honour of market leader, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Three Musketeers was challenging them at the top of the betting by the off.

He was really impressive when giving weight and a good beating to Kilcrea Vale at Market Rasen last time, improving for going right-handed and in first-time cheekpieces.

A 2lb rise for that effort wasn’t harsh at all and Dan Skelton’s in good form, so another bold bid is expected and I wouldn’t put anyone off him at the general 7/1.

The one problem I have with him is the potential for this to be a bit of a burn-up at the head of affairs. He’s likely to be prominent, as he was last time, and with Annacotty, Viva Steve, Theatre Guide and Double Shuffle possibles to be up there with him this could be run at a good clip.

With that in mind I think the 16/1 about Venetia Williams’ ASO is a price worth snapping up. 

He’s yet to run over three miles but shapes as though he’ll relish the step up in trip and his batch of form in the first part of the season is as strong as anything else in the race.

His fourth in the BetVictor Gold Cup and second in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham were excellent runs and his victory at Chepstow over the festive period was just reward for a consistent string of performances.

He couldn’t keep it going when a well beaten eighth back at Cheltenham on trials day at the end of January, but he lost a shoe that day and made a mistake late on which contributed to his 30-length defeat.

It’s worth remembering he was sent off 5/1 favourite for the race and I’m happy to forgive him one bad run considering he’d put in three very good performances prior to that.

The extra three furlongs could well eke out significant improvement and the Venetia Williams yard has been ticking along very nicely in the last few weeks (six winners from last 24 runners at 25 per cent). 

Perhaps he could do with a bit of rain, but I don’t think he’s the out-and-out mudlark he seems to have been categorised as and I’m happy to chance him under better conditions given he was beaten just a neck by Willow’s Saviour on similar ground as a novice chaser.

He’s worth backing and so is 2013 winner OPENING BATSMAN at 14/1.

Harry Fry’s horse is 11-years-old now and he might not have the legs for an assignment like this anymore, but he’s become very well handicapped and I thought there were plenty of positives about his last run here when fifth to Double Shuffle over Christmas.

He helped force a strong pace that day and he paid for it late on, but he had jumped with his old zest in the first half of the race and he could well improve on that run hugely if ridden with more restraint this weekend.

When he won this race off a mark of 140 he won with exaggerated waiting tactics and it was the same in last year’s renewal when he was a 10-length second to Theatre Guide off 141.

Off a mark of 133 on Saturday, with claimer Michael Legg taking off a further 5lb, he is a race specialist running off a very attractive weight and he has a 22lb pull with Theatre Guide on last year’s running.

With ground, track and trip absolutely ideal I can’t resist him at 14/1 to roll back the years.

Up at Newcastle it’s the Betfred Eider Chase and Henry Hogarth’s ALTO DES MOTTES looks a good bet at 14/1 to land the spoils.

This French-bred is related to Imposant who won over four-and-a-half miles in France and this horse shapes like he wants a severe test of stamina.

He was outpaced over three miles at Newcastle last time but stayed on well to win by eight lengths, even if he was aided by the fatal fall of Subtle Grey two from home.

Still, a 4lb rise for that win looks lenient, especially with the step up in trip in mind, and the heavy ground, which he’s proven on, can only aid his chance.

He’s two from two at the track and he has solid claims of landing the course hat-trick. 

I was happy to rely on him but with STREETS OF PROMISE trading at 20/1 I can’t resist splitting stakes on the Michael Scudamore-trained mare.

She’s taken off since going chasing and has won two of her last four starts over fences, including a 22-length success at Newcastle last season.

A half-sister to Jonjo O’Neill’s 3m6f winner Catching On, she should also relish this first go at four miles and she’s also proven on heavy ground.

Third to Kerry Lee’s Goodtoknow at Hereford last time, she was well beaten but that was her first start in over nine months and it’s reasonable to expect she’ll come on for that run.

Scudamore is a dab hand at preparing thorough stayers, as was advertised on Friday when he teamed up with Ben Poste to win the Devon National with Kingswell Theatre.

At 20/1, it’s worth chancing the duo can team up to winning effect again on Saturday.

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +397.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

Click here for full Value Bet record

*Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Value Bet column with guaranteed prices for at least 15 minutes from the time of publication (usually 5pm).

Posted at 1705 GMT on 24/02/17.


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