Matt Brocklebank on Triple Crown chances of Justify

Justify has lived up to his name, and his billing as favourite, with victories in the 144th Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, and this weekend bids to become just the 13th horse in American racing history to complete the Triple Crown.

Under the guidance of Bob Baffert, and ridden by 'Big Money Mike' Smith, Justify has overcome a relative lack of experience and desperately bad conditions on both occasions to the win the first two legs for the trainer of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah.

He would be the first ever Triple Crown winner to have been unraced as a two-year-old.

Here, Matt Brocklebank takes a look at the history of the Triple Crown and provides his thoughts on whether Saturday will prove a step too far for the latest American dirt superstar.

What is the Triple Crown?

• May 5 – Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs (1m2f)
• May 19 - Preakness Stakes, Pimlico Racecourse (1m1f 110y)
• June 9 - Belmont Stakes, Belmont Park (1m4f)

In the United States, the Triple Crown refers to the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, the first two Classics contested over a mile and a quarter and the third over a mile and a half at Belmont Park in early June.

Compared to the English Triple Crown, the American series consists of races much closer together in the calendar, and over a narrower range of distances.

They are also all on dirt tracks, as opposed to the turf Classics in Britain.

How many Triple Crown winners have there been?

America - 12

• 2015 American Pharoah
• 1978 Affirmed
• 1977 Seattle Slew
• 1973 Secretariat
• 1948 Citation
• 1946 Assault
• 1943 Count Fleet
• 1941 Whirlaway
• 1937 War Admiral
• 1935 Omaha
• 1930 Gallant Fox
• 1919 Sir Barton

Compared to the English version, the Triple Crown is a more recent concept in American thoroughbred racing, the term only being used commonly after Gallant Fox's treble in 1930. However, including the earlier winner Sir Barton, there have been 12 Triple Crown heroes all told.

American Pharoah broke a 37-year wait when winning all three races in 2015 and he was trained by US Hall of Famer Baffert, who has compared his 2018 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify favourably to the 2015 champion.

Will Justify win the Belmont?

There’s not much respite when it comes to the Classics in America.

But Justify is clearly a rare talent – he became the first since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old – and he could not be in better hands when it comes to a Triple Crown bid.

Baffert – the best dirt trainer on the planet – himself broke a 37-year hex when American Pharoah became "the one" in 2015 and the silver-haired handler is already putting this son of Scat Daddy alongside that horse and his 2016 champion Arrogate in terms of raw quality and temperament.

In fact, he was buzzing about the horse's credentials after he won at Santa Anita on his second start on March 11, and he's delivered in style with three subsequent top-class victories.

The Kentucky Derby had just about everything: pace from the gate, a seriously strong tempo, an early move to the front and, above all, a maturity beyond his experience in handling the rain-drenched conditions in his first run on a sloppy track.

He was sent off a much shorter price in the Preakness, despite the quick turnaround, and while Smith admitted he felt "a little tired at the end" of the race, Justify held them all off once again. And appeared to do so without having a particularly hard race.

He is a huge specimen, a custom-built, top-class dirt machine who is a skinny price to race into immortality this weekend.

The biggest question facing him in the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes is that his stamina will be put to the test over a mile and a half.

When a man like Baffert looks his horse up and down and states "that's greatness right there", you’re inclined to agree.

But for Justify there has to be a question over how he copes physically with the demands of a gruelling Triple Crown campaign.

He's not been over-raced from the outset, that much is clear, and he's barely been asked to get deadly serious, but the Kentucky Derby and Preakness back-to-back must have taken plenty out of him and the step up to a mile and a half has caught out many a high-class horse in the past.

In total, 23 have won the first two legs of the American Triple Crown without completing the set, the most recent being a surprise defeat for California Chrome when fourth to Tonalist four years ago, and there's got to be at least a small chance that the exuberant Justify will fall into the bracket of being an exceptional, out-and-out 10-furlong performer, who may ultimately prove vulnerable when the whole world is watching in the Belmont this weekend.

Who are the main dangers, then?

Probably not Gronkowski, the former Jeremy Noseda representative who has been shipped to Chad Brown's yard following the split with Phoenix Thoroughbred.

He's unbeaten from four starts on the all-weather in Britain and could certainly make a splash for Brown later in the campaign, but this looks a tall order on his US bow.

Bravazo and Tenfold both caught the eye when finishing well to get hot on the heels of Justify late on in the Preakness, but their efforts may not be worth taking at face value as Justify had clearly done much of the hard work to see off fellow pace-setter Good Magic earlier in the straight.

The one to spoil the party could be Bill Mott's HOFBURG, who is a much fresher horse after skipping the Preakness entirely.

That decision was made following his seventh in the Kentucky Derby when he didn't get the ideal trip and was looked after when his chance had gone.

His earlier second to Audible in the Florida Derby reads quite well and Mott has sounded quite bullish in recent days regarding the horse's development since Churchill. The Juddmonte-owned son of Tapit is 9/2 second-favourite and he rates a serious threat to all.

Moving up to a mile and a half promises to suit ideally given he's a son of Tapit, sire of three of the past four Belmont winners.

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