Jake Pearson previews the major weekend action in America

Risen Star Stakes (G2) – Fair Grounds – 16/02/19 - Kentucky Derby Prep Race

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This race is the second of three Kentucky Derby trial races held annually at Fair Grounds Race Course. The first instalment was last month where we saw War Of Will run away a convincing winner in the Lecomte Stakes. Six of the horses entered for this race ran that day and five of them never really looked like getting to the victor. It is difficult to make much of a case for any of these runners reversing the form but proceedings have been complicated a little with the current favourite being drawn wide in stall 14.

That draw definitely puts a spanner in the works for Mark Casse’s colt as he will have to show blistering early speed to get out in front otherwise risk being chauffeured towards the outside of the track and losing a potentially vital couple of lengths early on. An awful lot will rest on whether or not the son of War Front breaks quickly as he is most definitely a pace setter. If he gets bogged in behind a lot of horses he could struggle to find his stride.

The Gary Barber owned bay has been arguably the most impressive Kentucky Derby trial winner thus far. His victory in the Lecomte was comprehensive and should he get to the front with a clear run here he will certainly take some catching. The draw is undoubtedly a setback for connections but the likelihood is that he will still have a part to play in this year’s first leg of the Triple Crown irrelevant of his finishing position this weekend.

Looking back at the Lecomte it really is difficult to make a case for any of the returning challengers. Manny Wah, Plus Que Parfait, Chase The Ghost and Roiland were all in with a chance turning for home but could not keep pace with the winner and faded badly in the final furlong.

The only horse that finished the race strongly was the runner-up Hog Creek Hustle. The son of Overanalyze was restrained early on and kept hidden in midfield for the majority of the race. He started to loom around the last bend and picked up nicely to pass all but one horse. Vickie Foley’s colt still finished four lengths back and, while he passed a number of waning horses, he was never getting closer to the victor. However, he recorded a career best Equibase Speed Figure of 100 for that performance and there is surely hope that if things do not go to plan for War Of Will, this three-year-old could be the best of the rest and the one to be on at an appetising price.

There are a handful of fresh faces entered here that did not run in the Lecomte and it is entirely feasible that one of these could burst onto the scene and take the spoils. First up is the interesting Henley’s Joy who will be making his dirt debut on Saturday should he fulfil his entry. After breaking his maiden at the first time of asking the Michael Maker colt went on to finish first in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes and second in the Grade Three Bourbon Stakes. This earned him a place in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf but the then two-year-old turned in a disappointing display and finished 13th. The son of Kitten’s Joy bounced back quickly though with a win in the Pulpit Stakes in December and a second in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes earlier this year.

Unquestionably there is a marked between the turf and the dirt and it is possible the Henley’s Joy will not make the transition well - his pedigree doesn’t particularly suggest that he would. Nevertheless, he arguably possesses the best form in the race in terms of standard of races competed in and won. He has also recorded four 90+ Equibase Speed Figures in his career – only War Of Will has secured more.

It is definitely a risky tactic taking a punt on the untested but if the Bloom Racing owned colt does happen to take to the surface, his odds would certainly be on the large side.

A little further down the list we find last time out winner Country House. He is currently available at a price of just below double figures with the majority of UK bookmakers but the US morning line odds have him at a much bigger 20/1. The William Mott trained colt broke his maiden at the third time of asking last month but it was not all smooth sailing as he meandered well back in last place for much of the race before showing a good turn of foot to pass the entire field around the final bend and win going away.

The level of competition he faced on that day still remains to be seen as it was just a maiden race but he did post an Equibase Speed Figure of 92 which is a pretty decent return regardless of opposition. In his previous race he finished runner up to last week’s Derby trial second Kentucky Wildcat and recorded an even better ESP of 94. There are plenty of positives surrounding this runner and were he available at the mouth-watering price of 20/1 then he would certainly be worth a bet. Unfortunately though, he seems to have been cottoned onto by a few of the British firms and it would not be surprising should he start the race nearer to the top of the market than the bottom.

Verdict: War Of Will is undoubtedly the horse to beat. His comfortable victory against five of these runners last time out makes it difficult to see the Lecomte form being reversed. However, the draw will certainly play a big part and this season has not been kind to favourites in previous Derby trials.

Country House could yet emerge into something of a formidable horse. He looks to have the turn of foot to win a race that should have a red hot pace but his overall class is still in doubt.

The horse who’s class in not in doubt is Henley’s Joy. The son of Kitten’s Joy has some very impressive form and has already produced on big occasions. There is the obvious question mark over his ability to handle the dirt track but considering his current double figure price, this seems like a risk worth taking on.

(The Risen Star Stakes is worth 50 Kentucky Derby entry points for the winner, 20 for second, 10 for third and 5 for fourth)

Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) – Fair Grounds – 16/02/2019 - Kentucky Oaks Prep Race

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In the same fashion as the Risen Star Stakes, this race is also the second edition of a three race Kentucky prep series. Last month saw Fair Grounds host the Silverbulletday Stakes which featured three runners also scheduled to appear here this Saturday. The winner that day was Needs Supervision so that seems the logical place to start the preview.

The daughter of Paynter secured her third consecutive win in the Silverbulletday Stakes along with ten qualifying points for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. She is available at around 14/1 for the big race but considering what she has actually achieved, that seems on the short side.

In contrast to her antepost price, despite winning her previous three starts including an Oaks trial, she comes into this race as something of an unwanted commodity as far as punters are concerned. At a current price of 4/1 she is relatively easy to back considering her previous dominance over a handful of this field.

It is a push to make a case for any other Silverbulletday runners making a half-decent go of it here. Liora was sent off favourite against Needs Supervision but the filly failed to fire and finished a disappointing fourth. Eres Tu did fare much better as she rallied to finish runner-up. Steven Asmussen’s filly’s previous form showed no signs of that performance so perhaps she is beginning to mature as a racehorse. She is more than double the price of Needs Supervision despite finishing just ¾ length back last month and may be worth a small each way play.

Moving on from the Silverbulletday Stakes runners and we come to the current race favourite, Positive Spirit. This Rodolphe Brisset filly really does look like the real deal. She broke her maiden at the third time of asking at Churchill Downs last year after finishing third and second respectively in her first two starts that however, was just the tip of the iceberg. After winning her first race she was entered in the Grade Two Demoiselle Stakes at Aqueduct. She breezed through the race with insurmountable ease before looming up on the final bend. She left her rivals trailing in her wake as she accelerated away to win by 10 ½ lengths. That earned the half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming ten qualifying points for this year’s Oaks – putting her level with Needs Supervision.

In fourth place that day was Molto Bella who also holds an entry here. This daughter of Violence was last seen on the racecourse dismantling the Listed Gasparilla Stakes field by 6 ½ lengths while posting a highly impressive Equibase Speed Figure of 98. That puts her in with an outside shot here but it also poses the question: how good does that make Positive Spirit?

It is clear that there are a total of 85 qualifying points available from this race as it has attracted a field of top class racehorses. This is arguably best Oaks trial we have seen so far this year in terms of depth of quality and to reiterate that fact is the entry of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner Serengeti Empress.

This is the seasonal debut for the daughter of Alternation after finishing seventh in a tough race at the Breeders’. She didn’t have enough to compete on that day but that is not much of an indictment considering the quality of the competition. It did show that the Oaks itself looks to be slightly out of her grasp but that does not mean that a race like this is.

Before her last appearance she put in one of the performances of the year winning the Grade Two Pocahontas Stakes by a remarkable 19 ½ lengths. That was her second win on the bounce and it earned her her place in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

It is a worry that she has not been seen on a racecourse since November of last year while many of the other entrants already have one or two races under their belt this season but perhaps the break will have done her good.

Verdict: While there are a few interesting outside chances in reality this race looks to be a three way tussle involving Serengeti Empress, Needs Supervision and Positive Spirit.

There is no doubting the ability of Serengeti Empress and she must be in with a real chance here. Still, it is never easy to tell how a horse is going to react to a lay-off and I can’t help but wonder whether connections could have found her an easier return race.

Needs Supervision already has a win under her belt over course and distance and that will be a huge positive. She is drawn high but with just the nine runners that shouldn’t be much of an issue. The question mark over this filly is the quality of opposition she has faced. While other entrants have already lined up in graded stakes while O’Dwyer’s filly’s biggest test came last time out in a listed event which she won by less than a length.

It’s a bit of a cop out to put up the favourite as tip but Positive Spirit looks so impressive it is really difficult to find any way to oppose her. Her display in the Demoiselle was beyond impressive and that run has since been franked by Molto Bella. She has a nice draw in stall four and she can use this race to really impose herself on the Kentucky Oaks market.

(The Rachel Alexandra Stakes is worth 50 Kentucky Oaks entry points for the winner, 20 for second, 10 for third and 5 for fourth)

El Camino Real Derby – Golden Gate Fields – 16/02/2019 - Kentucky Derby Prep Race

Despite being commonly used in the UK and Ireland, tapeta is seldom seen in America. Golden Gate Fields is one of the only racetracks in the States that still runs on the synthetic surface and that adds a little extra angle to this race. For this reason a handful of the contenders are home-grown Golden Gate horses specialising on this specific track.

The main flagbearer for these local horses would probably be Anothertwistafate who already has two victories to his name over this all-weather track. The son of Scat Daddy has only three races to his name and has lots of room for improvement. However, though both his victories came at this course - which is definitely a plus – neither performance achieved a particularly high speed figure calling into question the quality of opposition faced.

The Blaine Wright trained colt is certainly the best of the ‘local’ horses but is probably punching a little above his weight here. For this reason we can rule out him along with Angelo’s Pride, Data Hawk, Rey Coliman and Mayor Cobb.

The current race favourite is the Bob Baffert trained Kingly. This is an intriguing entry as initially the selection was entered for the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds but Baffert has elected to try his luck here instead. While both races are preps for this year’s Derby, the 10 points on offer for the victor here is completely dwarfed by the 50 for the Risen Star. That would suggest that the Hall Of Fame trainer is not confident in his mount competing in what looks to be a better quality of race at Fair Grounds. There are two ways of viewing this decision; either connections have spotted an easier assignment for their horse with the prospect of easy Derby qualifying points or alternatively, connections lack confidence in their colt and would like to see if he can cut the mustard against weaker opposition before throwing him in with tried and tested graded runners. If you believe that the former is true he would represent good value at around 9/4 but if you are inclined to believe the latter then he begins to look like something of a vulnerable favourite.

The son of Tapit has seen the racecourse just twice in his career breaking his maiden on debut before finishing second next time out in an allowance optional claimer. Both of these runs yielded impressive Equibase Speed Figures which suggest that there is certainly ability there but the question still whether he can produce against a higher calibre of opposition.

A more experienced runner that is quite likeable at a price of around 6/1 is King Of Speed. This colt has run on both the turf and the dirt which would suggest that he is an easily adaptable sort which should handle the surface at Golden Gate. It took him until his fourth start – in the Listed Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes – to break his maiden but that was a very impressive performance backed up by a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf prep race the Zuma Beach Stakes at Santa Anita. After two wins on the bounce he drew a blank on Breeders’ Cup day finishing in 12th place and he did not exactly bounce back to form afterwards as he could only manage a sixth place finish in the Grade One Los Alamitos Futurity. This is the first outing of the season for the Jeff Bonde colt and if he can recapture the ability he showed early on in his career then he is undoubtedly a serious contender but his poor end to last year – albeit in two Grade One events – would be legitamite cause for concern.

If you are looking to take on those at the top of the market with something at a bigger price then you may not need to look much further than More Ice. This Jerry Hollendorfer colt broke his maiden on his third start at Del Mar before finishing down the field in the Listed Zuma Beach Stakes; which was won by King Of Speed. That was a little disappointing as the three-year-old faded late on but he bounced back next time out as he won an allowance optional claimer with a respectable Equibase Speed Figure of 93. It is his last run however which is the most interesting of all as the son of More Than Ready ran third in the Listed Eddie Logan Stakes, again recording an ESF of 93. Despite finishing 4 ¼ behind the leader, More Ice beat home The Creep and Weekly Call – both who hold entries in the El Camino Real Derby – but more impressively Sparky Ville, who has since turned out and won the Grade Two San Vincente Derby prep. This is a pretty good line of form as far as this year’s Derby trail is concerned and it would not be too surprising to see this colt back in the winner’s enclosure.

Verdict: The horse with the most impressive form here is King Of Speed. He has mixed it with the best and already has two Listed victories to his name. If you can forgive him his last two runs – which is not being overly generous considered the calibre of races they were in – then he could represent a bit of value. Unfortunately, it is impossible to tell how well a horse will return after a lay-off and for this reason he can be passed up.

Kingly has shown the ability to excel into a very good horse and if he is to do so you would be hard pushed to find a more suitable trainer than Bob Baffert to harness that talent. He is exactly the sort that you should be looking at to win these kind of races but as of yet he hasn’t actually achieved that much and it is hard to justify his short priced favouritism.

At a bigger price of around 10/1 More Ice offers much better value for money. He has good previous form to back him up and with horses such as Anothertwistafate and Kingly expected to set a very fast early pace, the race could be nicely set up for his late running style.

(The El Camino Real Derby is worth 10 Kentucky Derby entry points for the winner, 4 for second, 2 for third and 1 for fourth)