David Massey provides Thursday's expert insight, including two selections on the first day of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket.
1pt win Eileendover in 3.20 Newmarket at 6/1 (General)
0.5pts win Torcello in 3.55 Newmarket at 12/1 (General) - minimum 11/1
A race we like the shape of, as one or two of those that are among the best-rated horses aren’t certain to want two miles. It’s clear enough why they are having a go, as they take on lesser-rated rivals, but it means there ought to be a bit of value elsewhere in the race.
EILEENDOVER is possibly better known for her bumper exploits last year, with three easy wins that saw here go off an even money favourite for Aintree’s Grade 2 bumper at their Grand National meeting, but she’s been running well on the Flat this summer and lost little in defeat to easy winner Free Wind at Doncaster last time.
Getting the 4yo and mares weight allowances here means she’s very little, if anything, to find on form to be competitive and the step up to two miles looks sure to suit.
TORCELLO was a ready winner on the July course here in May, making all and finding plenty in the latter stages, and after a disappointing effort at York last time we expect him to bounce back and score again.
He has, since that below par effort, run perfectly well over hurdles anyway, and York merely looks nothing more than an off day. Wind back to 2017 and you’ll find Oisin Murphy winning this on Torcello (for then trainer Andrew Balding) and we can see history repeating itself, with Oisin booked to take the ride once again.
A tricky little sprint to try and solve, but the supposed favoured inside draw bias (which hasn’t been quite as evident this season, in any case) may well be negated here in any case, with those drawn in stalls 1, 2 and 3 all likely to be off the pace early, whereas a few drawn middle and high are likely to come across and take their ground.
That means those drawn low are probably going to have to trust to luck in the straight and hope the gaps come for them.
Bossipop hasn’t shown much in recent starts but does like it here, with two wins and three places from six starts, and there are reasons for thinking a better effort might be forthcoming today. He’s basically been a bit high in the handicap after his win here in May but he’s now a pound lower than that mark and it’s worth noting he’s also entered up twice at Ripon this Saturday, including a 0-105 where he needs a penalty to get him into the weights proper.
Stall 8 today can be viewed in a positive rather than a negative light, as he’s sure to get a run out wide as those drawn middle move over towards the rail, and that gives him the chance to lead, which he’s not done on any of his last three starts (and hasn’t shown his form as a result). Worth chancing to bounce back today if the price is right (he's drifting, but not yet to the price we'd like - there's a discrepancy between the exchange and online prices so he may yet continue to drift to 12s and bigger, which is where we'd play).
Published at 0925 BST on 23/09/21
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