Our racing expert Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on day one of the Cesarewitch meeting at Newmarket.
Recommended Bets: Friday, October 11
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* Major Partnership declared a non-runner at 08:07 11/10/19
With eight live races on ITV4 on Friday from Newmarket, York and Chepstow punters are in for a real treat and the action is headed by what looks a good renewal of the bet365 Fillies' Mile.
1000 Guineas favourite Quadrilateral heads the betting here after her nine-length thumping of six rivals in a Newbury conditions event last time out, but there are two other unbeaten fillies in the line-up in the shape of Cayenne Pepper and Powerful Breeze.
Cayenne Pepper is from the all-conquering Jessica Harrington yard, a stable that is going for their third Group One with a juvenile filly in the space of 13 days thanks to the exploits of Millisle and Albigna.
Her presence would put me off wading into Quadrilateral at relatively short prices, while Powerful Breeze isn’t out of it either on the back of her May Hill success at Doncaster.
It looks a contest to watch and enjoy, but the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap just over half an hour later is one to have a go at with likely favourite First In Line looking vulnerable after his disappointing effort at Haydock last time out.
Trueshan beat him nine lengths that day and is well worth considering here, but at a bigger price it’s Stuart Williams’ RHYTHMIC INTENT that looks underestimated at 14/1 (General).
The Williams stable remains in really good nick after an excellent September and this horse can resume his upward curve now he faces a bit of cut in the ground.
Really impressive when winning a Newbury maiden (on soft) by four lengths two starts ago, from a subsequent winner in Arabist, he looked a horse to follow over a mile-and-a-half but was beaten into sixth in a good handicap at Ascot last time out.
However, he was only beaten three lengths, was given far too much to do and was hampered when making his challenge, as well, while the good to firm ground probably didn’t play to his strengths.
He's well worth another go now he encounters a bit of cut again, even in another hot race, as I'm firmly of the opinion he’s going to end up much better than an 84-rated horse.
Over at York there’s a couple of handicaps on ITV4 and I think it’s worth a speculative punt on Saeed bin Suroor’s MAJOR PARTNERSHIP at 14/1 (General) in the Racebets Money Back 2nd 3rd 4th Handicap over a mile at 2.40.
Bin Suroor is in great form, his yard ticking along at a 41 per cent strike-rate for the last fortnight, and this horse is easily forgiven his first run for five months over six furlongs at Ascot last time out.
He’s shown he has the pace for six in the past, but he’s more of a miler on pedigree and being thrown into a hot six furlong contest on his first run for 161 days was asking too much.
Still, he showed up well for a long way, only weakening late on, and, given his last win came over a mile, at Meydan off a mark of 98 at the carnival, he’s of interest down a couple of pounds and back up in trip.
His pace can be a lethal asset over a mile, as he showed when he won in Dubai. He tanked along just off the leaders that day, which allowed him to get home in front despite taking a fairly wide trip.
That was a good race, too, with stablemate Bedouin’s Story back in the field, and he’s proven himself when there’s a bit of cut in the ground thanks to his efforts at Thirsk and Newmarket on good to soft last August.
Hector Crouch takes the ride, a jockey with a 30 per cent strike-rate for bin Suroor, and though this horse does have plenty to prove when looking at his last two runs in isolation, he remains extremely lightly-raced and has shaped on a few occasions like a potential group horse.
Posted at 1700 BST on 10/10/19
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +347.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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