Graham Cunningham: Guineas picture taking shape but Joseph O'Brien could hold aces

You don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to decipher what tends to happen on Guineas weekend nowadays.

Britain's best gather having shown their hands during Craven and Greenham week – then Aidan O’Brien rolls in to ace the home team with a star prepared behind closed doors on the Ballydoyle gallops.

Holmes was adamant that "it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data." Fortunately, we now have a reasonably strong body of data about both the season’s first Classics and the following conclusions seem reasonable.

Clues paint a Pretty picture

1000 GUINEAS

Santa Barbara is probably very good. Aidan told ATR’s Kevin Blake that she has "an unbelievable amount of class” and “just toys with horses in her work."

Add in the visual of a commanding Curragh debut (despite an unusually high head carriage) and it could easily add up to a seventh 1000 Guineas for Ballydoyle. But Santa Barbara is the price of a crack filly before she’s proved herself as such. In short, my dear Watson, her lack of experience and ever-contracting price compel us to seek further evidence.

The application of a tongue tie and Ryan Moore helped Sacred master Saffron Beach in the Nell Gwyn but more will be needed over an extra furlong on Guineas day.

The latter comment also applies to the Dubai Duty Free Stakes winner Alcohol Free, but the race that most still refer to as the Fred Darling deserves attention.

A clutch of Group race winners failed to fire at Newbury but last year’s Cheveley Park winner handled the step up to seven furlongs well in getting the better of a tussle with Statement. Andrew Balding’s filly might just stay a mile, while the underrated Statement looks sure to be suited by the Guineas trip. In fact, she might just improve for it.

Now to a couple of cold cases that warrant close consideration. Bargain-buy Fev Rover thrived at two and shouldn’t be underestimated but there is a strong case for saying the key clues to this year’s 1000 Guineas have been provided by Pretty Gorgeous.

Joseph O’Brien’s filly has plenty of what you look for in a potential Guineas winner after showing progressive Group One form – backed up by smart times – at both the Curragh and Newmarket in 2020.

RTV’s Nick Luck chose an apt way to describe last year’s Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket by saying that Pretty Gorgeous "ambled into the race as if she had all the time in the world."

The winning margin was just half a length as the Lawman filly wore down the May Hill winner Indigo Girl, but Pretty Gorgeous gave the strong impression she was doing no more than was necessary.

In short, she has the best form in the race – form produced over course and distance – and her trainer seems very confident that faster conditions next weekend won’t be an issue.

Moon on the rise for Aidan’s son

2000 GUINEAS

At 9/2 the field with nearly all of last year’s best juveniles in the mix, this is what Holmes might have termed a three-pipe problem.

The picture will look a little clearer this time next week once jockey plans and the draw are finalised but, in the meantime, the following points may be worth noting.

Aidan O'Brien holds a powerful hand as he chases an 11th 2000 success but his pecking order isn’t clearly defined.

Battleground looked very good at Goodwood last summer, while St Mark’s Basilica and Wembley thrived in the autumn and showed high-class form to finish first and second in the Dewhurst.

Which way Ryan Moore jumps will help shape the market and William Buick faces an equally ticklish choice with Doyle – that’s James not Sir Arthur Conan – waiting in the wings if he sticks with gambled-on One Ruler ahead of Craven winner Master Of The Seas.

Jim Bolger would have made a very good Sherlock in another life and adds another Group One player to the cast in Mac Swiney, while Chindit proved he has trained on with a gritty Greenham win but didn’t do enough to suggest he’s progressed enough to beat what looks a very deep Guineas field.

And then we come to Joseph O'Brien's Thunder Moon, who came a long way in a fairly short time at two, bolting up on his debut then proving himself among the very best of his generation by winning the Group One National Stakes and finishing third in the Dewhurst.

It’s true to say that the National and the Dewhurst were messy races, but Thunder Moon showed a potent burst of speed to beat a host of good rivals with authority at the Curragh and caught the eye travelling powerfully again in the Dewhurst until the effort of racing without cover well away from the favoured stand rail took a toll.

It’s well worth noting that Thunder Moon has had just three races – fewer than all the other leading Guineas contenders – and the instant acceleration he showed in the National gives a broad hint that his best is yet to come.

The Guineas game is afoot, then. Don’t be surprised if O'Brien is the name on the roll of honour again next week. But that man Holmes also said "there is nothing more obvious than a deceptive fact."

And the facts for this year’s 1000 and 2000 – deceptive or otherwise – suggest that Joseph could play every bit as big a part as his illustrious father Aidan.

Just Sayette No doesn’t cut it as cocaine issue intensifies

Conan Doyle’s writings on Holmes implied that the fictional sleuth only resorted to cocaine when boredom took hold due to lack of suitable cases to work on.

Modern day jockey chroniclers are every bit as good at standing by their men – even to the point of outright denial in extreme cases – but the news that star apprentice Benoit De La Sayette has become the latest rider to return a positive sample could mark an important fork in the sentencing road.

Professional Jockeys’ Association boss Paul Struthers opted for the time-honoured opening gambit on Lucky’s influential daily podcast by stressing that "racing reflects society" before adding that various positive tests have been linked to mental health challenges.

The fact that most of us don’t earn a living steering 1100lb thoroughbreds through tight gaps at 40mph puts a different and dangerous spin on the wider societal argument.

And the fact that veteran journeyman Adrian McCarthy was A THOUSAND times over British racing's cocaine threshold when he rode at Chelmsford last October provides a terrifying example of the recklessness shown in extreme cases.

De La Sayette is the fifth British-based rider to fail a cocaine test in the last 10 months and – with three different champions having served suspension time over the years – the search for a solution is pressing and clearly not confined to those strugglers at the bottom of the ladder.

Struthers sees a combination of increased testing – especially of hair samples – and stiffer penalties as the way forward.

It was refreshing to see a couple of riders adding frank views on Twitter this week but there seemed an underlying doubt in Struthers’ voice when he pondered whether banning offenders for nine or even 12 months rather than six would have the desired effect.

The choice now seems to lie between retaining the six-month ban – along with a steady stream of positive tests and apology tours – or lengthening bans in the hope of making offenders think twice.

Studies on the deterrent effect of harsher punishments for drug users in the wider world don’t inspire maximum confidence in the latter option, but racing clearly needs to revisit its drug problem.

The Trump defence – that increased testing only leads to a frustrating number of new cases – simply doesn’t cut it.

Stowell storm leaves key questions hanging

You know it’s been a rum sporting week when the lads at UEFA and FIFA are claiming moral high ground with a straight face.

Racing couldn’t compete with the outrage that followed the ESL’s gangster move but the flak was flying in Robert Havlin’s direction after John and Thady Gosden’s newcomer Stowell roared home from well back to get within a head of long odds-on stablemate Polling Day at Lingfield on Wednesday.

What played out over the next few hours was a striking example of the ‘major stable in overly gentle introduction’ genre.

Sky Sports Racing’s Jason Weaver was charged with catching the hot potato on air and juggled it in a way that did him appreciable credit, describing Havlin’s effort as "very, very kid gloves" and Stowell as "the absolute eyecatcher."

Twitter rained down predictably swift judgement as it emerged that Stowell had reeled off quickfire closing splits of 11.56s and 11.51s under bizarrely half-hearted assistance.

The stewards took their time before banning Havlin for 21 days for failing to take all reasonable and permissible measures to ensure Stowell obtained his best possible placing.

And John and Thady avoided censure even though their representative stated that he was happy with the ride and that it accorded with instructions given to Havlin.

Now this wasn’t a case of a youngster being tenderly handled down the field. This was a clear case of a horse who would surely have beaten his stablemate had he been asked for a meaningful effort and, not for the first time, it’s easy to be left wondering on several levels.

• What would a similar incident have produced in the southern hemisphere? They do things differently in Hong Kong and Australia but let’s just say there would have been a polite yet very firm request for various mobile phones to be handed in followed by a detailed investigation spread over several weeks, ending with a ban or bans measured in months not weeks.
• Why wasn’t Stowell banned? He would have been outed for 40 days had the charge related to schooling and conditioning in public but failing to take all reasonable and permissible measures carries no similar sanction.
• In a world where it seems that even our prime minister can readily be contacted on his mobile, does the second-hand input of a trainer's rep really represent a firm foundation to base important stewarding verdicts on?
• And when the trainer or trainers in a controversial case like this are absent, isn’t it worth shelving the outdated Action This Day strategy for a delayed hearing giving all relevant parties the time and space to address the issues in full detail?

Havlin’s move not to contest the decision seems extremely wise, not least because an appeal would have sparked a completely fresh hearing with the unlikely but possible chance of a new panel pondering Rule 46, which stipulates that a jockey must not ride in such a way which is in the interests of a horse from the same stable.

A reasonable observer might consider that Rule 46 covered what happened in the Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 535 Novice Stakes very neatly indeed.

And, for those unfamiliar with every nook and cranny of the online Rule Book, it’s interesting to note that a breach of that rule also carries potentially serious consequences for the trainer (or trainers).

Loss of Lorna cuts deep

It didn’t make national headlines amid the blizzard of ESL chatter but the death of amateur rider Lorna Brooke hit hard for the simple reason that nothing in her life came remotely close to the thrill of race riding.

Brooke’s passing follows the death of 21-year-old French apprentice Romane Brizard, killed in a fall in May 2019, while Aussie riders Mikaela Claridge and Melanie Tyndall lost their lives within 24 hours of each other a few months later.

Four female jockeys lost in action in less than two years, following on from the death of another Aussie – Simone Montgomerie – during the 2013 Darwin Cup meeting.

Yes, it’s much too small a sample to start drawing alarming conclusions from.

But it’s large enough to fear that the growing number of women who share Brooke’s blazing desire do so in the grim knowledge that their passion can come at a devastatingly high price.

No need to hassle the HOF

What’s not to like about the belated yet welcome creation of a Racing Hall of Fame and the industry bouncers tasked with moving its velvet rope to say either "welcome" or "your name’s not down, you’re not coming in."

Ageless ITV sage Brough Scott MBE was solid value at 1.01 to figure on the judging body and will provide priceless first-hand insight into the claims of Fred Archer and Sceptre if ever a Legacy category is created.

Fellow media luminaries Jamie Lynch, Lydia Hislop, Alan Byrne and Emma Berry can be relied on to add positive input and, given the right industry support, this is a project that should have legs.

The organisers have wisely made provision for one horse a year to be inducted into the hallowed Hall by public vote and, had they hired yours truly on a lucrative consultancy, that concept would be extended to include at least one two-legged entrant.

That quibble aside, it’s fun to imagine the exchanges as judges conduct bi-annual induction debates in years to come.

Will the august panel be able to separate the art from the artist to usher Sheikh Mohammed in?

Do Aidan and Frankie cross the threshold ahead of older greats like Sir Henry and Lester - and will the Broughster have to recuse himself at some point as debate rages over his own place in the pantheon?

Only time will tell but the HOF concept has added considerable value to the coverage of American sports for decades.

It seems tailor made for racing’s legion of gnarled old nostalgia buffs but, with Great British Racing’s Rod Street pulling the promotional strings, this has the makings of something that will hold equal appeal to relative rookie fans, too.

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