Lydia Hislop's Cheltenham Festival day four preview, tips and selections
Lydia Hislop goes through the Cheltenham Gold Cup day racecard with a fine tooth comb and she's sticking with King George hero Might Bite in the big one.
JCB Triumph Hurdle
Prior to the advent of the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, the kind of juvenile you needed to navigate near 30-strong fields was usually an ex-Flat horse, hardened by the battle and accustomed to the hustle. These days, with around only half that number of runners lining up, less experienced jumps-bred types have gained a firm foothold.
This year's race has attracted just nine starters – the first single-figure field assembled since Blarney Beacon beat six rivals in the 1965 Triumph. They're a relatively mixed bunch, with all bar two having some Flat experience.
One of those two is long-term favourite Apple's Shakira, who’'l be looking to avenge the family honour after elder full sister Apple's Jade was surprisingly turned over in the OLBG David Nicholson (subsequently reported in season).
Both trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey Barry Geraghty have always clearly held her in high regard but were keen to get her plenty of racing experience; a small field will alleviate any lingering concerns they might have.
She got what John Quinn, the trainer of the runner-up, yesterday called “a mini-fright” when Look My Way briefly outpaced her over this trip and course in January. That horse was eighth in Wednesday's Fred Winter, outpaced (caveat: after getting hampered early, losing his rhythm and getting a shade lit up) when the race developed and then staying on.
That such a stayer managed to provoke a flat spot from Apple's Shakira says she could be vulnerable to a rival with more wellie but she does have a strong finish and will benefit from an uninterrupted season of learning. But getting down to brass tacks, much like Getabird on Day One, she’s too short for the number of rivals she faces with a smart standard of form.
Redicean showed the benefits of intensive schooling when winning for the third time at Kempton last month, this time bagging the Grade Two Adonis. Yet I also wonder whether his improved technique was also partly inspired by encountering a sound surface for the first time over hurdles. He shouldn't want for stamina, however, having stayed up to 14 furlongs in ten Flat starts.
Sussex Ranger has run just as often on the Flat, most recently about three weeks ago at Kempton where he was unsurprisingly unsuited by an emphasis on speed. The Finale runner-up has taken well to hurdles and will need to have a lot of use made of him here by Jamie Moore, who also expressed a doubt earlier this season about whether Cheltenham would suit his horse.
Willie Mullins fields a team of four in an attempt to win this race for the first time since Scolardy triumphed in 2002, albeit he’s hit the crossbar a few times since and especially in the last couple of years.
Mr Adjudicator is the most grizzled of these, having raced 12 times on the Flat in Ireland, ultimately staying up 12 furlongs after an early career that spoke of some errancy: unruly and unseating his rider on the way to post once, at least twice blindfolded to enter the stalls and twice wearing different forms of headgear. He may well have grown up a lot since, given Mullins was last time able to remove the hood he'd applied on debut.
In Leopardstown's Grade One Spring Hurdle, hoodless Mr Adjudicator got the better of Farclas in a hearty duel and in a time that would eclipse impressive Ballymore winner Samcro (admittedly hostage to a steadily run race) over the same trip and track that same day.
Farclas, who ran four times on the Flat in France and stayed 12 furlongs, wasn’t easily subdued. Although he’s still a maiden over hurdles after two starts, I suspect he’ll turn around that form in a first-time tongue-tie and over a course more likely to play to his stamina reserves.
Before sadly exiting the Festival due to injury on Wednesday, Mullins’ stable jockey Ruby Walsh had significantly selected the filly Stormy Ireland as his Triumph vehicle. This also spoke reassuringly of her well-being, given she’d missed joining her stablemate in the Spring Hurdle due to “a dirty nose”.
Mullins erred on the side of caution with this forward-going filly because her run style does not permit her an easy race. She went hard when making all on her sole Irish start at Fairyhouse, jumping notably well and probably beating little of note but nonetheless clocking a good time when doing so. Her trainer has called the performance “awesome”.
In theory, she’s got competition for the lead here from Sussex Ranger and perhaps the tough but overly eager Gumball. He’s held by Apple’s Shakira on their encounter in November but is better than his latest Huntingdon second when asked to press on too far out – Style De Garde did the same thing yet finished second in yesterday’s Fred Winter off a mark of 137.
In practice, I suspect Stormy Ireland has too much essential pace for Sussex Ranger, on whom I suspect Moore will opt to chase the lead (and may stay on at a big price for a place) and too much unflappability for Gumball. Yet to side with her alone with this background worry is enough to make me add Farclas to my betting mix.
Mullins' two remaining charges are fascinating contenders. Saldier won his sole hurdling start at Gowran in an average time, against an underperforming main rival and despite his jumping lacking in fluency (albeit he never looked likely to fall). He ran nine times on the Flat in France, staying at least ten furlongs and deemed good enough to run at Group Two level.
Sayo won his sole Irish start over hurdles at Naas despite, rather than because, of the state of his jumping. He ran five times on the Flat in France and stayed up to 12 furlongs. He would appear the least fancied of the Mullins team but is open to a massive amount of improvement if brushing up his technique.
Selections
Back now: Stormy Ireland at 6/1 with William Hill
Back now: Farclas at 7/1 with William Hill
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Whereas you no longer necessarily need a cauliflower-eared veteran of the ring for the Triumph, it’s pretty much essential for the Albert Bartlett – unless your horse happens to be a Grade One Cheltenham Festival-winning chaser of the future, like Bobs Worth or Weapon’s Amnesty.
So unless Santini is a future RSA or Gold Cup winner – to be fair: not impossible, at least in the case of the former race – then his comparatively marked inexperience (twice-raced over hurdles) could count against him here. There’s nothing wrong with his form, mind – he outstayed Black Op last time out and that horse found only Samcro too good in the Ballymore.
Stable companion Chef Des Obeaux looks a relatively suitable vessel, having won three times in testing going and with further bumper experience under his belt. Santini beat him comfortably on their hurdling debuts over a shorter trip at Newbury but I suspect he can reverse that form in these conditions. The further rain that’s fallen this week at Cheltenham is good news for him.
Chris’s Dream is also clearly a mudlark, following his 64-length demolition of a Clonmel Grade Three on his first start for Henry de Bromhead last time out. He needs to find more in this company.
I prefer the stoutly bred OK Corral over Tower Bridge of JP McManus’s pair, despite the former’s inexperience. The latter appeared to need every inch of a Leopardstown 2m6f Grade One last time but that race was deceptive, the leader Fabulous Saga having gone off too hard and the real contest proving a relative speed test. Tower Bridge looked lazy rather than anything else but no headgear has been applied and he may lack the requisite toughness.
There might have been an overreaction to that defeat of Fabulous Saga; he was sent off favourite that day. Ridden more conventionally in more suitable conditions can see him place at a big price. I was struck by how decisively he rallied after being headed late to win at Limerick two starts back. The going on the second day of New Course usage is likely to make this a rigorous test.
I certainly prefer him to owner-stablemate Real Steel, who’s switch here from two miles looks in hope rather than confidence, and Walsh’s putative pick Ballyward, the recent Naas winner who falls short on the experience count.
Dortmund Park, fourth behind Tower Bridge last time, has since had a wind operation. Again, the way that race was run didn’t appear to suit this thorough stayer and he looks overpriced at 25/1.
I still like this column’s 25/1 ante-post poke Poetic Rhythm, freshened up since his attritional Challow success and as a second-season hurdler. He was badly hampered prior to finishing well behind in last year’s Ballymore but has long looked in need of three miles and can bring his upwardly mobile trainer Fergal O’Brien a first Festival success.
Challow runner-up and 33/1 shot Mulcahys Hill recoiled from that aggressive ride in sapping conditions when below his best here behind Santini last time. He’ll love the ground and can outrun his odds. Challow third Kilbricken Storm returned with “a dirty nose”, is bred for the trip and also holds a better chance than 40/1 suggests.
Calett Mad deserves a mention after taking Musselburgh’s Pertemps Qualifier last time out. This will be his ninth hurdle start, having also run seven times over fences, so he won’t want for toughness.
Selections
Already advised 05/01/18: Poetic Rhythm 25/1 each-way for the Albert Bartlett with William Hill, Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook
Back now: Fabulous Saga each-way at 28/1 4 places (1/5 odds) with Sky Bet
Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
Best horse wins race and Might Bite is now a highly palatable 9/2, perhaps on the mistaken grounds that he wants for stamina. He does not.
They went a hectic pace in last year’s RSA until he went a bit faster and yet he was still able to ponder a quick one in the Guinness Village, slowing to a virtual halt, before rallying to reel in Whisper – who’s since failed by a neck to win the Ladbrokes Trophy off a mark of 161. That’s class.
It’s also quirkiness, of course, but trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey Nico de Boinville have been at pains to manage his reckless streak this season with a view to maximising his longevity at this level.
That plan was in evidence in the King George, for which close examination of at-first-unremarkable sectionals reveals that when allowed his head after the field crossed the all-weather pathway for the final circuit, he effortlessly broke down Bristol De Mai and won the race before idling from the third last.
His jumping in Kempton’s straight gives the lie to the argument he was a tired horse; Double Shuffle (highly suited by such a flat track but unproven here) and in particular Tea For Two were flattered to get so close. Testing ground is a concern but – as Altior showed on Wednesday – great talents find a way.
Our Duke is a key danger, with Presenting Percy having proved (if ever there was a doubt) that handing him a length beating while conceding 7lb is very smart form indeed. The main worry with him is a propensity to throw in a bad error at a critical moment.
Last year’s third Native River is solid. He was probably second best on merit in last year’s Gold Cup, having got in a fight with Djakadam a shade too far out. (A shade.) He racked up the experience last year, is proven at this track and arrives a fresh horse after a campaign comprising one run – a taking win in Newbury’s Denman Chase.
Don’t laugh but Djakadam is over-priced each-way at 33/1. You can make a slightly more tenuous argument for him being second best in 2017 had he not belted the second last after taking the fight to the race at the fourth last. He’s been undoubtedly below form this season but Cheltenham can revive and The Fellow famously won the Gold Cup in 1994 after finishing 2nd-2nd-4th in the three previous revewals.
Minella Rocco rallied to get past both Native River and Djakadam last year, after being outpaced, and as the winner of perhaps the deepest-ever edition of the NH Chase, has a chance on the same Elixir De Cheltenham argument.
As this year, he hit the deck in his Irish Gold Cup prep last term but this time it was an exhausted fall. Subsequent wind surgery may at least partly explain that but the likely ground is a divisive factor, placing a welcome accent on stamina but probably not being his favourite surface to jump out of.
For what it’s worth given his options, Barry Geraghty has chosen to partner Anibale Fly, who took a thumping fall at Leopardstown.
Increasing the stamina test poses a larger unanswered question for Road To Respect, who’s definitely an improver but must also jump better than he did early on in last year’s Plate. But it will suit both the unexposed miracle horse Edwulf and the imperturbable Definitly Red.
Supplemented American is fragile but talented; can trainer Harry Fry have pushed him harder in training for a go at the big one? Bachasson is lovely but looks too small and too low a jumper for this specific task.
Walsh had predictably chosen Killultagh Vic, whom I think would have won the Irish Gold Cup had he stood up at the last given it took so long for Edwulf to quell Outlander (always at his best at Leopardstown) whereas Mullins’ charge had just taken the lead as he executed his abortive Fosbury Flop.
Killultagh Vic is talented, no doubt, and likely to stay; the problem is that error was far from his first in that race or indeed his career. That means there are exactly 22 good reasons not to back him at 9/1 and they’re called fences.
Selection
Already advised 09/01/18: Minella Rocco 20/1 each-way for the Gold Cup with various firms
Back now: Might Bite at 9/2 with various firms
Other Day Four selections...
If you’re going to predict a Willie Mullins benefit, the Cheltenham Festival would seem a good place to do it. Hence, I’m siding with two of his novice hurdlers in two different handicaps on this last day of proceedings.
First, Whiskey Sour in the County Hurdle. That looked his ideal target after finishing fourth in the Deloitte last time out and the Festival exploits of Samcro, Duc De Genievres and Paloma Blue all suggest that was decent form for a handicap that should be run to suit.
Next, Carter McKay in the Martin Pipe. He wasn’t suited by the way Tower Bridge’s race panned out at Leopardstown last time – getting shuffled back and then rallying – but the likely strong gallop here should serve him well.
Finally, with my original selection Diego Du Charmil not even making it to the five-day stage in the Grand Annual, I’m going to have another dart at it with Top Gamble. This race in these conditions will be ideal for a horse good enough to finish fourth in the Champion Chase 12 months ago.
He’s run better than it appears on all four starts this season: three of them right-handed when he’s better going the other way around and one of them over a trip too far when the ground is testing. Trainer Kerry Lee has added cheekpieces to pep him up and taken the precaution of booking Davy Russell. Strong fancy.
Back now: Whiskey Sour each-way at 20/1 BOG 5 places 1/4 odds with Bet365
Back now: Carter McKay each-way at 14/1 BOG 5 places 1/5 odds with Sky Bet
Back now: Top Gamble each way at 20/1 BOG 5 places at 1/4 odds with Bet365
Already advised 04/03/18: Diego Du Charmil at 25/1 for the Grand Annual with Bet365 or Betfair Sportsbook – NON-RUNNER
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