Saturday racing tips: Best value bets for York and Newmarket on October 9
Value Bet tips: Friday, October 9
1pt win Aleas in 2.37 York at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Snash in 3.15 York at 28/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Let Me Be in 3.35 Newmarket at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Fantasy season to continue in Cesarewitch?
LET ME BE's incredible 2021 campaign might have one final remarkable twist on Saturday as the five-year-old bids for an eighth victory of the calendar year in Newmarket's lucrative Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap.
A dual bumper winner in his youth, the son of Gale Force Ten endured a pretty miserable time of things last year, barely troubling the judge in eight outings across both codes. However, he consequently returned to the Flat rated just 50 this spring and set about climbing the ranks to a current perch of 84 (effectively races off 87 this weekend under a 4lb penalty, having been on 83 when the weights were published).
This has clearly been a dream year for the gelding – one nobody could have predicted – but if you look at the pedigree, he's from a very good family and his dam's half-brother, Dubawi Fifty, also climbed 30lb in the BHA scale before finishing second in both the Ascot Stakes and the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.
Dubawi Fifty was, incidentally, ninth in Stratum’s Cesarewitch in 2019, so perhaps Let Me Be’s rise to this kind of level shouldn’t come as quite so much of a shock, and the way in which he won at Ayr late last month, when looking typically outpaced before coming through to ultimately win going away – another career best effort according to Timeform – suggests he's anything but a spent force just yet.
That win came on the back of quite an encouraging comeback third in a four-runner race earlier in the month, having been given a short, 54-day break following a low-key run at Musselburgh at the end of July, and it’s not inconceivable he could kick on again now.
That’s obviously going to have to be the case, taking on so many high-class stayers including Nicky Henderson's top hurdler Buzz and six trained by Willie Mullins, who has won the last three renewals of the race, but the wildly progressive Dalgleish horse is a massive price as a consequence, and he looks a fine spare for James Sullivan with regular rider Cal Rodriguez up at York as he unfortunately can’t do the weight.
Stall 12 shouldn’t pose any problems for Sullivan and a searching gallop in this huge field over a marathon trip (he clearly loves nothing better than passing tiring horses) could just spark the extra improvement to see Let Me Be spring a surprise. I certainly have no fears over him handling the track having thrived at other undulating courses like Pontefract, Ripon and Catterick throughout the campaign.
Shadow not to be dismissed in Dewhurst
The Darley Dewhurst Stakes is never simply there for the taking and Native Trail has to bring his A-game again after seemingly taking a big step forward in bare form terms when slamming Point Lonsdale in the National Stakes.
There’s always a chance Point Lonsdale was a shade over-rated going into the Curragh, and it has to be said the form has had a bit of a kicking since. You can’t be scared of one horse if having a bet in these Group One juvenile races and I was all for chancing Berkshire Shadow at a price back up in trip, but he’s returning from 50 days away with a first-time tongue-tie which has put me off a bit.
I’m even less inclined to take on Coroebus in the Emirates Autumn Stakes, especially with the early 10/1 about Aidan O'Brien's United Nations all dried up, so I’ll switch attentions to York where a couple appeal at the prices.
Beckett ace can beat returning Bridge
On the subject of not running scared of one horse, I’m really keen to oppose Bay Bridge in the Play Coral Racing-Super-Series For Free Handicap. Not because I don’t feel he’s most likely the best horse at the weights, rather that he reportedly had a foot problem which has kept him away from the track since his London Gold Cup win at Newbury in mid-May.
That’s often a ferociously hot handicap, won by the odd subsequent Group-race winner through the years, but this year’s edition hasn’t worked out too well, the beaten runners just 3-22 since.
Bay Bridge was hammered by the assessor for that four-length defeat of King Frankel and must be taken on off a 15lb higher mark here, fellow three-year-old ALEAS looking the one to be on.
He’s not been seen in handicap company since making an absolute mockery of a mark of 86 on heavy going at Haydock in May and while a full 17lb higher at present, he did win a Listed race three starts back, always doing enough to narrowly see off Title, who won a Doncaster handicap by four and quarter lengths off 103 at the Leger meeting on his next start.
Title is now rated 108 so I’ve no issues with Aleas’ current mark and it was good to see him show a bit more spark again behind Teona at Windsor, having looked anything but glorious in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.
His form figures over a mile read 2111 so cutting back from the extended 11 furlongs last time to a mile and a quarter looks a good move and if there’s still enough juice in the ground, it will be right up the son of Archipenko's street.
Snash selected to land York cash
Betting in York sprints at this time of year can evoke a strong sense of déjà vu as most of the protagonists have been knocking heads all season long, but there is some interesting 'fresh blood' in the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap, including really well-backed Laugh A Minute for Ado McGuinness and Ronan Whelan, who are bound to be on a high after winning last Sunday's Prix de l'Abbaye with A Case Of You.
Laugh A Minute, formerly trained by Roger Varian, was an almighty eyecatcher when denied a run close home in a warm race at the Curragh last month and he gets to run off the same mark (92) here, which is a stone below his peak rating.
Fellow Irish challenger Verhoyen isn't far off Listed level at his best either and together they look quite dangerous but I'm going to take a flier on another relative 'newbie' to this scene in SNASH.
He's only had five starts in his life and is 2-3 over six furlongs, the heavy defeats both coming over seven furlongs. His most recent outing - when returning from 206 days off - was one of the lesser efforts and Neil Callan basically eased him right down after he was badly hampered two out, though the horse did admittedly appear to be weakening at the time.
That race looked really good at the time and it's already working out, the third home Al Suhail bolting up at Newmarket on Friday after fifth With Thanks won a Listed race at Ascot last weekend. The seventh home, Symbolize, was second in the Challenge Cup on the same Ascot card too so I can forgive Snash who was clearly up against it.
The son of Markaz is probably better judged on his February Newcastle win over Zamaani, when he had the look of a horse bound for pattern class. Zamaani might not be a winning machine but he was running to 105 on the all-weather last winter so you can see why the official handicapper wants to see a bit more of Snash before dropping him from 98.
The first run back, having been gelded over the summer, is going to need to sharpen him up significantly but Hills knows the time of day with this kind of horse who is the one being most overlooked in the betting.
Published at 1600 on 08/10/21
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