Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections on Weatherbys Super Sprint day at Newbury, with two taken against the field in the feature race.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Saturday July 21
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The Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury offers a different type of puzzle to what we’re accustomed to on a Saturday with sales prices determining the weights and it’s no surprise the same names crop up time and time again on the roll of honour.
Richard Hannon senior, who helped devise the concept, won the race seven times, Tim Easterby has won it three times and so has Richard Fahey – who is going for his fourth win in the race in the last six years.
The common theme with those trainers is their eye for a bargain and Fahey runs six this time as he bids to pilfer the lion’s share of the significant prizemoney on offer just as he did 12 months ago.
Red Balloons is the stable first string this time around and she deserves to be prominent in the betting following a taking win at Nottingham last time, but at a much bigger price I’d rather back stablemate GOOD TYNE GIRL at 28/1 (General).
Her best form is just as good as Red Balloons’ as she won really nicely on the fastest ground she’s encountered when winning her maiden at Leicester in May and she wasn’t seen to best effect in the Hilary Needler at Beverley last time.
Drawn in one that day, she had a messy start and failed to take advantage of her preferable berth, but ran well up the inside in the circumstances and was only beaten a couple of lengths at the line.
She’s better than that and can prove it here from her middle stall which looks the place to be judging by past history in this race and where the pace is this year.
The only horse to win up the stands’ side in this in the last 10 years was Tim Easterby’s Body And Soul on heavy ground and the pace forcers this year (Vena D’Amore, Aloysius Lilius and Diamonique) are drawn middle to far side.
It should be easy enough for Cam Hardie to ensure Good Tyne Girl gets plenty of cover and if she does get a nice tow into things she has the talent off her low weight to have a big say at a nice price.
Fillies have a fine record in the contest having won 15 of the 26 renewals with their 5lb sex allowance and they cover over half the field with 13 representatives this year.
Good Tyne Girl is obviously one of those and so is Richard Spencer’s COOKUPASTORM who is also worth backing at 22/1 (Coral, 20s General).
Spencer’s horses are in really good form and his two-year-olds look a good bunch, winning five races at a 25 per cent strike-rate between them for the campaign.
Cookupastorm is one of those after winning at Newbury on July 12, where she kicked on after setting a slow pace over six furlongs under Martin Dwyer.
That bodes well for her dropping back in trip, though, and she looks to be drawn on the right side in eight with plenty of early pace around her.
Slightly keen in the early stages last time, it’s likely she’ll settle better over this trip off a quicker tempo and she’s another filly running off a low weight that looks underestimated by the market.
Earlier on the card betting opportunities look thin on the ground but I can’t resist backing John Gosden’s ALMOGHARED at 15/2 (Ladbrokes, 7/1 General) in the inaugural JLT Cup (2.25).
Gosden took full advantage of the weight-for-age scale for stayers with Stradivarius in last year’s Goodwood Cup and he’s three from six when running three-year-olds against their elders in handicaps over two miles.
A much wider spread of data reveals Gosden has 108 wins from 651 runners at almost 17 per cent with three-year-olds against their elders in handicaps, but, whichever way you look at the numbers, it’s hard not to be seduced by Almoghared getting 15lb from the older horses on Saturday.
The most lightly-raced runner in the field after just three starts and open to all sorts of improvement, Almoghared stayed on nicely over 1m6f when fourth in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot when shaping as though two miles would see him in an even better light.
A half-brother to Oaks and King George winner Taghrooda, he already looks better than a handicapper but he gets in this off bottom weight thanks to that generous weight-for-age scale.
Andrea Atzeni takes the ride off one of the lowest weights he can do and though Withhold’s owner Tony Bloom could have another nice stayer on his hands in the shape of favourite Stratum, I’d rather back Almoghared at a bigger price in receipt of 6lb.
Posted at 1700 BST on 20/07/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +346.34pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).