Stobart Flat Jockeys Championship preview

Around this time last year I argued that Silvestre de Sousa was a fair price to justify favouritism and retain his Stobart Jockeys' title.

De Sousa's title bid came up short as Jim Crowley picked up a head of steam and suspensions cost the Brazilian dearly with a 12-day ban from the start of July ruling him out of a busy period.

Even at that stage, Crowley wasn't widely quoted with De Sousa 4/7, Ryan Moore 3/1 and Andrea Atzeni at 7/1 the top three in the betting. However, he rode 22 winners to De Sousa's seven in July - the difference was just 16 at the end of the season - and outscored his rival by 16 in August and 23 in September as he finished the season powerfully.

Three-time champion Richard Hughes always used to say that they (he and his team) would look at the championship after Glorious Goodwood and, as shown last season, it's clearly possible to build momentum in the latter months if you're close enough and have the backing.

Crowley struck up a very successful partnership with Hugo Palmer last term (they teamed up for 20 winners which was more than Crowley rode for any other trainer) but he is now first jockey to Hamdan Al Maktoum while Palmer has employed Josephine Gordon and opportunities will therefore be more limited.

Other doors may open and perhaps Crowley's new job will provide access to yards that he hasn't ridden for all that often previously. He has stated his intention to try and retain his title but it will not be easy with his schedule being largely dictated to him.

It's therefore no surprise to see the current champion quoted at 8/1, behind De Sousa at 7/4 and Paul Hanagan at 9/4.

Suspensions, or otherwise, could play a big role in De Sousa's title hopes but he wasn't far away last season and has a wide support base which will stand him in good stead. He looks the right favourite.

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Hanagan was successful in both 2010 and 2011 and is reunited with Richard Fahey after a spell as Al Maktoum's retained jockey.

In his absence, Tony Hamilton made the most of his opportunities and it will not be easy for Fahey to shuffle his team of jockeys but numbers are up in the yard and it seems clear that Hanagan will have first choice.

He still rode 60 winners in the last championship - Fahey provided the most with 10 - and could easily challenge if the desire to chase the title is there and he may feel that he has a point to prove after losing a high-profile position.

The layers haven't missed a trick though and the front two in the market look to be the right way round and at about the right prices.

Ryan Moore invariably starts the season well before international commitments take over from late-summer into the autumn. He could well shorten from his top price of 10s but his likely schedule is well known now and the layers may not overreact to a flying start with that in mind. 

He's the same price as Andrea Atzeni, who finished third last year with 88 (60 behind Crowley), but I'm not convinced that the Sardinian (or Moore) will have the desire to chase quantity over and above quality, which is the essential requirement.

The quality of the rides that they get will guarantee a certain number of winners but it's unlikely to be sufficient to see them crowned champion.

William Buick, Fran Berry and Adam Kirby are all available at 20/1. 

Buick is in a similar boat to Atzeni and Moore while Berry's attempts to establish himself in his first season in Great Britain were hampered by injury. He has the backing of Ralph Beckett's stable and could mount a challenge if gaining momentum and backing from other yards.

The mileage required to win the title is extraordinary with Crowley and De Sousa both taking 759 rides during last season's race; a total that only Luke Morris came close to matching.

Kirby rode 77 winners from 483 rides and it's possible that he might be willing to spread himself more thinly in search of more opportunities but both he and Berry have young families and it's a big extra commitment to make for people who are already stretched.

There is a gap to fill left by the sad absence of George Baker who rode 61 winners last season.

He had more rides for Roger Charlton than any other jockey and Berry could be well placed to step up, both geographically and having enjoyed success for Charlton last season.

That hasn't passed people by though and early quotes of 50/1 and 33/1 have long since evaporated and he's as short as 12/1 in places.

Paul Mulrennan enjoyed one of his best seasons to date in 2016 and Danny Tudhope has the backing of David O'Meara, but with both Hanagan and De Sousa based in the north as well, competition for rides will be fierce.

They are priced at 100/1 and 66/1 respectively and the former price is the one being quoted about Tom Marquand who looks well placed to take the next step in his first season as a fully fledged jockey. 

He will get lots of opportunities for Richard Hannon and has been used regularly by Charlton and should enjoy another successful season but it is probably too soon in his career to expect him to mount a title challenge.

Pinpointing an outsider in a well established market that could mount a surprise challenge is obviously not easy but Tudhope makes more appeal than most.

He rode 110 winners in 2014 (calendar year as opposed to title race) and could get off to a fast start if O'Meara's string hits the ground running and, as we saw with Crowley, it's possible for that momentum to build through the season.

The race does look as obvious as the market suggests though and of those at the head of the betting, Hanagan is preferred to De Sousa as you get the feeling that both he and Fahey are delighted to be teaming up again.

It's easy to envisage that contentment being translated to success on the course and both men would take pleasure in rebuilding a reputation that took a few knocks during the course of last season.

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