Timeform big race preview: Wembley the one to cheer on in Vertem Futurity

The top-rated

Wembley (Timeform weight-adjusted rating: 133)

Wembley sets the clear standard after finishing runner-up in the National Stakes and Dewhurst Stakes and this looks a good opportunity for him to register a first Group 1 success. It took Wembley four attempts and a trip to Roscommon before he got off the mark, but it’s difficult to knock his two recent efforts at the highest level. He did some excellent late work in the National Stakes, powering down the outside to grab second close home, and he was again strong in the finish at Newmarket, keeping on nicely having come off the bridle at halfway. That evidence, allied with clues from his pedigree, suggests he will relish this step up to a mile, but he probably won’t have to improve to win this, such a good standard does he set. No horse in the last ten years has achieved a higher rating in the Futurity Trophy than the one Wembley has already earned.

The Improver

King Vega (111p)

Four runners in this contest have the Timeform ‘p’ attached to their rating, indicating that improvement is still expected. Arguably the least exposed of them is King Vega, who remains a maiden after two starts but has shown himself to be a smart prospect and caught the eye when runner-up in the Solario Stakes over seven furlongs at Sandown in August. King Vega made good late headway to take second without being able to seriously threaten the speedier winner and he should be well suited by stepping up to a mile here. He has plenty to find on ratings – Wembley has shown form 22 lb superior – but it is difficult to rule him out given the untapped potential. He represents Andrew Balding, who won this race last year with Kameko.

The Timeform Flag

One Ruler (Hot Trainer)

Charlie Appleby sent out five winners from eight runners on Wednesday and only one of his last 15 representatives has finished out of the frame, so it's fair to say that his string is in good form. Appleby relies on One Ruler, who created an excellent impression when winning a Sandown maiden in a good time and put a defeat at Doncaster firmly behind him when landing the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket two weeks ago. One Ruler impressed with how strongly he travelled at Newmarket and he thoroughly saw out the mile to win with a bit in hand. Only Wembley has run to a higher level so he is clearly entitled to respect.

Verdict

There are some promising, unexposed juveniles in this contest but they will all need to improve significantly to challenge an on-song Wembley. He failed to meet expectations early in his career but he has been much improved of late and the form he has shown to finish runner-up in Group 1 company the last twice is much the best on offer. The step up to a mile is in his favour and he can provide trainer Aidan O’Brien with a tenth success in this race.

Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings

133 Wembley
126p One Ruler
124 State of Rest
121 Mac Swiney
118 Cobh
116p Megallan