Churchill (r) wins the Guineas
Churchill (r) wins the Guineas

Irish Eyes previews today's Irish 2000 Guineas card


Irish Eyes thinks there's value in the 'without Churchill' market ahead of today's Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas.

It’s Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas day at the Curragh and it has to be said that whilst the feature races has attracted a terribly disappointing field – as has the Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes - the supporting card is quite competitive despite four of the seven races being restricted to two places for betting purposes. 

The bet of the day comes in the feature race and no, it’s not the 2/7 favourite Churchill. He should win comfortably, as he is likely to have improved significantly from his Newmarket run, but value lies in the market without the favourite.

One horse has stood out as being head and shoulders above the rest since betting opened for this event and that is Churchill's stablemate, Lancaster Bomber.

Much has been made about the second favourite for today’s race, Irishcorrespondent, who remains unbeaten from two starts and smacks of a horse who could be a major improver.

However he did not see the race track until April and today, a mere seven weeks on from his debut, he is expected – predicted even by virtue of his price - to finish second in a Classic.

Throw in the fact that he is not trained by Aidan O’Brien, coupled with the time of his second start being 4.22 seconds slower than standard and that is very puzzling indeed.

However our job is not to question the wisdom of others but to pounce when they get it wrong by placing value on hype over substance. We’ve spoken about the horse who is favourite in this market already, now let’s look at the rest.

Thunder Snow is rated within 4lb of Churchill and therefore the second highest-rated horse in race, and he did beat Lancaster Bomber in the UAE Derby which probably supports the fact he is a pound higher than the O’Brien runner.

Consequently, it is arguably he who should be favourite in the betting without Churchill. Indeed he might well have been, but for missing the kick in the Kentucky Derby last time due to a likely tack malfunction.

However, Lancaster Bomber missed the start himself in Dubai and the race certainly did not work out for him there. What's more, in a truly run Dewhurst he finished almost a length ahead of Thunder Snow and on that form holds an edge.

In the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, Lancaster Bomber was a mere length and a quarter off Churchill in fourth, despite setting the pace.

Whilst there is an argument to be made for Thunder Snow today at 5/2 it has to be said that we cannot be sure he would have finished so close at Newmarket and that form is head and shoulders above everything else in today’s race.

Therefore prices in the region of 15/8 about Lancaster Bomber in the betting without Churchill gets the nap vote this afternoon.

In the Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes, Turret Rocks is favourite following her Group 3 win at the track two weeks ago.

Despite winning twice over a mile as a two-year-old, she appeared to need every yard of the 10 furlongs last time out – in keeping with her pedigree, being a Fastnet Rock out of a Galileo mare – so it is difficult to see how she will prevail dropped back to a mile today, especially in a five-runner race without much pace on. 

Ordinarily the likely front-runner would have been Creggs Pipes but she has come into season and is therefore not guaranteed to be able to fulfil those duties with much gusto. 

It is also puzzling that she is as low as 5/1 considering the last time she was reported as in season she ran terribly in a handicap. Kevin Manning is a master tactician and he will no doubt attempt to set a good pace this afternoon but that is likely to play into the hands of the English challenger, Opal Tiara.

She is the best horse in today’s race and a mere reproduction of her last run alone should see her prevail.

On her first run since returning from Dubai she finished a staying on fourth, beaten a shade over two lengths behind Sovereign Debt, Gabrial and Jallota in a Sandown Group 2 so it is somewhat surprising to see she is trading as big as 100/30 in the same grade but back against her own sex.

In fact, it’s difficult to see why there are two in front of her in the betting at all.  Mick Channon has engaged the services of the in-form Ronan Whelan, the man widely expected to fill Manning’s shoes at Coolcullen one day, and Mr Bolger will be first to congratulate him should he come out on top.

Irish Eyes selections


Nap: Lancaster Bomber (w/o Churchill) at 15/8

Next Best: Opal Tiara at 3/1


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