Newmarket Saturday preview: The Ballydoyle dark horses
By David Ord
08:43 · WED September 22, 2021
The big guns for the big Newmarket juvenile races on Saturday are trained elsewhere, but does Aidan O'Brien have the dark horses to crash the party?
It’s been far from a disastrous season for Aidan O’Brien, St Mark’s Basilica and Snowfall - prior to the Vermeille at least - have seen to that.
Santa Barbara has been rejuvenated on her American campaign to show the hyperbole of spring wasn’t that far off the mark too.
But it hasn’t been the usual glut of big-race winners for the master of Ballydoyle. The three-year-old colts, bar the one exception, have proved thinner than usual and one or two alarm bells are starting to sound regarding the juvenile division.
Point Lonsdale headed the market for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas and Cazoo Derby until finding Native Trail had a gear too many for him in the National Stakes. He could of course bounce back, and let’s not forget at this time last year Snowfall was doing a very convincing impression of being a Group Three filly, but it still represented merely a bump in the road.
Hope springs eternal and there’s still time for more compelling Classic candidates to emerge.
On Saturday, Newmarket stage three significant races for juveniles and while the headline acts are trained elsewhere, O'Brien has left in some dark horse who should be on our radar – and in our trackers.
He’s won two of the last three renewals but on the face of it the prize is unlikely to be heading back to County Tipperary this time around. Acomb winner Royal Patronage and Superlative Stakes second Masekela set the form standard but BLUEGRASS and LUXEMBOURG are still lurking among the six-day entries.
The former has a lot to live up to, being by the late, great, Galileo out of Quiet Reflection. We’ve seen over the years what can happen when speed and that behemoth of a stallion collide and it took this colt two runs to open his account.
He did it nicely at the Curragh too, finding plenty when challenged inside the final furlong to win by a length-and-a-half. That was over this trip so he's not going to fail for stamina and while his weight-adjusted Timeform rating of 104p leaves him with fully 17 pounds to find with the York winner, there's more to come.
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Luxembourg cost 150,000 guineas and the son of Camelot is one from one. His debut came over a mile at Killarney in July so clearly staying was already thought to be his forte. So it proved and he did well to overcome greenness and being forced wide two out to win, going away, from a previous winner in Tuwaig.
The form isn’t anything out of the ordinary but he made a striking visual impression that day and if he rolled into town at the weekend he too should be watched with interest. He has an identical Timeform rating to his stablemate at this stage.
Just the one Ballydoyle entry in this but arguably O’Brien's most exciting of the weekend. TENEBRISM is the filly in question and just look at the pedigree, by Caravaggio out of Coronation Stakes and Prix Jacques Le Marois heroine Immortal Verse.
Two of her previous three foals were winners and the 2021 model wasted no time in adding her name to the roll of honour with a sparkling success at Naas. Now that was back in March – when all thoughts were on Royal Ascot and the autumn Group Ones seemed a lifetime away.
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Clearly it hasn't been plain sailing since but the fact she stands her ground here is encouraging – as was the way she overcame greenness and heavy ground to run away from her rivals in the last of the five furlongs on debut.
There are any number of questions to answer on Saturday - the break, the ground, the step up in class. But the most exciting of all is 'just how good are you?' The early signs were she might just live up to that pedigree.
This looks a good renewal of the Group One – all the best sprinting colts, who have shown a knack for beating each other all season, are in there. Prix Morny winner Perfect Power (127p) just about sets the standard but as Timeform ratings show Ebro River (127), Lusail (126), Go Bears Go (125) and Dr Zemp (124) are all breathing down his neck.
O’Brien has three in there, HMS Endeavour, who has won his last two, the maiden New York City and GLOUNTHAUNE. He’s the one. You’ll have read this before he looked Royal Ascot material in the spring when making a winning start – in his case at the Curragh.
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It’s no surprise he was ready early – and quick. He’s a 350,000 guineas son of Kodiac out of a well-related dam. He showed a good attitude too, fending off the challenge of the experienced, and subsequent Group Three winner Castle Star, by a neck.
Again, there have clearly been issues but it was a taking start and one that suggested he could climb a rung or two up the ladder. He’s bidding to reach the top of it on Saturday in one giant leap. It might be a case of too much too soon but it’s good to see him back.
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