Our daily duo of Rory Delargy and David Massey nailed a 10/1 Newmarket winner yesterday - don't miss today's preview and tips.
1pt e.w. Abate in 1.50 Newmarket at 10/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - min 9/1
1pt e.w. Lallygag in 2.05 Cheltenham at 11/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - min 9/1
0.5pts e.w. Moon D’Orange in 3.50 Cheltenham at 9/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) – min 8/1
0.5pts e.w. Castel Gandolfo in 5.00 Cheltenham at 12/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) – min 10/1
I’m getting a massive sense of déjà vu here...
Track favouring front runners? Check. Adrian Nicholls-trained speedball? Check. Mia Nicholls on board? Check. Selection coming off a break but has won after an absence before? Check.
Well, hello, ABATE.
The stable is now three from five in turf handicaps this season, with two of those on seasonal return, and three from eight overall in handicaps at Newmarket, and Abate himself has been first and second in two course runs for trainer and jockey.
Abate has course form figures reading 15121, winning his only start on the Rowley Mile on his penultimate start and he ended last season looking better than ever. This is a tougher task than he’s faced in previous Newmarket runs, but now is clearly the time to back him.
Good ground is likely to be the order of the day at Cheltenham, and that makes formbook reading both tricky but potentially lucrative for the cognoscenti.
This handicap hurdle looks absolutely wide open, but I have a feeling it will see a revival in form from LALLYGAG, who hasn’t achieved much this season, but has had genuine excuses and is capable of springing a surprise on ground he needs.
The selection was an excellent third in this race last year behind Willaston and Bold Endeavour, both of whom are around 7lb higher in the weights now, but after a hit-and-miss season, the son of It’s Gino has dropped 4lb in the ratings.
To be honest, he shaped as if retaining all his ability here on his return, just looking to need the run, and he has not taken to chasing, with the plug pulled after two discouraging runs. He had a confidence booster on ground much too soft for him at Taunton in February. The ground has been against him since but is now coming in his favour and with the handicapper easing his burden, he looks one to take seriously at a track and trip that clearly suit.
Cases can be made for so many of these but MOON D'ORANGE looks nicely treated on his defeat of Emailandy at Market Rasen last time, that over a trip probably short of his best, so he’s taken to win again on second start for the Fergal O’Brien yard.
He moved very well at Rasen and with that in mind this better ground ought to suit, and with Emailandy going on to finish third in the ever-competitive EBF Final at Sandown before dotting up at Plumpton last time, the 3lb rise for that win looks more than fair.
An ultra-tricky handicap hurdle to finish off with, and you can find reasons to back plenty of these, but CASTEL GANDOLFO looks nailed-on to run his race again and should be up to reward each-way backers given his fine record here on good ground.
Three runs at Cheltenham on good ground have seen Castel Gandolfo finish second of 18, fourth of 18 and fourth of 15 and he warmed up for this with a run around Wolverhampton (without his usual blinkers, back on today) a couple of weeks ago.
Now 2lb lower than when fourth to Our Champ here in October, expect to see him picking them off from the home turn and if they do go a shade quick, as can often happen in these conditionals races, he might just be able to force his grey nose in front.
Posted at 0940 BST on 17/04/24
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